Rafael Palmeiro is on the Hall of Fame Ballot Again

Rafael Palmeiro, one of the most tragic figures of baseball’s steroid era, is on a Hall of Fame ballot tomorrow for the first time since 2014. Tomorrow in San Diego a 16-member panel, known as the Contemporary Baseball Players Committee, will consider the candidacies of Palmeiro and seven other players for a spot in the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2023. The other candidates on the ballot are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Albert Belle.

On July 15, 2005, Palmeiro rapped his 3,000 career hit and became just the fourth player in Major League Baseball history to reach the milestones of both 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. At the time, the only other players to ever achieve this feat were Hall of Famers Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray. Although suspicions existed about Palmeiro’s use of Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), mostly because he was named as a user in Jose Canseco‘s book Juiced, there had been no definitive proof to date and Palmeiro seemed destined for the Hall of Fame.

The suspicions about Palmeiro’s PED use resulted in him appearing in front of Congress along with Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and others a few months before his 3,000th hit. Palmeiro infamously wagged his finger at the members of the House Committee on Government Reform, defiantly claiming “I have never used steroids. Period.” Six weeks later, Palmeiro received a call from the Players Association informing him that he had tested positive for the steroid stanozolol. Because of the appeals process, the positive test would not be revealed for several months.

On August 1, just 17 days after Palmeiro’s 3,000th hit, Commissioner Bud Selig announced that the 20-year veteran had been suspended for 10 days. On that day, Palmeiro went from a likely Hall of Famer to a pariah. He only played in seven games after the suspension and then his career was over.

Six years later, in 2011, Palmeiro debuted on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot and got 11.0% of the vote for the Hall of Fame (a 75% tally is required for enshrinement). Four years later, in 2015, Palmeiro got just 4.4% of the vote; because he was under the 5% minimum threshold, Palmeiro did not appear on any future ballots. Until now.

At the time of his suspension, Palmeiro said that the banned substance was contained in a supplement that was not prescribed. He maintains his innocence to this day.

“I didn’t do anything intentional to enhance myself. I already had 500 home runs, close to 3,000 hits. I had no reason to cheat. [The test] killed my career. It killed my personal life. It killed my friendships. It killed my opportunity to make money.”

— Rafael Palmeiro (to Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci), Nov 16., 2022

In this piece, I will briefly recap Rafael Palmeiro’s career and conclude by offering my opinion on whether he deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame, and also if and when I believe it will ever happen for him.

Cooperstown Cred: Rafael Palmeiro (1B)

4 years on the BBWAA Ballot (received 4.4% of the vote in 2014)

• Cubs (1986-88), Rangers (1989-93, 1999-03), Orioles (1994-98, 2004-05)
• Career: .288 BA, .371 OBP, .515 SLG, 569 HR, 1,835 RBI, 3,020 Hits
• Career: 71.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 132 OPS+
• 1,192 career extra-base hits (tied for 8th most all-time)
• 30 or more home runs 10 times in his career
• 3 times in the Top 10 MVP voting
• 4-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner

Rafael Palmeiro: Before the Majors

Rafael Palmeiro was born on September 24, 1964, in Havana, Cuba. His father Jose was a superb center fielder for a top Cuban amateur team. Palmeiro and his parents emigrated to the United States in 1971, settling in Miami.

Palmeiro, a star at Jackson High School, was selected in the 8th round of the 1982 draft by the New York Mets but decided instead to accept a scholarship to Mississippi State, where he played with another future star in Major League Baseball, Will Clark. As a freshman, Palmeiro started his college career with a 20-game hitting streak. Playing in the outfield, he led the Bulldogs with 18 home runs and a .406 batting average.

As a sophomore, Palmeiro became the first player to win the SEC’s Triple Crown with a .415 BA, 29 home runs, and 94 RBI. Clark hit 28 home runs and the duo became known as “Thunder and Lightning.” Palmeiro slumped a bit in his junior year (batting “only” .300 with 20 HR and 67 RBI) which might explain why he didn’t get selected at the top of the 1985 draft. He fell to the 22nd pick, selected by the Chicago Cubs (Clark went #2 overall to the San Francisco Giants).

The 20-year-old Palmeiro spent the rest of the summer with Peoria in the Midwest League (Class A). In 1986, Palmeiro spent most of the season with Pittsfield in the Eastern League (AA) before getting a September call-up to the majors.

1986-88: Chicago Cubs

Rafael Palmeiro made his Major League Baseball debut on September 8, 1986, at Wrigley Field. Playing for manager Gene “Stick” Michael, Palmeiro started most of the Cubs’ final 24 games, primarily in left field. He got his first MLB hit in his fourth at bat (an RBI single off Tom Hume) and hit his first home run the next day (a three-run tater off Kevin Gross).

He started the 1987 season with the Iowa Cubs in the American Association (AAA) before getting recalled to the big club in mid-June. The lefty-swinging Palmeiro was used almost exclusively against right-handed pitching (213 out of his 244 PA were against righties), filling in at first base, left field, and right field.

The Cubs had a new skipper in 1988 (Don Zimmer), who played Palmeiro full-time as the team’s starting left fielder (rookie Mark Grace was at first base). The 23-year-old Palmeiro got off to a fast start (he was hitting .351 as of June 1st) which helped him make his first All-Star squad.

Despite hitting .307 (second best in the N.L. to future Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn), Palmeiro’s power output (8 HR, 53 RBI) and defense didn’t enthrall.

After the season, he was traded with Jamie Moyer in a nine-player deal that brought six players back to the Cubs, including Mitch Williams. Hall of Fame writer Jerome Holtzman offered his take in a column with the headline “Calm down, Palmeiro fans, it was a good deal for Cubs.”

“The Rafael Palmeiro who was with the Cubs last season was a below-average fielder and didn’t have much speed. Also, I don’t recall him making many swift and accurate throws to the plate… Nobody knows how deals will work out. People still continue to chew on the Lou Brock trade of 25 years ago, but when it was made, the reaction here, both professional and amateur, was that it was a good deal for the Cubs.”

— Jerome Holtzman (Chicago Tribune), December 11, 2018.

Oops.

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

Incidentally, for whatever its worth, three of Palmeiro’s teammates on the Cubs from 1986-88 (Greg Maddux, Ryne Sandberg, and Lee Smith) are on the Contemporary Baseball Committee that will evaluate Palmeiro and the other seven candidates tomorrow.

1989-93: Texas Rangers

In moving from Chicago to Dallas, Rafael Palmeiro went from a 77-win team to a 70-win team. Ironically, the Cubs won the N.L. East in 1989. Meanwhile, under manager Bobby Valentine, the Rangers improved to 83 wins in ’89, thanks in part to a pair of other acquisitions (second baseman Julio Franco and future Hall of Fame starter Nolan Ryan). Palmeiro took over at first base, replacing Pete O’Brien, who had been traded for Franco.

Holtzman’s analysis looked prescient based on Palmeiro’s first season with the Rangers (he hit just .275 with 8 HR and 64 RBI) but the young star improved significantly in 1990, hitting .319 while leading the American League with 191 hits.

Palmeiro made his first A.L. All-Star squad in 1991, a season in which he hit .322 with 203 hits, 115 runs scored, and 49 doubles, which was the most in all of baseball. He also upped his power output to 26 home runs, leading to a .532 slugging percentage and a 155 OPS+ (which would be the best mark of his 20-year career).

After regressing slightly in 1992 (.268 BA, 123 OPS+), Palmeiro had a monster campaign in 1993. He surpassed 30 home runs and 100 RBI for the first time and posted a 150 OPS+ with a 6.9 WAR (a career-best). He also led the A.L. with 124 runs scored. He also had an excellent defensive campaign (leading the league in putouts, assists, and double plays turned).

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

1993 was Palmeiro’s free-agent “walk year” and he reportedly asked for a six-year, $40 million contract. He turned down the Rangers’ initial offer (five years, $26 million) and the team immediately turned to their “Plan B,” signing Will Clark. Palmeiro wound up with a five-year, $30.35 contract with the Baltimore Orioles.

The other notable aspect of the 1993 season is that it was Jose Canseco’s first full campaign with the Rangers (he had been traded to Texas by the Oakland Athletics on August 31, 1992). In his book Juiced, Canseco claims that he injected Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, and Ivan Rodriguez with steroids shortly after the trade. For whatever it’s worth, Palmeiro hit 15 home runs in his first 134 games in 1992 and then swatted 7 in his final 25, after the Canseco trade. And then, of course, he hit 37 long balls in 1993.

1994-98: Baltimore Orioles

Rafael Palmeiro spent five productive seasons with the Orioles and played with multiple future Hall of Famers (Cal Ripken Jr., Roberto Alomar, Eddie Murray, Harold Baines, Mike Mussina, and Lee Smith). He earned down-ballot MVP votes in each of his five campaigns in Baltimore.

In 1996, under new manager Davey Johnson, Palmeiro got his first taste of postseason baseball; the O’s were the Wild Card team in the new eight-team playoff format. The Orioles defeated the defending A.L. Champion Cleveland Indians in the A.L. Division Series, with Palmeiro hitting his first postseason home run in Game 4 off Charles Nagy.

In Game 1 of the ALCS (against the New York Yankees), Palmeiro went 3 for 3 with a 4th-inning tater off Andy Pettitte in what was ultimately a losing effort. In Game 2, he hit a tie-breaking 7th-inning, two-run homer off Jeff Nelson to lead the O’s to their only victory in the series. (The Yankees won in 5 games and ultimately defeated the Atlanta Braves in the World Series). Palmeiro went 0 for 10 in the last three games of the ALCS.

The Orioles advanced to the ALCS again in 1997, defeating the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS before succumbing to the Indians in the ALCS. In the pivotal Game 3, won by the Tribe in 12 innings, Palmeiro struck out with two outs and runners on first and second in the top of the 9th and with two outs and the bases loaded in the top of the 11th. Overall, the O’s first baseman slashed .270/.289/.459 in the ’97 postseason.

In 1997, Palmeiro won the first of three consecutive Gold Glove Awards. In 1998, he made the All-Star team for the third time and surpassed 40 home runs for the first time in his career. He also won his first Silver Slugger Award.

After the season, he re-signed with the Texas Rangers for $45 million over five years.

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

1999-2003: Texas Rangers

With the Texas Rangers, Rafael Palmeiro was reunited with Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and manager Johnny Oates, who was the Orioles skipper in 1994. Palmeiro made a triumphant return to Dallas, establishing career bests in all slash line categories (.324 BA, .420 OBP, .630 SLG), home runs (47), and RBI (148). He was an All-Star for the fourth and final time and finished 5th in the MVP vote (his highest showing ever). He also won his second (and last) Silver Slugger Award as the league’s top-hitting designated hitter.

If you’re wondering why Palmeiro was primarily a DH in 1999, it’s because of two arthroscopic knee surgeries in the offseason. Ironically, Palmeiro won his third (and final) Gold Glove Award despite playing only 28 games in the field. The ’99 Rangers won the American League West but were swept in the ALDS by the Yankees, with Palmeiro slashing .273/.333/.273 in what was his last postseason appearance.

Palmeiro’s performance from 2000-03 was slightly down from his monster 1999 campaign but he was the model of consistency, averaging 42 home runs with 115 RBI and a 135 OPS+.

On May 11, 2003, he hit his 500th career home run in what was his 2,450th career game. He was the 19th player to reach the 500 home run milestone. At the time, Palmeiro reached the milestone in the 9th fewest games in baseball history, behind only Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Willie McCovey, and Ernie Banks. A future plaque in Cooperstown seemed a given.

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

2004-05: Baltimore Orioles

At the age of 39 after the 2003 campaign, Rafael Palmeiro decided to return to the Orioles. After having hit 37 or more home runs in eleven straight seasons (excluding the strike-shortened 1994 campaign), Palmeiro hit just 23 taters in 2004. His 108 OPS+ was his lowest since 1989, and his 0.8 WAR was his lowest since 1987.

As we’ve already reviewed, the year 2005 was the worst one of Palmeiro’s entire life. Canseco’s book came out in February, he had the infamous testimony to Congress and was suspended for testing positive for PEDs. The only highlight in what was his final campaign was that 3,000th career hit.

WP Table Builder

The PED suspension was only for 10 games but, after playing in just seven more games, his career was over.

Conclusion: Will Rafael Palmeiro Make the Hall of Fame?

First things first. I think there’s virtually no chance that Rafael Palmeiro will be elected to the Hall of Fame tomorrow by the 16 members of the Contemporary Baseball Eras Committee. For this to happen, the committee would have to collectively agree to elect only players connected to PEDs to the Hall. This is because Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are also on the ballot and it’s unthinkable that anyone would vote for Palmeiro but not for Bonds or Clemens.

Since there are only eight candidates on the ballot and the voters can only choose three names, there would have to be 12 members of the committee who decide to induct a PED trifecta, bypassing all of the other candidates (Curt Schilling, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly). If that were to happen, the committee would be making a declarative statement that PED usage no longer matters.

I do think it’s possible (likely even) that members of the committee will vote for Bonds and Clemens. These two were all-time greats in the history of baseball. Given that all five of the “clean” candidates have flaws in their resumes, a vote for Bonds, Clemens, and one of the other five is entirely plausible. But Palmeiro as the third vote? I just don’t see it.

Will he make it eventually? The answer is “probably not.” The first thing that would have to happen is that Bonds and Clemens get elected by this committee (or a future one). Then, the second thing that would have to happen is for another person to make it to Cooperstown who was actually suspended for PED use. Given that Alex Rodriguez is an all-time great player and got only 34% of the vote this January (Manny Ramirez got 29%), this isn’t going to be happening anytime soon.

Should Rafael Palmeiro Be Elected to the Hall of Fame Eventually?

For me, the answer to this question is an unenthusiastic “yes.” I won’t belabor the point because I wrote about this extensively in my piece about Bonds and Clemens but I believe that the players from the 1990s and early 2000s who were linked to PEDs are both victims and villains.

Why do I call them victims? It’s because there was a “keeping up with the Joneses” factor at play. If you were a driven, competitive athlete and you knew that other players were using PEDs, the temptation had to be strong. Add in the fact that the sport had no mandatory drug-testing program until 2005 and you had an “anything goes” permission structure.

Additionally, I feel that those of us who were in the media in the 1990s were somewhat complicit as well. When Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were chasing the hallowed home run record of Roger Maris, it was pretty obvious that something was a bit off. But almost all of us turned a blind eye because all of the home runs were fun!

The final factor, for me, is that I have no doubt that at least one PED user has already been elected into the Hall of Fame. I’m talking about Ivan Rodriguez, who was “outed” by Canseco in the same book in which he pointed the proverbial finger at Palmeiro. Rodriguez was a first-ballot inductee to Cooperstown in 2017.

The reason that Rodriguez made it to Cooperstown while Bonds and Clemens never did is that the only link of I-Rod to PEDs was in the Canseco books. Rodriguez was not named in the Mitchell Report on steroids; Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, and many others were. It’s as simple as that. There’s a randomness to that and it bothers me. Geroge Mitchell and his staff weren’t able to look into everyone; Rodriguez got lucky. Maybe he never used PEDs but Canseco says that he did and I can’t think of a reason that Canseco would have just made it up. After all, his second book was called Vindicated because most of what he wrote about in that 2005 book was further documented in the years that followed.

One last thing: it’s possible that two things can be true at the same time. It may be true that Palmeiro has never told the truth about using PEDs during his career but he might be telling the truth when he says he wasn’t using PEDs in 2005, the year in which he got suspended. It could have been a mistake with a supplement, which he claims.

Palmeiro’s defense is that he had no reason to mess around with the new drug-testing program because he had already hit 500 home runs and was close to 3,000 hits. This argument is compelling. I was stunned when I heard the news of his suspension. All I could think of is, “what an idiot, why didn’t he stop?” I don’t have an answer to that question.

Anyway, based on being one of the seven members of the 500-HR and 3,000-hit club, Rafael Palmeiro, in my opinion, deserves an eventual spot in the Hall of Fame. But I wouldn’t vote for him on this year’s ballot. I would vote for Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Embed from Getty Images