Perennially Underrated, the Hall of Fame Case for Dwight Evans

Today is the 71st birthday of longtime Boston Red Sox right fielder Dwight Evans. The 8-time Gold Glover, often called “Dewey,” played in more games in a Red Sox uniform than any player in team history except for Carl Yastrzemski. Next week, Evans may once again be a candidate to be enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. On Monday, the Hall of Fame will reveal the names of eight players who played from 1980 and beyond who will be on the “Contemporary Baseball” Eras Committee ballot. Those eight players will be considered by a 16-person committee that will feature Hall of Famers, baseball executives, and veteran media members.

Three years ago, Evans appeared on the Hall’s “second chance” ballot for the first time. In what was then known as the “Modern Baseball” ballot for players whose primary contribution was from 1970-87, Evans received 8 out of 16 votes from that committee (50%), the third highest total on the ballot, trailing catcher Ted Simmons and former union chief Marvin Miller, who were enshrined in Cooperstown by getting at least 12 votes (75%) on that ballot.

The Hall changed its Eras Committee criteria this summer, implementing a new rotation of committees that may make it more difficult for overlooked players like Evans to break through the logjam of eligible players. If the Hall had kept its previous committee schedule, Evans would have arguably been the leading candidate for Cooperstown on a ballot that would have been revealed in November 2023. However, the Hall decided to lump all players from 1980 and beyond onto one ballot starting this week. So, instead of competing only with the other leading vote-getters from three years ago (Lou Whitaker, Dave Parker, and Steve Garvey), Evans will have to compete with newly eligible players from the 1990s and 2000s, which include Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Fred McGriff. Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe has reported that Parker and Garvey will likely be considered on a pre-1980s “Classic Baseball” ballot in December 2024. (Parker played until 1991, Garvey until 1987, but their best years were in the 70s).

Anyway, the changes to the ballot process mean that this upcoming ballot will have the politics of PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs) competing with on-the-field deeds from players such as Evans, Whitaker, and McGriff. Besides those PED politics (which impact Bonds, Clemens, and possibly Sammy Sosa, who is also eligible for this ballot), there are the politics of Curt Schilling’s Twitter feed. The ace right-handed pitcher would likely already be in the Hall of Fame were it not for some of his controversial political views. Other possible candidates for the Contemporary Baseball ballot include previous “Modern Baseball” candidates Dale Murphy, and Don Mattingly along with Mark McGwire, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser, and first-time eligibles Rafael Palmeiro and Kenny Lofton. (Only players whose final season was in 2007 or earlier are eligible).

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James once called Evans one of the most underrated players in baseball history. This piece will tackle that subject, offering the case for why Evans deserves a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown.

Cooperstown Cred: Dwight Evans (RF)

• Boston Red Sox (1972-90), Baltimore Orioles (1991)
• Career: .272 BA, .370 OBP, .470 SLG, 385 HR, 1,384 RBI, 2,446 Hits
• Career: 127 OPS+, 67.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 8-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger
• Top 11 in A.L. MVP voting 5 times
• 4,247 career putouts in right field (3rd most in baseball history)
• Led A.L. in assists for right fielders 3 times (1975, ’76, ’79)

(cover photo: Pinterest)

Dwight Evans: Early Years

Dwight Michael Evans was born on November 3, 1951, in Santa Monica, California. His family moved to Hawaii when he was an infant, returning to Southern California when he was 9. After winning his league’s MVP honors as a senior at Chatsworth High School, Evans was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in the fifth round of the 1967 player draft. Evans was just 17 years old when he began his minor league playing career.

Evans climbed up the Red Sox’ organizational ladder, peaking in 1972 when he was the MVP of the International League, playing in Louisville for manager Darrell Johnson. (This was the final year that the Red Sox’ AAA affiliated was in Kentucky; Pawtucket (in Rhode Island) became Sox’ AAA team in 1973). Evans hit .300 with a .409 on-base percentage, 17 home runs, and 95 RBI. His performance earned him a promotion to the big club in Boston in September.

After two appearances off the bench, Evans took over the starting left field job with 16 games left in the regular season with the Sox in a pennant race with the Detroit Tigers. In being handed the starting LF job at the age of 20 by manager Eddie Kasko, Evans replaced slumping rookie Ben Ogilvie (Carl Yastrzemski had been moved to first base in August to replace struggling first baseman Danny Cater). In 18 games, the right-handed hitting Evans hit .263 with a .344 OBP, 1 home run, and 6 RBI. The Sox finished the season one-half game behind the Tigers in the A.L. East.

In 1973, Evans played in 119 games (starting 81) mostly in right field, which would be his position for the vast majority of his 20-year Major League Baseball career. He struggled offensively in what was officially his rookie year (.223 BA, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 93 OPS+ in 328 PA) before becoming a respectable offensive player in 1974 (.281 BA, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 110 OPS+). In the meantime, Evans became a top-flight defensive performer in right field in ’74. He led all right fielders in fielding percentage and was second in the league in putouts while modern metrics (23 “total zone runs” in RF) credit him as being by far the best defensive RF in the American League.

Incidentally, Evans’ manager at AAA in 1972 (Johnson) became the Red Sox’ skipper in ’74.

1975: World Series Season

Dwight Evans, in 1975, had another brilliant defensive season. Besides leading all A.L. right fielders again with 24 “total zone runs” (a statistic that didn’t exist at the time), he also tied for the league lead for all RF with 15 assists, turned the most double plays, and recorded the third most putouts. This was the first of two consecutive seasons in which Evans showed off his howitzer of an arm in right with 15 assists per campaign.

Offensively, Dewey hit .274 with 13 HR, 56 RBI, and, thanks to improved plate discipline, a .353 OBP and a solid 120 OPS+.

With two hot-hitting rookies manning center field (A.L. Rookie of the Year and MVP Fred Lynn) and left field (Jim Rice, the ROY runner-up), the Red Sox had one of the best outfields in the game. Boston won 95 games, good enough for the team’s first-ever A.L. East title. In the American League Championship Series against the three-time defending World Champion Oakland Athletics, the Sox won three straight games for a clean sweep. Evans, in his first taste at postseason baseball, went just 1 for 10 (.100) with a .182 OBP.

After going just 1 for 6 in the first two games of the World Series against the Cincinnati Reds, Evans’ bat woke up in Game 3. In the top of the 9th inning, with the Red Sox trailing 5-3, Evans hit a two-run home run off Rawly Eastwick to tie the score. The Reds would win in the bottom of the 10th on an RBI single by Joe Morgan.

In Game 4, a virtual must-win with the Sox trailing 2 Games to 1, Evans hit a game-tying two-run triple in the top of the 4th inning, a part of a 5-run inning that gave Boston a 5-2 lead, one that the team would not relinquish (the final score was 5-4).

Evans went 1 for 3 in Game 5 (a 6-2 loss) and then played a key role in the famous 12-inning Game 6 victory. With the score tied at 6 in the top of the 11th inning, Red Sox reliever Dick Drago hit the leadoff batter, Pete Rose, with a pitch. The next batter (Ken Griffey) proceeded to bunt into a force-out. Next, Morgan, the eventual N.L. MVP, hit a searing line drive to right field. It looked like a certain extra-base hit that might have scored Griffey from first. However, Evans snared the liner for a spectacular catch, then spun to throw to first. Evans’ throw, perhaps slightly rushed, was offline but first baseman Carl Yastrzemski tracked it down and tossed it to shortstop Rick Burleson (covering first), doubling off Griffey to end the inning.

“I think all great plays are always anticipated… I was actually, before that pitch thinking if the ball is hit in the gap…I’ve got to go into the stands. Of course, I didn’t end up doing that, but that’s what went through my mind, and then when the ball was hit, I was actually prepared for it. It wasn’t the best catch I ever made, but it was the most important catch I ever made.”

— Dwight Evans (as told to Jennifer Latchford and Rod Oreste, Red Sox Legends, reported in his SABR bio)

Famously, Carlton Fisk ended the game in the bottom of the 12th inning with a solo home run over the Green Monster that was barely fair.

In Game 7, Evans drew a bases-loaded walk from Don Gullett to give Boston a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning. The Reds, however, came back to tie the score thanks to a two-run tater by Tony Perez in the 5th and an RBI single by Rose in the 7th. In the bottom of the 8th, Evans drew a full-count walk from reliever Clay Carroll but Burleson grounded into a double play to erase him from the base paths. In the next inning, Morgan delivered an RBI single for Cincinnati, leading to their eventual 4-3 victory and World Championship.

1976-80

After two superb defensive seasons, Dwight Evans was finally recognized with his first Gold Glove in 1976. He led the league in right fielder assists with another 15, recorded the second most putouts, and again led all RF in fielding percentage. Ironically, today’s metrics showed Evans as being the second best in right, behind Kansas City’s Al Cowens. Offensively, Evans regressed a bit (.242 BA, .324 OBP, 109 OPS+) in ’76.

Evans bounced back with the bat in 1977 (.287 BA, .363 OBP, and a career-best .526 SLG) but a knee injury limited him to just 73 games. Dewey hit 14 homers in ’77 despite just 265 PA.

The 1978 season featured one of the most famous regular-season division races in baseball history. Boston’s offense was prolific, especially in the first half of the season; six different position players made the All-Star team, including Evans for the first time. Offensively, the Red Sox right fielder hit with more power than ever before, swatting 24 home runs. However, his entire slash line dropped and he struck out 119 times, 27 more than his previous career high.

On July 19th, the Red Sox had a 62-28 record. They were 9 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers and a full 14 games in front of the New York Yankees but the team started to suffer injuries and lose games, going 24-28 in their next 52 contests. At the end of that stretch (a humiliating 4-game sweep at Fenway Park by the Yankees), the lead had evaporated. Evans was a part of the injury bug, suffering a beaning on August 28th. Dewey returned to the lineup less than a week later but slumped badly, hitting .161 with just one home run and three RBI in 67 plate appearances.

Given his deep slump, Evans did not start the famous one-game playoff that was won by the Yankees 5-4.

Evans was awarded his second Gold Glove and then won another one in 1979. Highlighting his defensive handiwork were 14 assists in 1978 and another 15 in ’79.  Offensively, Evans remained a solid but unspectacular force. Overall, from 1976-80, Evans posted an OPS+ of 116, a solid number but not one that made anyone think they were watching a future Hall of Famer, especially when he was overshadowed by Yastrzemski, Rice, Fisk, and Lynn on his own team.

1981: Dwight Evans’ Bat Breaks Out

Don Zimmer had replaced Darrell Johnson as Boston’s skipper in 1976 and managed the team until shortly before the end of the 1980 campaign. In the spring of 1981, new manager Ralph Houk noticed that Evans had drawn 64 walks in 1980, giving him a .358 on-base percentage, the second-highest on the team. After years of batting near the bottom of Boston’s deep lineup, Evans spent the entire 1981 campaign hitting in one of the lineup’s top three spots, mostly hitting second behind Jerry Remy.

Although the Sox would lose on Opening Day (at home against Chicago), Evans (in the leadoff spot) set the tone for his campaign by hitting a solo home run in the 5th (that was the 3rd time, incidentally, that Dewey had gone yard in the season opener). Overall, Evans was other-worldly in the first 56 games of the year, slashing .341/.453/.578 with 13 HR, 39 RBI, and 44 Runs.

Unfortunately for Evans and all of the players and fans, the first half of the season ended after the players went on strike, one that would wipe out a third of the season. At the end of the “first half,” Evans led all A.L. qualifiers in all three slash line categories (BA, OBP, and SLG).

The season resumed on August 9th with the All-Star Game in Cleveland. Evans wasn’t voted to the team by the fans but was a manager’s selection for his second Mid-Summer Classic.

Unfortunately, the magic did not return to Evans’ bat in the second half of the season. He slumped with a .249/.376/.463 slash line, hitting an additional 9 HR while driving in 32. Still, thanks to 42 walks (tied for the most in the A.L.), Evans’ 40 runs scored were third-best in the league for the second half.

“I was leading the league in hitting in 1981 when we went on strike, .342, something like that… Close to leading the league in home runs, most RBIs when we went on strike. I had never experienced a year like that… We were off for 50-some days, and I came back, I couldn’t find it.”

— Dwight Evans (to Graham Womack and The Sporting News, March 22, 2016)

Overall, Evans finished with 22 HR, 71 RBI, and 84 Runs in 108 games, while posting a slash line of .296/.415/.522 (163 OPS+). He finished 3rd in the MVP voting behind two future Hall of Famers, reliever Rollie Fingers and lead-off man extraordinaire Rickey Henderson. Evans also won his 4th Gold Glove and first Silver Slugger.

After years of being the 5th or 6th fiddle in the Boston lineup, Evans was “the man.” Fisk and Lynn were gone (to the White Sox and Angels), Yastrzemski was in the twilight of his career at age 42 and Rice would only twice again post Cooperstown-caliber campaigns with the bat.

1982-85

From 1982 to 1985, Dwight Evans had two magnificent offensive campaigns (in ’82 and ’84), an average one (’83), and a solid one (’85).

• 1982: .292 BA/.402 OBP/.534 SLG, 149 OPS+, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 122 Runs
• 1983: .238 BA/.338 OBP/.436 SLG, 106 OPS+, 22 HR, 58 RBI, 74 Runs
• 1984: .295 BA/.388 OBP/.532 SLG, 147 OPS+, 32 HR, 104 RBI, 121 Runs
• 1985: .263 BA/.378 OBP/.454 SLG, 124 OPS+, 29 HR, 78 RBI, 110 Runs

Dewey remained mostly in the 2-hole for these years under Houk and new manager John McNamara in 1985. You’ll notice that Evans’ on-base ability translated into lots of runs scored. Including the strike-shortened ’81 campaign, only Henderson scored more runs between 1981 and ’85 in all of Major League Baseball.

Evans also walked 477 times from ’81-’85, the most in the A.L. and second most (to Mike Schmidt) in all of MLB. Twice Evans walked more than 100 times (112 in ’82 and 114 in ’85).

Evans’ 1982 campaign was good enough for a 7th-place finish in the MVP balloting; in 1984 he finished 11th. Additionally, Evans won Gold Gloves five through eight from ’82-’85 although today’s metrics indicate that he probably earned the last three based on reputation rather than the numbers.

Using the batting component that goes into WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Dwight Evans was the third most productive offensive player from 1981-85, behind only Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Henderson.

1986: Back to the Postseason

The Boston Red Sox, after years of being out of contention in the A.L. East, won 95 games in 1986, giving the team its first A.L. East title since 1975. Although he was still one of the team’s most productive batsmen, Dwight Evans was overshadowed again by more famous teammates. Rice, in his final big offensive campaign, hit .324 with 110 RBI and would finish 3rd in the A.L. MVP vote. Third baseman Wade Boggs hit .357 with a .453 OBP; after 5 MLB campaigns, Boggs was a lifetime .352 hitter.

Overshadowing all of the offensive performers was Roger Clemens, who went 24-4 with a 2.48 ERA and would later capture both the league’s MVP and Cy Young Awards.

Evans had a solid but not spectacular year, slashing .259/.376/.476 with a 131 OPS+, 26 HR, 97 RBI, and 86 Runs. Evans started the season in the lead-off spot and hit the first pitch of the season (from future Hall of Famer Jack Morris) for a solo home run. The tater was Evans’ fifth Opening Day long ball. After the first 34 games of the season, McNamara dropped Evans to the 2-hole for one game and then to the bottom portion of the lineup for the rest of the year.

Evans was hitting just .250 but still had a robust .375 OBP when he was dropped in the order. 2nd baseman Marty Barrett, on the other hand, was hitting .311 in mostly the 7th or 8th spot on the lineup and it was he who McNamara anointed as his new leadoff man. Barrett’s .366 OBP was lower than Evans’ at the time but the Red Sox manager either didn’t value OBP or preferred a runner who was capable of swiping a few bases (Barrett stole 15). Anyway, McNamara’s sub-optimal lineup construction didn’t hurt the Red Sox too badly; they still won those 95 games.

The Red Sox matched up against the California Angels in what would be a classic 7-Game ALCS. Evans only hit .214 with a .657 OPS; his teammates led the Red Sox to victory. Most notable was a late in-season acquisition, center fielder Dave Henderson, who hit a game-tying home run in the top of the 9th of Game 5, when the Angels were one out away from a trip to the Fall Classic.

The 1986 World Series

In the World Series, the Red Sox were heavy underdogs to the 108-win New York Mets. After Boston eked out a 1-0 victory in Game 1 at Shea Stadium, the world of baseball greatly anticipated the pitching matchup of Clemens and New York’s Dwight Gooden, the 21-year-old star who had won the 1985 Cy Young. The Sox stunned the Mets’ faithful by scoring 3 runs off Gooden in the top of the 3rd. In the top of the 5th, the Sox had a 4-2 lead. Rice hit a ground ball single and then, on the first pitch, Dwight Evans hit a two-run blast off his namesake to give Boston a 6-2 lead, one they would not relinquish.

The Mets clawed back with two wins at Fenway Park, setting up a Game 6 opportunity for the Sox and Clemens to close out the World Series. Evans got things going for Boston with a double off Bob Ojeda to left-center to give the Sox a 1-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning. Later in the game, with the score tied at 2, Evans got another RBI on a ground ball to give the Red Sox the lead. Anyway, as we all know now, the Mets wound up winning Game 6 in the bottom of the 10th inning when a grounder from Mookie Wilson went through Bill Buckner’s legs.

In Game 7, it was Evans again who got the party started with a solo homer to left-center off Ron Darling in the top of the 2nd inning. As events unfolded, the Mets had a 6-3 lead after 7 innings. Facing Roger McDowell in the top of the 8th, Buckner and Rice both singled to lead off the inning. Evans then drove a McDowell pitch to right-center for a double that plated both runners, cutting the score to 6-5. That would be Dewey’s last World Series at bat. Jesse Orosco came in for the Mets to get the final six outs in an 8-5 victory.

All told, Evans slashed .308/.400/.615 with 2 HR and 9 RBI in Boston’s bitter defeat.

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1987-1990: Final 4 Seasons in Boston

Dwight Evans was 35 years old at the start of the 1987 season. Although no longer a premium defensive right fielder, Evans remained one of the top offensive players in the game. He made his 3rd and final All-Star Game in ’87 and finished 4th in the MVP voting for reasons that will become apparent when you see the numbers.

• 1987: .305 BA/.417 OBP/.569 SLG, 157 OPS+, 34 HR, 123 RBI, 109 Runs
• 1988: .293 BA/.375 OBP/.487 SLG, 136 OPS+, 21 HR, 111 RBI, 96 Runs
• 1989: .285 BA/.397 OBP/.463 SLG, 136 OPS+, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 82 Runs

Besides finishing 4th in the ’87 MVP vote, Evans also finished 9th in ’88. Interestingly, in ’88 McNamara moved Evans from the 6th spot in the lineup to the cleanup spot even though he was hitting just .238 with a .628 OPS at the time. Rice, the previous cleanup hitter, was struggling even more, with a .289 slugging percentage and .602 OPS.

The lineup switch worked out well for Evans. After 40 games hitting cleanup, he was moved into the 3-hole. For the last 127 games of the season, Evans slashed .303/.385/.516 while driving in 101 runs. Thanks mostly to Evans, Boggs, Clemens, and 2nd-year left fielder Mike Greenwell, the Sox won 89 games, edging the Detroit Tigers by one game to win the A.L. East.

McNamara was gone, having been fired when the team got off to a 43-42 start. Under new manager Joe Morgan (not the Hall of Famer), the Sox won 12 games in a row and 19 out of 20 to surge into contention. The ALCS, against the powerhouse 104-win Oakland Athletics, did not go well. The Sox were swept in 4 games, with Evans hitting just .167 (.583 OBP)

Boston returned to the playoffs in 1990 in what would be Evans’ final campaign in Beantown. Limited by back problems, the 38-year-old’s hitting skills were clearly in decline. He slashed .249/.349/.391 with a 104 OPS+. After 9 straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and 3 straight 100-RBI campaigns, Dewey’s numbers dipped to 13 HR and 63 RBI. No longer a quality defender, Evans was used exclusively as a designated hitter in ’90.

In his final postseason opportunity (another 4-game sweep at the hands of Oakland), Evans went 3 for 13 (.231) with no RBI and a .593 OPS.

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1991: Baltimore Orioles

After playing 2,505 games in a Boston uniform, the second most in Red Sox history behind Yastrzemski, Dwight Evans was released two weeks after the end of the ALCS. At the end of his 19 years in Boston, only Yaz, Rice, and Ted Williams were ahead of Evans on the Red Sox all-time lists for HR, RBI, or Hits. Only Yaz and Williams scored more runs, hit more doubles, or drew more walks for the Red Sox than Evans.

During his tenure in Boston, Evans played with 12 future Hall of Famers: Yaz, Rice, Fisk, Boggs, Tony Perez, Luis Aparicio, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Fergie Jenkins, Dennis Eckersley, Tom Seaver, and Lee Smith.

Six weeks after his release, Evans signed a one-year contract to play for the Baltimore Orioles. With his one year in Baltimore, Evans had the opportunity to play with two more future Cooperstown inductees (Cal Ripken Jr. and rookie Mike Mussina). For the first 37 games of the season, his manager was Frank Robinson, an all-time Hall of Fame great.

Evans played in 101 games for the O’s and acquitted himself nicely. Playing mostly his longtime position of right field, Dewey managed to post a .393 OBP (and 119 OPS+) in his final campaign. He finished his career with 385 HR, 1,384 RBI, 2,446 Hits, and a 127 OPS+.

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No Luck with the BBWAA

Dwight Evans hit the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) Hall of Fame ballot in 1997. In an election that requires 75% of the writers to vote “yes” for induction, Evans received just 5.9%. In his second bite at the BBWAA apple, Evans did better (10.4%) but dropped to 3.6% in 1999; because that was below 5%, Evans would no longer be eligible for the Hall.

Why did this 8-time Gold Glover fare so poorly with the BBWAA? There are a few reasons. First, Evans was a late bloomer with the bat. He didn’t hit at a Hall of Fame level until 1981, when he was 29 years old. He didn’t make an All-Star team until that year. The vast majority of Hall of Famers make a big splash early in their careers.

The second reason is that a great deal of Evans’ value was in his defense and on-base ability, aspects of a player’s game that often get overlooked when it comes time to vote for Hall of Famers. This was especially true in the late 1990s when on-base% was just starting to register as a relevant statistic.

But the main reason is that, at this point in history, the writers were flat-out stingy with their votes. Only two Hall of Famers were elected in the three years prior to ’97 (Steve Carlton in ’94 and Mike Schmidt in ’95). Despite his 318 wins, the writers made Phil Niekro wait five years before he was inducted in ’97; they also made Don Sutton (324 wins) wait five years until he got the nod in ’98.

The 1999 BBWAA Ballot

In 1999, the year Evans dropped under 5%, three first-ballot Hall of Famers were elected: Nolan Ryan, George Brett, and Robin Yount. All three had unassailable Cooperstown Credentials. Ryan was the all-time strikeout king who won 324 games and tossed 7 no-hitters. Both Brett and Yount collected well over 3,000 hits and were former MVPs. At the same time, Carlton Fisk hit the ballot; he received 66% of the vote and would get elected in 2000.

Take a look at the collateral impact on the 1999 ballot of the first-time presence of Ryan, Brett, Yount, and Fisk.

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From this group, Tony Perez (in 2000), Gary Carter (2003), and Rice (2009) would eventually be elected to the Hall of Fame.

There’s another factor, obviously, that hurt Evans’ Hall of Fame candidacy and it’s that his 385 home runs started to look puny compared to the huge home run numbers being put up by players using Performing Enhancing Drugs.

“When I came on the ballot, guys were starting to hit 60 home runs… And then it went to 70. And I got caught up in that awkward stage of the game changing.

— Dwight Evans (to Steve Buckley, The Athletic, Feb. 15, 2019)

Late Bloomer

As mentioned above, Dwight Evans was a late bloomer offensively. He was an above-average hitter from 1972-80 but one of the best in baseball from 1981-89. Take a look at the numbers side by side.

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You can see plainly that Evans was not a Cooperstown quality hitter in the first nine years of his career but that he was in the second nine years. It is very rare for Hall of Famers to produce most of their value in their 30’s (Evans was 29 in 1981).

Think about age in comparison to the Hall of Famers who were inducted in 1999. Ryan was 25 when he struck out 300 batters for the first time. He was 26 when he tossed his first two no-hitters and had two more before he turned 29. Brett made 7 All-Star teams in his 20’s and won an MVP trophy. Yount was an MVP at the age of 27.

Evans is similar to Jeff Kent in terms of reaching his hitting peak later in his career. Kent is the all-time leader in home runs for second basemen but has never gotten any traction with the BBWAA voters.

“The first part of my career was not like I finished the second half… Maybe if I had done it in reverse it might have made a difference. But I did take great pride in getting better as I got older.”

— Dwight Evans (to Steve Buckley, The Athletic, Feb. 15, 2019)

The Hall of Fame Case for Dwight Evans

When thinking about whether Dewey Evans deserves a plaque in Cooperstown, the challenge is that the case isn’t readily apparent with league-leading statistics (bold type on Baseball Reference), MVP votes, or All-Star accolades. Evans had big postseason hits but none that resulted in a Red Sox World Championship. The one area in which Evans did have recognition (the 8 Gold Gloves for his defensive prowess) clearly didn’t resonate with the writers.

To me, there are two planks that make Dwight Evans a Hall of Famer. The first is that he was better than average to excellent at multiple facets of the game. The second is that, although he didn’t come close to the traditional benchmark Hall of Fame numbers (3,000 hits or 500 home runs), he did have a long career and actually compiled extremely impressive numbers in other categories that don’t get traditional Cooperstown recognition.

Let’s start with the simple fact that Evans remained in the lineup long enough that he accumulated 10,569 plate appearances, the 53rd most in baseball history (the 29th most at the time of his retirement after the 1991 season). There are only three other players through 1991 with 10,000 or more PA who are not in the Hall of Fame: Pete Rose, Rusty Staub, and Darrell Evans. Rose is not in the Hall because of his gambling habits. Neither Staub nor the other Evans has a single Gold Glove; Dwight has eight.

Needless to say, we’re not going to put Dwight Evans into Cooperstown because of his plate appearances alone. So, let’s look at what he did with those PA.

.270/.370/.470

Part of Evans’ value as a hitter is that he hit for a respectable average, drew a lot of walks and hit for well-above-average power. Dewey hit .272 with a .370 OBP and .470 SLG. Through the 1991 season (Evans’ last), there were 52 players who logged at least 10,000 plate appearances. It might surprise you to know that only 14 of those 52 managed to achieve a slash line of at least .270 BA/.370 OBP/.470 SLG. All 14 are in the Hall of Fame except for Dwight Evans.

If you drop the criteria to 9,000 PA, you get 99 players who reached that minimum by 1991. Only 22 out of 99 achieved the .270/.370/.470 slash line. It’s 21 Hall of Famers plus Evans. You have to drop all the way to 8,050 career PA (through ’91) to find someone with that slash line who isn’t in the Hall (“Indian” Bob Johnson).

Let’s Lower it to .260/.360/.460

Now, it would be a fair point to note that Evans is right “on the number” with two of the .270/.370/.470 slash line minimums; the study is gerrymandered to his benefit. So, let’s reduce the standard to .260 BA/.360 OBP/.460 SLG.

If you take those 52 players with 10,000 PA through 1991, there are 19 who hit at least .260/.360/.460. Once again, it’s 18 Hall of Famers plus Dwight Evans. If you look at the 99 players with at least 9,000 PA, you get 30 who slashed at a minimum of .260/.360/.460. Guess what? It’s 29 Hall of Famers and our man of the hour.

Including All Years (1871-2022)

In case you’re wondering, there are 26 total players who have at least 10,000 PA and slashed .270/.370/.470 if you include all of baseball history, including the 31 years since Evans’ last game. When you do this, there are in fact eight other players who meet the criteria but are not in the Hall of Fame. Four of those players are linked to PEDs; one is still active (Miguel Cabrera). One has just retired (Albert Pujols). The others are Bobby Abreu (currently on the BBWAA ballot) and Fred McGriff (who will likely be named on the Contemporary Baseball ballot next Monday).

McGriff, in my opinion, will and should be elected to the Hall this December, when the results of the Contemporary Baseball ballot are announced. Abreu presents an interesting case, one not too dissimilar to Evans’ in that he had a wide variety of skills, including 400 stolen bases and a very high OBP.

If you drop the slash line minimum to .260/.360/.460 you also get Luis Gonzalez, who is not a Cooperstown-caliber player. Remember, though, that Gonzalez played during a better offensive era. In spite of that, he still has fewer runs scored and fewer home runs than Evans despite almost exactly the same number of PA.

Times on Base

As we noted earlier, Evans fell far short of traditional Hall of Fame benchmarks such as 3,000 hits or 500 home runs. He did, however, reach base 4,007 times in his 20-year career if you include walks, HBP, and times reached by error. Through the 1991 season, only 28 players in baseball history had reached that milestone. The list includes 25 Hall of Famers, Rose, Staub, and Dwight Evans. In fact, other than Darrell Evans (3,955 TOB), you have to go back to 3,689 times on base (Eddie Yost) to find somebody not in the Hall.

Therefore, if you take the 52 players from 1871-1991 to reach base 3,695 times or more, you get 48 Hall of Famers, Rose, Staub, and the two Evanses.

Incidentally, Evans’ 4,007 times on base is more than the career TOB for 3,000-hit men Lou Brock, Nap Lajoie, Roberto Clemente, and Ichiro Suzuki.

By including Ichiro, I’ve opened the study to include all players in recorded American baseball history. If you do that, you get 54 players who have reached the 4,000 TOB plateau. Besides Evans, there are in fact 12 other players who have reached that milestone but are not in Cooperstown. Besides the aforementioned Rose and Staub, you get…

• 5 PED-linked players (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez)
• Adrian Beltre and Albert Pujols, who are not yet eligible
• Miguel Cabrera, who is still active
• Bobby Abreu and Omar Vizquel

I’ve already discussed Abreu and, by the way, if you feel that Abreu is worthy of the Hall if Evans is worthy, it’s a completely legitimate argument. As for Vizquel, he’s currently on the ballot and received 53% of the vote in 2019 but has plummetted to 24% as of January 2022 because of personal scandals. Vizquel’s case is based on defense (he won 11 Gold Gloves). I recently analyzed his polarizing case. Suffice it to say, it’s not a comparable situation to Dwight Evans in that Vizquel was ultimately not a very good hitter (career OPS+ of 82). He reached base 59 more times than Evans but needed 1,444 more PA to do it.

One of the Top Hitters of the 1980s

When crafting a Hall of Fame case for any borderline candidate (which is a fair designation for anyone not elected by the BBWAA), one aspect to consider is how that player ranked with respect to his peers. So, let’s take a look at how Dwight Evans fares during his best offensive years. Although his peak really began in 1981, we’ll extend the study to include 1980 because it allows us to look at an entire calendar decade.

Rbat = Runs Above Average due to Batting (the batting component of WAR)

RC = Runs Created (from Baseball-Reference, originally developed by Bill James)

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As you can probably deduce, Evans’ high ranks in the sabermetric statistics of Rbat and RC are fueled by the fact that he had both a high OBP and high SLG while reaching base more than any player in baseball except for Rickey Henderson. To out-perform slam dunk Hall of Famers like Henderson, Mike Schmidt and Eddie Murray in Runs Created for an entire decade is a huge feather in Dewey’s cap.

Why is Evans’ WAR so Relatively Low?

I will admit, when I saw that Dwight Evans ranked 16th in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the decade, I was surprised. How does that compute with him being high in so many offensive categories?

For the record, Evans’ 42.2 WAR from 1980-89 is behind Henderson, Boggs, Schmidt, Yount, Alan Trammell, Ozzie Smith, Ripken, Brett, Andre Dawson, Dale Murphy, Murray, Tim Raines, Gary Carter, Lou Whitaker, and Keith Hernandez. How do we explain this?

OK, first of all, WAR has a positional adjustment. The raw “Rbat” does not. So, Trammell, Ozzie, Ripken, Yount, Whitaker, and Carter benefit from being middle infielders or a catcher. That’s part of it. The real reason, however, is hugely ironic. It’s that, in the fielding component of WAR (Rfield), Evans is actually underwater (-14.3 RField) for the decade of the 1980s. That’s right, the 8-time Gold Glover ranks 121st out of the 177 players in fielding among those who logged at least 3,000 PA in the 1980s.

Just going by the metrics, which you can choose to believe or disbelieve, Evans became a below-average defensive right fielder starting in 1983, despite the fact that he was the Gold Glove winner in ’83, ’84, and ’85.

It is an irony of the career of Dwight Evans is that, in the first phase of his career, he was a superb defensive player but merely above average offensively. From 1972-81, Evans is credited with 105.4 runs above average from fielding (Rfield), the fourth most in baseball behind Buddy Bell, Schmidt, and Garry Maddox and just ahead of Graig Nettles.

In the second phase of his career, throughout the decade of the 1980s, Evans was one of the best hitters in baseball but no longer a top player in the field.

Is Evans’ WAR an Asset or Liability?

So, in today’s sabermetric world, considering that he ranked just 16th in WAR from 1980-89, is WAR an asset or a liability when evaluating the Cooperstown credentials of Dwight Evans? The answer is that his overall career WAR of 67.1 is an asset. That number is derived from the accumulation of everything he did both offensively and defensively throughout his career, with defense driving the number in the ’70s and offense driving it in the ’80s.

Using Baseball Reference’s WAR, Evans ranks as the 14th-best right fielder in the history of baseball. He’s behind 13 Hall of Famers. Evans is ahead of 13 Hall of Fame right fielders, including Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero.

Comparison to Dawson, Winfield, and Rice

Finally, I’d like to compare Dwight Evans to three Hall of Fame outfielders who were contemporaries. First, let’s look at the basic numbers of Evans, Dawson, Winfield, and Rice, Dewey’s longtime teammate in Boston.

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You can see plainly here why Winfield was a first-ballot Hall of Famer while Dawson needed 9 ballots and Rice needed 15. If you just compare Evans’ numbers to those of Dawson and Rice, Dewey looks pretty good. The Hawk showed more power and speed but Evans showed vastly more plate discipline. When compared to Rice, frankly, it’s hard to choose.

Now, let’s look at the sabermetrics:

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That’s right sports fans. The formula that is the basis for WAR on Baseball Reference gives a higher score to Evans than to Winfield, Dawson, or Rice. By the way, another leading sabermetric site (FanGraphs) also has Evans above the others.

As you can see from the numbers, fielding metrics are brutal to Winfield. They’re so brutal that, without taking too deep a dive into it, I’m skeptical. As to Dawson, the fielding metrics are almost identical to those of Evans. That makes sense. Like Evans, Dawson’s defense declined as he got older (partially a result of the toll of the Olympic Stadium turf on his knees).

Regarding Rice, his numbers suffer significantly from his propensity to hit into double plays. That’s a real thing. Rice is 8th all-time in GIDP despite being just 155th in career plate appearances.

Conclusion

It’s easy to dismiss Dwight Evans as a Hall of Fame candidate because he didn’t hit magic numbers. However, as we’ve seen, when you look more closely, when you understand the value of drawing a walk and the value of high-quality glove work, the calculus changes.

In the entire history of baseball, there are just 22 men who are credited on Baseball Reference with at least 350 Rbat and 60 Rfield. Evans is one of those 22. The only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Bonds, Pujols and Todd Helton, who is gaining ground on the current BBWAA ballot (52% in 2022).

Let’s make one final list, of the players with 350 HR, 1,300 RBI, 3,500 times on base, and 8 Gold Gloves: the names on the list are Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline, Dawson, and Evans.

Dwight Evans deserves a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

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