Albert Belle is eligible for the Hall of Fame next month, as one of eight candidates on the Contemporary Baseball Players Committee ballot. If the Hall of Fame were only about fame, there are few players from the 1990s who generated more headlines than the enigmatic Belle. During his brief career, which ended shortly after his 34th birthday due to a degenerative hip condition, there were few hitters in baseball more feared than Belle. For all players with at least 5,000 plate appearances, his .564 career slugging percentage is the 13th-best ever.
Belle was also the source of endless controversy due to his temper and a general disdain for the media. Now Belle has another chance at Cooperstown. The Contemporary Baseball Players Committee ballot is the modern version of what was known for a long time as the Veterans Committee. A panel of 16 media members, executives, and Hall of Famers will examine the Cooperstown resumes of eight candidates whose primary contribution to the game occurred after 1980. The other seven men on the ballot are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, and Dale Murphy.
If Belle (or any of the other candidates) receives 75% of the vote (12 out of 16), he’ll be inducted into the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2023. Although he looks like a real longshot in this field, if Belle makes it, it will be because of his peak performance case and because the majority of committee members are “hard-liners” against players who used performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs).
Cooperstown Cred: Albert Belle (LF)
2 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 3.5% of the vote in 2007)
- Indians (1989-96), White Sox (1997-98), Orioles (1999-2000)
- Career: .295 BA, .369 OBP, .564 SLG, 381 HR, 1.239 RBI
- Career: 144 OPS+, 40.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
- Finished in the top 3 of A.L. MVP voting three straight years (1994-96)
- Led A.L. in RBI three times (1993, ’95, ’96)
- Only player in MLB history with 50 HR & 50 doubles in one season (1995)
- 5-time All-Star
- 5-time Silver Slugger
(cover photo: Reuters)
Albert “Joey” Belle in High School and College:
Albert Jojuan Belle was born on August 25, 1966, in Shreveport, Louisiana. His father (Albert Belle Sr.) was a high school baseball and football coach. His mother Carrie was a math teacher. The young “Joey” Belle was a model student and an Eagle Scout. He graduated sixth in his high school class and was a member of the National Honor Society. He was offered an appointment to the U.S. Air Force Academy after graduating high school. Instead, he stayed home to take a baseball scholarship at nearby Louisiana State University.
Belle’s personality changed for the worse during his college years. People close to him said he didn’t respond well to the pressure of the predictions that he would be a top draft pick. In his junior year, Belle chased after a fan who shouted racial insults during an SEC tournament game, causing him to be suspended for the rest of the postseason.
Despite the controversy, after three years at LSU, Belle was selected by the Cleveland Indians in the second round of the 1987 player draft.
Early Years with the Cleveland Indians
Joey Belle made his MLB debut on July 15, 1989, just two years after being drafted, and got his first hit off future Hall of Fame Nolan Ryan. He struggled in his rookie campaign, hitting just .225 with a woeful .269 OBP in 234 plate appearances.
Belle also got off to a slow start with the Indians in 1990 (hitting .174 in 9 games) and was sent back to the minors (Colorado Springs in AAA). While in the minors, there was an incident in which Belle smashed a bathroom sink to pieces. A closet drinker and serious abuser of alcohol, Belle went into rehab for 10 weeks at the Cleveland Clinic.
The Indians’ troubled outfielder entered rehabilitation as Joey Belle but emerged as Albert Belle, the name change that was meant to symbolize a fresh start in life. Belle, now going by Albert, became a full-time player in Cleveland in 1991. In 123 games, he hit .282 with 28 home runs with 95 RBI. It was the last year in his career that he would fail to reach 100 RBI and the second to last time he didn’t reach 30 HR.
Belle’s alcoholism may have been solved by rehab but not his anger management. He was suspended for six games in ’91 for throwing a ball at a fan who yelled out, “Hey Joey, keg party at my house after the game!”
In 1992, Belle improved to 34 HR with 112 RBI but his batting average dropped to .260. He walked 52 times against 128 strikeouts, a career-high.
Albert Belle’s Cleveland Peak (1993-1996)
Albert Belle had a breakout season in 1993. He set career highs on his entire slash line (.290 BA/.370 OBP/.552 SLG) while hitting 38 taters and leading the A.L. with 129 RBI. For this, he made his first of 5 consecutive All-Star teams and finished 7th in the MVP voting.
Belle kept his streak of 100 RBI seasons intact in 1994, driving in 101 in just 106 games during the strike-shortened season. Belle managed these 101 RBI despite missing 7 of the Tribe’s last 11 games due to a suspension for a corked bat.
He hit .357 for the season, with a .438 OBP, .a .714 SLG, which translated to a 194 OPS+ (94% above the league average). Remarkably, Belle didn’t lead the league in any of those slash line categories and finished 3rd in the MVP voting behind Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey Jr.
In 1995, Belle became the first player ever to club at least 50 home runs and 50 doubles, a feat that remains his alone to this day. He hit 50 taters on the nose with 52 two-baggers. He led the A.L. in both categories, while also leading with 126 RBI, 121 Runs, and a .690 slugging percentage. Belle barely lost the MVP vote (by 8 votes) to the Boston Red Sox’ Mo Vaughn in one of the more egregious MVP votes in history.
Rk | Name | Vote Pts | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mo Vaughn | 308 | 39 | 126 | .300 | .388 | .575 | 144 | 4.3 |
2 | Albert Belle | 300 | 50 | 126 | .317 | .401 | .690 | 177 | 7.0 |
3 | Edgar Martinez | 244 | 29 | 113 | .356 | .479 | .628 | 185 | 7.0 |
1995 Post-Season
The 1995 Cleveland Indians were a team of stars past and present. Albert Belle’s teammates included Hall of Famers Jim Thome, Eddie Murray, and Dave Winfield. Two others (Manny Ramirez and Omar Vizquel) are currently on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Pitcher Orel Hershiser has twice been an Eras Committee candidate. Many analysts believe that center fielder Kenny Lofton will be a strong Eras Committee candidate in the future.
The Indians won 100 games against 44 losses in the strike-shortened season. In the first-ever Division Series, the Tribe swept the Boston Red Sox in three games. Belle had a major impact in his first postseason game. In the bottom of the 6th inning, trailing 2-0 to Roger Clemens, Belle hit a two-run double to tie the score at 2.
Later in the game, after the Sox had taken a 4-3 lead in the top of the 11th inning, Belle led off the bottom of the frame with a solo tater off Rick Aguilera. The Indians would up winning in 13 innings on a walk-off home run by veteran catcher Tony Pena and would sweep the BoSox in 3 games.
After advancing to the World Series in a 6-game series win over the Seattle Mariners, the Tribe was matched up against the Atlanta Braves in the World Series. The Braves were also a star-studded team, featuring Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Chipper Jones, along with Fred McGriff (who is on the Contemporary Baseball Players ballot right now with Belle). Belle hit home runs off Steve Avery in Game 4 and off Maddux in Game 5.
The Braves won the Fall Classic in 6 games despite a 1.047 OPS by the Tribe’s slugging left fielder.
Final Year in Cleveland (1996)
Albert Belle’s final year in Cleveland was in 1996 and he had another superb season. Belle slashed .311/.410/.623 (158 OPS+) with 48 homers and a league-high 148 RBI. Belle finished third in this particular MVP vote to Juan Gonzalez and Alex Rodriguez.
As usual, Belle was unable to get through the season without controversy. He was disciplined three times by the league office, notably when he was suspended five games for slamming the Milwaukee Brewers’ Fernando Vina with a forearm shiver to the chin. The suspension was the fifth in Belle’s career, the others being for charging the mound (twice), for throwing a ball at a fan in the stands, and, of course, for the corked bat.
Despite Belle’s 2 home runs, 6 RBI, and .933 OPS, the Indians fell to the Baltimore Orioles in 4 games in the ALDS.
All told, from 1993-96, Belle posted a slash line of .315/.402/.638, which translated to a 166 OPS+ and an average of 5.8 WAR per season. Belle’s 172 HR and 504 RBI were the most in MLB for those 4 years.
Belle’s OPS+ in those four years was 4th best, behind only Barry Bonds, Thomas, and Jeff Bagwell. Despite poor defensive metrics, Belle’s overall 23.1 WAR was sixth-best behind the aforementioned trio plus Griffey and Lofton.
Chicago White Sox (1997-98)
Albert Belle signed a 5-year, $55 million contract after the 1996 season, joining the Chicago White Sox after having spent his entire career in Cleveland. Besides being signed to a contract that was at the time the richest in baseball history, Belle had the chance to play alongside Thomas, a rival but friend.
Even though the Big Hurt was a two-time MVP, he said at the time that Belle had “set himself apart from the rest of the players the past couple of years. He should be the highest-paid player in the game.” Belle’s agent Arn Tellem theorized that Thomas and Belle could do for Chicago baseball what Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen had done for the Bulls.
By his lofty standards, Belle slumped in his first year in Chicago (.274 BA, 30 HR, 116 RBI, 116 OPS+) but rebounded to post a monster campaign in 1998. Belle hit .328 with 49 HR, 152 RBI, and a league-leading 172 OPS+ in ’98. Despite those monster numbers, Belle finished just 8th in the MVP voting in the super-charged offensive era of the late ’90s.
Baltimore Orioles (1999-2000)
Due to a clause that guaranteed him to be one of the top 3 salaried players in MLB, Albert Belle opted out of his contract and became a free agent again after his huge ’98 campaign. He became the highest-paid player in the game again, signing a 5-year, $65 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles.
Belle’s opt-out decision would be a stroke of luck for the White Sox organization because his hip only allowed him to play for two seasons in Baltimore. Belle had a good year in 1999 (37 HR, 117 RBI, 143 OPS+) but regressed significantly in 2000 (23 HR, 103 RBI, 109 OPS+, 0.6 WAR). Belle’s arthritic hip would end his career at the age of 34 after the 2000 campaign.
Albert Belle and the Media
Albert Belle, throughout his career, was notorious for being hostile to members of the media. As reported in detail by Sports Illustrated, during the 1995 World Series, before Game 3, he screamed at multiple reporters who were in the dugout: “All you media a——-, get the f— out of here now.” NBC’s Hannah Storm, who was preparing for an interview, didn’t leave. “I’m talking to you, you a——!” Belle screamed at Storm. “Get the f— out!” Belle was later fined $50,000 for this tirade.
In his book Cooperstown Confidential, Zev Chafets quoted a longtime columnist from the New York Daily News about his feelings upon learning that Belle would have to retire early.
He was a surly jerk before he got hurt and now’s a hurt surly jerk… He was no credit to the game. Belle’s boorish behavior should be remembered by every member of the Baseball Writers’ Association when it comes time to consider him for the Hall of Fame.”
— Bill Madden, New York Daily News (2001)
I was a member of the media throughout Albert Belle’s career and am one of the fortunate few who had a pleasant experience with him. I was producing the Up Close show in May 1997, during Belle’s first season with the White Sox. Our dogged talent producer (Todd Fritz, now Executive Producer of The Dan Patrick Show) arranged to have Belle appear on the show. This was somewhat of a coup, getting a 30-minute interview with one of the most media-shy players in the game.
As host Chris Myers conducted the interview with Belle, those of us in the control room quickly understood why he didn’t like doing interviews. Belle could not have been nicer before, during, or after the show, but he was clearly nervous on camera. Later we counted him saying “you know” several hundred times during the show. Literally, several hundred times, you know.
Shut Out of Cooperstown
Albert Belle became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2006 and received just 7.7% of the vote. The next year, his vote percentage sagged to 3.5%, knocking him off all future BBWAA ballots. One can assume that Bill Madden, who later would make the Hall of Fame himself as the Spink Award winner, was not one of the few who cast his ballot for the surly left fielder.
It is ironic, however, that Madden was on the 11-person Historical Overview Committee that selected Belle as one of the 10 candidates for the Today’s Game ballot in December 2018. Perhaps time softened Madden’s views about him. Or perhaps it was the other members of the committee that pushed for Belle’s inclusion on that ballot. (Madden was not a member of the 11-person overview committee that selected the eight players on the current ballot).
The Hall of Fame Case for and against Albert Belle
Albert Belle’s Hall of Fame case is one for peak value, since his career ended too early to pile up the counting stats normally associated with Hall of Fame sluggers.
Let’s start with a few juicy numbers. Albert Belle is one of 11 players in MLB history to post 9 consecutive seasons with 100 RBI or more. The others are Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, Albert Pujols, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Miguel Cabrera.
Belle also had 8 consecutive seasons with at least 30 HR and 100 RBI. Only 9 other players have done that: Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Palmeiro, Ramirez, Sosa, Pujols, A-Rod, and Mark Teixeira.
Those lists are filled with existing Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famers, and abusers of Performance Enhancing Drugs, the exceptions being Teixeira and Belle. The lists are also dominated by players from the 1990s and 2000s, which admittedly reduces their significance a bit.
Belle’s career slugging percentage of .564 is the 13th-best all-time for players with at least 5,000 PA. He’s behind 8 Hall of Famers, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Ramirez, and the still-active Mike Trout. .564 is a great number but, again, he did play in a super-charged offensive era.
Belle’s career park-and-era-adjusted OPS+ of 144 is tied for the 43rd best on the all-time list (again, with 5,000 PA). He’s behind 32 Hall of Famers plus Bonds, McGwire, Ramirez, 19th-century star Pete Browning, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Dick Allen, Albert Pujols, and the still-active Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Joey Votto.
If you’re not familiar with OPS+, it’s going to be really important for the balance of this piece. OPS+ takes on-base% + slugging% and normalizes it based on the ease of difficulty of hitting in different ballparks and different eras. Therefore, an OPS of 1.000 is not the same in the 1990s as it was in the pitching-dominated 1960s. OPS+ puts all of this on a scale where 100 is average. Thus, if a player has a 144 OPS+, that means they were 44% above average, which is really good.
Albert’s Peaks:
Albert Belle’s best years were from 1993 to 1999. Here is how Belle ranked among all the great sluggers of the 1990s in various statistical categories:
RC = Runs Created
RBat = the batting component off WAR (runs above average, not adjusted for positions)
Stat | Belle | Rank | Behind... |
---|---|---|---|
HR | 288 | 4th | Griffey, McGwire, Sosa |
RBI | 889 | 1st | |
2B | 290 | 1st | |
Hits | 1234 | 2nd | Biggio |
Runs | 739 | 7th | Biggio, Bonds, Knoblauch, Bagwell, Griffey, Lofton |
SLG | .602 | 5th | McGwire, Walker, Bonds, Griffey |
OPS+ | 156 | 7th | McGwire, Bonds, Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, E. Martinez |
RC | 939 | T-3rd | Bonds, Thomas (tied w/ Bagwell) |
RBat | 313.3 | 5th | Bonds, Bagwell, Thomas, McGwire |
WAR | 35.1 | 12th | Bonds, Griffey, Bagwell, Biggio, Piazza, Lofton, Thomas, Knoblauch, Walker, Palmeiro, Larkin |
If you strip out the PED users (Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro), Belle is behind only Hall of Famers in virtually every power category. The weakness is that he is just 12th in WAR, thanks to poor defensive metrics and his propensity to hit into double plays.
If you take a wider view (10 years, from 1991-2000), Belle was 10th in OPS+ if you use a minimum of 4,000 PA. He was 4th in home runs (behind Griffey, McGwire, and Bonds) and first in RBI (with 1,199, an average of 120 per season during his 10 years as a regular player).
Given the plethora of big bats in baseball in the 1990s, being #1 in RBI is a nice feather in Belle’s cap.
However, a disclaimer is needed. Joe Carter, Belle’s teammate in 1989, led the majors in RBI for five different 10-year periods. Carter’s ability as an RBI man was a chief tenet in his Cooperstown candidacy (he was on the Today’s Game ballot four years ago with Belle) but his overall case is otherwise too weak. So, being the top RBI bat for a decade is a Cooperstown credential for Belle but it must be balanced with other factors.
How good was Belle’s peak OPS+ of 156?
Albert Belle’s OPS+ at his best was 156 (from 1993-99). That’s 56% better than the league average and better than all but 6 elite batsmen during that period. Three of those six are in the Hall of Fame already (Thomas, Bagwell, Piazza, Martinez), and two would be if not for PEDs (Bonds, McGwire).
The question here is whether a 7-year run like that is an example of peak performance that deserves to ultimately lead to a Cooperstown plaque. I’m going to show some examples below of other players who posted an OPS+ of 150 or higher for seven years in a row. For simplicity and to not go down the PED rabbit hole today, not included here are PED-linked players who achieved this (Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Ramirez, Sheffield, Giambi).
Examples of Players with 7 + years with an OPS+ of 155 or higher (not in the Hall of Fame)
Gavvy Cravath (Phillies) had a 158 OPS+ from 1913-1919 (7 years).
Charlie Keller (Yankees) had a 157 OPS+ from 1939-1947 (8 years interrupted by one year of military service).
Dick Allen (Phillies/Cardinals/Dodgers/White Sox) had a 165 OPS+ from 1964-1974 (11 full years, the length of Belle’s entire career). Allen’s career OPS+ is 156 for his entire 15-year career, matching the number from Belle’s best 7 seasons. (Allen has fallen one vote shy of the Hall of Fame twice in the last eight years).
Fred McGriff (Blue Jays/Padres/Braves) had a 155 OPS+ from 1988-1994 (7 years). He’s on the Contemporary Baseball Players ballot right now with Belle and is arguably one of the players most negatively impacted by the PED era.
Among the players who are still active or recently retired, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, and Aaron Judge have also accomplished this for at least one seven-year period in the 21st century.
Comparing the Careers of Belle with Allen, Keller, Cravath
Obviously, there is more to the careers of the Belle and names above than just a 7-year OPS+ stretch. So, let’s look at the full resumes of some of those players compared to Belle. Before comparing Belle to his contemporary player (McGriff), let’s first compare Belle to Allen, Keller, and Cravath.
Career | OPS+ | PA | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | Rbat | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dick Allen | 156 | 7315 | 351 | 1119 | .292 | .378 | .534 | 435.2 | 58.7 |
Charlie Keller | 152 | 4604 | 189 | 760 | .286 | .410 | .518 | 285.5 | 43.8 |
Gavvy Cravath | 151 | 4642 | 119 | 719 | .287 | .380 | .478 | 240.1 | 33.0 |
Albert Belle | 144 | 6676 | 381 | 1239 | .295 | .369 | .564 | 343.1 | 40.1 |
Cravath didn’t play long enough and Keller probably didn’t either. I have to admit, though, I’ve always thought there was a case for the Yankee known as King Kong because of those phenomenal rate stats and his key role in the 1939 and 1941 Yankees’ World Championships.
Dick Allen and Albert Belle
To me, Dick Allen is the name that resonates the most with me when thinking about Belle. Besides having similar career statistics (Allen is 4th on Belle’s Similarity Scores list on his Baseball Reference page), each player was dogged by off-field controversy during their careers. They were both right-handed sluggers and among the most feared during their time on the diamond. They both finished short of the normal power-hitter benchmarks and thus are not in the Hall of Fame.
During Dick Allen’s peak (which lasted 11 years), he led all of MLB with a 165 OPS+. He was better than Willie McCovey, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Willie Stargell, Reggie Jackson, Roberto Clemente, Harmon Killebrew, and Willie Mays.
When I noted that Belle’s 156 OPS+ from 1993-99 was “only” 7th best, I noted that he was behind 6 Hall of Fame caliber players. Well, sports fans, I would say that the list of players Allen surpassed is pretty darned impressive.
Anyway, Allen was one vote shy of a Cooperstown plaque on the Eras Committee ballots for both 2015 and 2022. Belle hasn’t gotten close in either of his first two appearances on the Eras Committee ballot. The two won’t likely ever be on the same ballot together but Dick Allen should definitely be higher on the Hall of Fame pecking order. Much higher.
The Offensive Players on the Today’s Game Ballot
Let’s suppose that you’re one of the 16 committee members deciding to confer one vote to either Belle, McGriff, Don Mattingly, or Dale Murphy. I’m going to leave Barry Bonds and Rafael Palmeiro out of this. Both players have vastly superior numbers than any of the others; they’ll be judged based on their links to PEDs, not their statistics on the field.
Anyway, here are the career statistics of the four non-PED-linked offensive candidates on the ballot.
Career | OPS+ | PA | HR | RBI | H | BA | OBP | SLG | Rbat | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 144 | 6676 | 381 | 1239 | 1726 | .295 | .370 | .564 | 343 | 40.1 |
McGriff | 134 | 10174 | 493 | 1550 | 2490 | .284 | .377 | .509 | 399 | 52.6 |
Mattingly | 127 | 7722 | 222 | 1099 | 2153 | .307 | .358 | .471 | 227 | 42.4 |
Murphy | 121 | 9041 | 398 | 1266 | 2111 | .265 | .346 | .469 | 228 | 46.5 |
It’s really hard for me to see how anyone wouldn’t choose McGriff above the other three candidates here. Although Belle has a higher OPS+, that’s almost entirely due to the fact that his career ended after 12 seasons. After his first 12 seasons, McGriff had a 141 OPS+, 339 HR, 1007 RBI, and a 39.9 WAR. Those numbers aren’t as good as Belle’s, but the Crime Dog obviously deserves credit for the last 19 seasons. McGriff’s Hall of Fame case (which is a strong one, in my opinion) is based on his career performance, not his best seven years. Still, if you compare McGriff’s best seven years to Belle’s, he’s pretty darned close.
Player | Peak | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Runs | BA | OBP | SLG | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 1993-99 | 156 | 288 | 889 | 739 | .308 | .391 | .602 | 35.1 |
McGriff | 1988-94 | 155 | 242 | 667 | 644 | .288 | .390 | .545 | 35.3 |
Belle has the edge in most of the traditional statistical categories but McGriff is close in the advanced categories (OPS+, WAR), which are designed to account for the advantage Belle has for having done most of his damage during the more prolific offensive era of the late 1990s.
And, of course, the rest of McGriff’s career blows Belle away.
Player | Seasons | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Runs | BA | OBP | SLG | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 1989-92, '00 | 116 | 93 | 350 | 235 | .267 | .320 | .480 | 5.0 |
McGriff | 1986-87, '95-'04 | 120 | 251 | 883 | 705 | .281 | .370 | .483 | 15.9 |
Comparing Albert Belle to Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly
Let’s imagine, for a moment, that the Contemporary Baseball Players Committee decides to unilaterally reject the candidacies of Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro due to their links to PEDs. That would leave five players left; each committee member could choose up to three of those five. If this were to happen, McGriff would be a slam dunk. Historically, these committees tend to value longevity (as evidenced by the election of Harold Baines and Lee Smith four years ago).
I don’t know how the committee members will feel about Schilling and his controversial Twitter feed but I suspect they won’t hold that against him the way many members of the BBWAA did. So, let’s say, hypothetically, that there’s a consensus to elect both McGriff and Schilling. That still leaves one vote open for which the voters could choose either Belle, Mattingly, or Murphy.
The three players are all similar in the sense that the best argument in favor of the Hall of Fame is their peak performance years. Mattingly’s peak really only lasted six years (1984-88) while Murphy’s lasted eight years (1981-88). So, at the risk of over-saturating you, the reader, let’s look at how the three men stack up if you take their best six consecutive seasons, best seven, and best eight.
Player | Peak | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Runs | BA | OBP | SLG | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 1993-98 | 158 | 251 | 772 | 631 | .310 | .389 | .614 | 31.7 |
Mattingly | 1984-89 | 147 | 160 | 684 | 581 | .327 | .372 | .530 | 33.0 |
Murphy | 1982-87 | 145 | 218 | 629 | 660 | .289 | .383 | .531 | 34.1 |
By choosing a six-year peak period, I’m essentially “rigging” the graphic in favor of Mattingly. He still comes up short of Belle and Murphy across the board, with the exception of his .327 batting average. By WAR, it’s a pretty close call between Belle and Murphy.
Let’s look next at the three players’ best seven years.
Player | Peak | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Runs | BA | OBP | SLG | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 1993-99 | 156 | 288 | 889 | 739 | .308 | .391 | .602 | 35.1 |
Mattingly | 1983-89 | 144 | 164 | 716 | 615 | .324 | .369 | .522 | 33.5 |
Murphy | 1981-87 | 145 | 218 | 629 | 660 | .289 | .383 | .531 | 34.1 |
This is where Belle looks better than the others. Besides the massive edge in counting statistics and OPS+, Belle still has the highest WAR, despite his poor fielding metrics.
Next, let’s look at how these players’ best eight consecutive years look:
Player | Peak | OPS+ | HR | RBI | Runs | BA | OBP | SLG | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 1992-99 | 152 | 322 | 1001 | 820 | .302 | .382 | .587 | 37.1 |
Mattingly | 1983-90 | 139 | 169 | 758 | 655 | .318 | .364 | .505 | 33.2 |
Murphy | 1980-87 | 140 | 264 | 768 | 801 | .285 | .374 | .517 | 42.4 |
By adding the 1980 campaign for Murphy (33 HR, 89 RBI, 135 OPS+, 6.6 WAR), he clearly separates himself from the others. The eighth year hurts Mattingly because he had a really bad season in 1990 (.256 BA, 5 HR, 42 RBI, 81 OPS+, -0.3 WAR).
Finally, let’s look at the career record of those three players:
Career | OPS+ | PA | HR | RBI | H | BA | OBP | SLG | Rbat | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belle | 144 | 6676 | 381 | 1239 | 1726 | .295 | .370 | .564 | 343 | 40.1 |
Mattingly | 127 | 7722 | 222 | 1099 | 2153 | .307 | .358 | .471 | 227 | 42.4 |
Murphy | 121 | 9041 | 398 | 1266 | 2111 | .265 | .346 | .469 | 228 | 46.5 |
As it was on the peak performance graphics, Belle has a huge edge in his slugging prowess and also has the highest on-base percentage. Mattingly was a .307 career hitter, and batting average is something that usually still matters to members of these committees, even if it’s a statistic that’s less respected in the sabermetric community. Murphy has the advantage of having had the longest career; additionally, being a two-time MVP (Mattingly won the award once).
It’s pretty clear to me that Murphy and Belle have significantly stronger cases than Mattingly. Additionally, based on his two MVPs and his longevity, Murphy has the edge over Belle. That doesn’t even include the fact that Murphy (and Mattingly) both were “model citizens,” while Belle had issues with suspensions and his run-ins with the media. Will a committee of former players, managers, and baseball executives care about the media issues? I wouldn’t think so, but Belle has had no luck on his previous two turns on the Eras Committee ballots.
Frankly, I think that Belle’s presence on the Contemporary Baseball Players Hall of Fame ballot for 2023 is mostly to serve as a “sacrificial lamb.” What do I mean by that? The math for anyone to make the Hall through this ballot is difficult. The 16 committee members can only vote for three out of eight players but, to get into the Hall, you have to be named on 12 out of 16 ballots. So, if all of the candidates are strong, the result becomes a split vote where everyone gets between 5 and 9 votes but nobody gets 12.
Therefore, it’s helpful to have a couple of players on these ballots that are easy to dismiss. As an example, Rafael Palmeiro is easy to dismiss; it’s hard to imagine that anyone on the committee will choose to only vote for PED-linked players (with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens being the others). I could be wrong about this, but it seems to me that Belle will be easier to dismiss than the popular Murphy or Mattingly, although I personally think that Mattingly has the weakest case of the three.
Still, it’s possible that Belle will have an advocate or two on the committee depending on which Hall of Famers are on it. Both Frank Thomas and Jim Thome are former teammates and, as current analysts for Fox Sports and MLB Network, would be theoretically on the top of the list of people for the Hall of Fame to put on the committee.
For more on Dale Murphy’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.
For more on Don Mattingly’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.
Conclusion
I’ve already made my prediction that Albert Belle will not make the Hall of Fame next Sunday via the Eras Committee ballot. But let me finish by answering the other question, should he be in the Hall of Fame? I have for a long time and remain on the fence about Belle and the Hall of Fame.
If he had been white, produced at the same level that he actually did, and played in the first half of the 20th century, he probably would have had a plaque with his name on it in Cooperstown. The only three players who made their MLB debuts between 1900 and 1950 who have an OPS+ of 144 or greater (minimum 4,000 PA) and are not in the Hall of Fame are Charlie Keller, Gavvy Cravath, and Shoeless Joe Jackson. The latter, of course, was banned for life for his involvement in the 1919 Black Sox scandal. Keller and Cravath had fewer than 5,000 PA. The only player in the Hall of Fame with less than 5,000 PA is catcher Roy Campanella.
Among players that debuted between 1951 and 2000 (with at least 5,000 PA), there are only 6 players with a career OPS+ of 144 or greater who are absent from the Hall. Those five are Bonds, McGwire, Allen, Manny Ramirez, Lance Berkman, and Belle.
Making a list of players who had at least 6,000 PA (Belle had 6,676) and an OPS+ of at least 135, a lot more names of players outside the Hall make the list. These are just a handful: Frank Howard (142), Norm Cash (139), Carlos Delgado (138), Darryl Strawberry (138), Will Clark (137), Jack Clark (137), Reggie Smith (137), and Brian Giles (137). For whatever it’s worth, all of those players (except for Howard) had a higher career WAR than Belle did.
Albert Belle’s career 144 OPS+ is impressive. It’s a big number, one that deserves respect. However, his career was too short and he didn’t add much value beyond his bat. I think there are many other players from the last four decades who have Cooperstown cases that are better.
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Albert Belle was the most feared (and highest paid) batter in the MLB during those peak 7 seasons. Only player ever to hit 50 HR and 50 2B’s in the same season. He nearly did it again with CWS in 1998 (48 2B’s, 49 HR’s). Belle is an obvious HOFer.
I think Chris has convincingly pointed out Albert Belle is NOT an obvious HOFer.
Albert should definitely be in the HALL!!!
The only one to hit 50 Homers and 50 Doubles in a season. He’s top ten in multiple categories with current Hall of Famers. Do the right thing!!!