Redbird Royalty: Lou Brock (1939-2020)

In the second part of a two-part series on the loss of two St. Louis baseball legends in 2020, I offer this tribute to the former all-time stolen base king, Lou Brock. A few days ago I shared my thoughts on the great Bob Gibson, one of the fiercest competitors that ever stood on a Major League Baseball mound. Today, I reflect on the Cardinal great known as The Franchise. The two men were teammates for 12 years, won a pair of World Series titles together, and were both elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame in the early 1980s.

Brock and Gibson were two of many members of the Hall of Fame family to pass away in 2020. This year, we’ve also lost some of baseball’s all-time great players: Al Kaline, Tom Seaver, Whitey Ford, and Joe Morgan.

Brock passed away on September 6th at the age of 81. Brock had been in ill health for many years; he had his left leg amputated in 2015 due to a diabetes infection. Since 2017, he had been battling myeloma, a type of blood cancer.

Cooperstown Cred: Lou Brock (LF)

• Inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1985 (with 79.7% of the vote)
• Cubs (1961-64), Cardinals (1964-79)
• Career: .293 BA, .343 OBP, .410 SLG, 3,023 Hits, 1,610 Runs
• Career: 938 SB (2nd most SB all-time to Rickey Henderson)
• Career: 109 OPS+, 45.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1974: set single-season record with 118 SB (2nd best now to Henderson)
• Led the N.L. in Stolen Bases 8 times
• 200 or more Hits 4 times
• 5 times in the top 10 of the N.L. MVP voting
• 6-time All-Star
• Won 2 World Series Championships with the St. Louis Cardinals (1964 & 1967)
• World Series batting: .391 BA/.424 OBP/.655 SLG, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 14 SB (21 games)

(cover photo: Crescent City Sports)

Lou Brock: Early Career

Louis Clark Brock was born on June 18, 1939, in El Dorado, Arkansas, which is a small city in the southern part of the state. He spent most of his childhood growing in Collinston, Louisiana, a small town in the northeast corner of that state. Lou’s father left the family shortly after his birth; his mother was a sharecropper who picked cotton. Brock didn’t play organized baseball until he was in the 11th grade. As a latecomer to the game, Brock hit just .189 as a freshman at Southern University in Baton Rouge but hit .545 as a sophomore, with 13 home runs in just 27 games.

While playing at Southern, Brock caught the attention of Negro Leagues legend Buck O’Neil, who was a scout for the Chicago Cubs; the team signed him in August 1960 a few months after his 21st birthday. Brock only spent one year in the minor leagues (in St. Cloud, Minnesota). In this league (the Northern League, Class A), Brock was dominant: he hit. 361 with 14 HR, 82 RBI, and 38 SB in 128 games. It earned him a September cup of coffee with the Cubs, where he got 1 hit in 12 at bats.

Embed from Getty Images

Brock was a center-fielder in his rookie campaign in 1962. Still a raw talent, he hit .263 with an OPS+ of 92 (8 points below league average). Although his speed was obvious, he was not set loose on the basepaths: he stole 16 bases out of 23 attempts. He hit 9 home runs (with just 35 RBI in 477 PA) as a rookie. Although he wasn’t known as (and never would be known as) a power hitter, the left-handed-hitting Brock became just the 3rd batter in Major League Baseball history to hit a home run over the center-field wall in the Polo Grounds; his titanic blast (estimated at 470 feet) was the first to land in the right-center field bleachers. (Babe Ruth was the first player to hit a ball over that wall, Joe Adcock the second, and Hank Aaron became the fourth the day after Brock’s towering shot).

Brock’s sophomore campaign in Major League Baseball went about the same as his rookie year. He hit .258 (91 OPS+) with 9 HR, 37 RBI, and 24 SB in 588 PA.

Trade to St. Louis

Lou Brock is known for playing left field almost exclusively in his years in St. Louis but he was in center field for the Cubs in 1962 and in right field in ’63 and ’64. Offensively, he got off to a very slow start in ’64 (hitting .251 with just 2 HR in 231 PA). The Cubs decided to give up on the fleet-footed outfielder, dealing him to the St. Louis Cardinals on June 15th, three days before his 25th birthday. The Redbirds had a good starting rotation (led by Gibson) and a respectable cast of position players (led by Ken Boyer, who would go on to be the league MVP) but were lacking in speed.

Thus, Cardinals General Manager Bing Devine decided to take a gamble by trading for the young outfielder, with pitcher Ernie Broglio being the famous centerpiece of the 6-player deal. (Veteran reliever Bobby Shantz, then 38 and in what would be his final season, was the other known well-known player in the trade that went from St. Louis to Chicago).

Broglio had been a 21-game winner in his 2nd MLB campaign (in 1960) and gone 18-8 with a 2.99 ERA in 1963, his age 27 season. The Brock-for-Broglio deal has famously been known as one of the most lopsided trades in baseball history but, at the time, it was controversial and unpopular among the veterans in the Cardinals’ clubhouse. Prominent Chicago Daily News columnist Bob Smith, who had written in April 1963 that Brock was “the worst outfielder in baseball history,” embraced the acquisition of Broglio: “Thank you, thank you, oh, you lovely St. Louis Cardinals. Nice doing business with you. Please call again anytime.”

At the time, Broglio’s right elbow was bothering him but he assured the Cubs that it wasn’t a big deal. He was quite wrong. Broglio would eventually need surgery at the end of the ’64 campaign to remove bone chips and a damaged ulnar nerve. He would only manage to pitch 113 innings in the next two years before his career came to an end. Ultimately, Broglio went 7-19 with a 5.40 ERA for the Cubs while Lou Brock eventually won two World Series and went to the Hall of Fame as a member of the Cardinals.

Shantz only appeared in 20 games for the Cubs, logging a 5.56 ERA before being sold to the Philadelphia Phillies, for whom he logged 32 innings to close out his career. The third player sent to Chicago in the Brock trade was backup outfielder Doug Clemens, who hit .238 with 6 HR and 38 RBI in 182 games for the Cubs. Yep, this was a bad deal for Chicago.

In Chicago, the speedy Brock was only allowed to run when he was given permission. With the Cardinals, manager Johnny Keane gave him the green light to go whenever he felt the time was right. He stole 33 bases with the Redbirds in ’64 (he was also caught 15 times). Still, the confidence Keane showed in Brock sparked him offensively. He hit .348 with 12 HR, 44 RBI, and 81 Runs Scored in just 103 games in a Cardinal uniform. The Cards, who had a 28-30 record at the time of the trade, went 65-39 down the stretch to win the N.L. pennant. Using today’s metrics, Brock posted a 5.7 WAR (with a 146 OPS+) in those 108 games after a 0.2 WAR (77 OPS+) in 52 games for the Cubs in the same year.

The ’64 pennant race is forever best known as the one in which the Philadelphia Phillies lost 10 games in a row in the season’s final weeks. The Cardinals closed strong, winning 28 out of their last 39 games, with Brock hitting .360 (to go with a 1.009 OPS) in those 39 games.

The 1964 World Series

The World Series opened in St. Louis with the Cardinals facing the New York Yankees, who had appeared in 14 of the previous 17 Fall Classics, winning 10 of them. Future Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (who also passed away in 2020) was on the mound for the Yankees. As the Redbirds’ #2 hitter (behind Curt Flood), Brock singled to right field after fouling off five consecutive pitches. He went first to third on the ensuing single by Dick Groat and scored on a sacrifice fly to right by Boyer. Brock added an outfield assist (throwing out Ford at home plate in the 2nd inning) and a 2-run double in the 8th to lead St. Louis to a 9-5 Game 1 victory.

Brock went 0-for-12 in the next three games but his bat came alive in Game 5; he went 7-for-13 in the final three games of the series, hitting a solo home run in the Cardinals’ Game 7 victory. Bob Gibson (who won Games 4 and 7) was deservedly the World Series MVP, with catcher Tim McCarver (.455/.552/.739, 1 HR, 5 RBI) and Brock (.300/.300/.467, 1 HR, 5 RBI) the top offensive stars.

Embed from Getty Images

Leadoff Man

During his first year in St. Louis, Lou Brock played in all but one of 104 games his team contested after the trade. Brock remained a mainstay in the Cardinals lineup for the next 10 years, averaging 156 games played and 708 plate appearances per season. After batting 2nd in ’64, new manager Red Schoendienst (a Hall of Famer as a player) installed him at the top of the order starting in 1965. Brock spent the vast majority of the rest of his years in the leadoff spot, dropping to #2 again in his final season (1979).

In the #1 spot, Brock was aggressive, both at the plate and on the bases. Despite the obvious advantages of getting on base, Brock never became prolific at drawing walks, averaging just 51 bases on balls per year from 1965-74 while striking out an average of 110 times per campaign. He did, however, average 193 hits per season, putting him on base enough to attempt 84 steals per campaign. During those 10 seasons, he swiped a stunning 670 bags while getting caught 194 times (for a success rate of 77.5%). In an era decades before the widespread use of video study, Brock bought an 8mm-camera in which he taped opposing pitchers’ pickoff moves to aid him in learning when the time was right to try to swipe a base.

Thanks to his ability to leg out base hits and advance around the bases, he hit .298 and averaged 104 runs scored per season for those 10 full-time campaigns.

Brock’s initial success in St. Louis was stunning (.346 BA, 146 OPS+). As good as he was in getting hits, stealing bases, and scoring runs, he never quite matched that level of success again. His highest OPS+ during the rest of his time with the Cardinals was 128 (in 1967). He hit over .300 seven times but always by a small amount, his BA ranging from .221 (in 1978) to .313 (in 1971).

In 1965, his first full season with the Cardinals, Brock hit .288 (114 OPS+) with then career-bests in HR (16) and RBI (69). He also upped his speed game, swiping 63 bases (with 27 CS) after stealing 43 bags in 1964.

Brock’s 1966 campaign was similar but somewhat diminished from ’65 (.285 BA, 107 OPS+, 15 HR, 46 RBI) but he led the majors with 74 stolen bases while only being caught 18 times for an excellent 80% success rate.

The fleet-footed left fielder, in his age 28 season, finally made his first All-Star team in 1967. He hit a robust .299 (128 OPS+) while establishing career highs in HR (21), 76 (RBI), and Runs Scored (113). Although he stole “only” 52 bases, that was enough to lead the National League, and his overall performance was good enough to finish 7th in the N.L. MVP vote.

The 1967 World Series

After two disappointing seasons following the ’64 World Series, the 1967 Cardinals clicked on all cylinders, thanks to new acquisitions Orlando Cepeda (the N.L. MVP) and Roger Maris as well as the emergence of a starting rotation to follow Bob Gibson, which included a 22-year old left-hander named Steve Carlton.

Thanks to Brock’s big season, plus Cepeda’s superb year and a career-best season from McCarver, the Cards won 101 games to easily take the N.L. pennant. In the World Series, the Redbirds were matched up against the Boston Red Sox, who were led by Triple Crown winner Carl Yastrzemski, like Brock and Gibson a future first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Game 1 (at Fenway Park in Boston) was the Gibson-Brock show. Gibson gave up one run in 9 innings (to go with 10 strikeouts) while Brock went 4 for 4 with a walk, two stolen bases, and two runs scored. Those two runs were the only ones scored by the Cards in a 2-1 victory. Ultimately the Cardinals prevailed in a series that went the full 7 games with Gibson winning another MVP (thanks to 3 wins). Brock was the hitting star, slashing .414/.452/.655 with a home run, 3 RBI, 8 Runs, and 7 SB (without getting caught once).

Embed from Getty Images

The 1968 World Series

In 1968, Bob Gibson had one of the greatest pitching seasons in the history of baseball (22-9, 1.12 ERA) while Brock had one of the best campaigns of his 19-year career. Besides leading all of MLB in stolen bases (62, against 12 times getting caught), he led all of baseball in doubles (46) and triples (14). In the “year of the pitcher,” he hit a well-above-average .279, posting a 124 OPS+ and career-best 5.8 WAR. Of course, the baseball writers were not contemplating statistics like WAR and OPS+ but they recognized the rest of Brock’s game with a 6th place MVP finish.

Thanks to Gibson and Brock, the Cardinals won another N.L. pennant, giving them a date in the Fall Classic with the Detroit Tigers. In Game 1, Gibson had a start for the ages (pitching a 5-hit shutout to go with a record 17 strikeouts) and Brock contributed a solo HR to help power the Redbirds’ 4-0 victory.

After the Tigers easily won Game 2, Brock went 3 for 4 with a walk, 3 steals, and a run scored in the Cards’ 7-3 win in Game 3. Game 4 was a blowout in the Redbirds’ favor (a 10-1 win) with Brock setting the pace by leading off the game with a solo HR off 31-game winner Denny McLain, who would win the A.L. Cy Young Award. After that leadoff tater, Brock added a double and a triple while plating 3 additional runs.

With a series lead of 3 Games to 1, the Cards needed just one more win to clinch their third World Series title in the span of five seasons. Brock led off Game 5 (against Mickey Lolich) with a double to left field; he scored two batters later on a single by Curt Flood. Cepeda followed with a 2-run home run, giving St. Louis a 3-0 lead. Brock led off the top of the 3rd with a single but was gunned down at 2nd by Tigers’ catcher Bill Freehan. After the Tigers cut the lead to 3-2, Brock hit a one-out double in the 5th inning. In one of the most famous plays of the series, he attempted to score on a single by Julian Javier but was thrown out at home by left fielder Willie Horton. After future Hall of Famer Al Kaline (who also passed away this year) and Norm Cash delivered 7th inning RBI singles, the Tigers went on to win 5-3.

The Tigers won a laugher in Game 6 by a 13-1 margin setting up a Game 7 classic at Busch Stadium between Gibson and Lolich. After the two starters matched zeroes through the first five innings, Brock led off the bottom of the 6th with a single to left. Lolich, a crafty left-hander, shut down a potential rally before it even started by picking Brock off first base; he did the same to end the inning after a two-out single by Flood.

In the next inning (the top of the 7th), the Tigers managed 3 runs against the seemingly unbeatable Gibson and went on to win the game 4-1 and the franchise’s first World Series title since 1945.

Overall, Lou Brock, in his final postseason appearance, slashed .464/.516/.857 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, and 7 stolen bases in the losing effort. For his October career, Brock hit .391 with 14 steals, 16 runs, 4 HR, and 13 RBI in just 21 games.

Taking Stock: Lou Brock through his Age 31 Season

Baseball’s expansion in 1969 created two divisions per league, making it a bit easier for each team to make the postseason. However, the St. Louis Cardinals would not win the N.L. East until 1982, which was three years after Lou Brock’s final season. Brock was a better overall player from 1964-69 than he would be from 1970-79 but he became a Hall of Famer in the 1970s.

Brock had good seasons in 1969-70 although they were not quite up to the standards of his previous campaigns:

• 1969: .298 BA (119 OPS+), 12 HR, 47 RBI, 53 SB, 195 Hits, 97 Runs, 3.0 WAR
• 1970: .304 BA (108 OPS+), 13 HR, 57 RBI, 51 SB, 202 Hits, 114 Runs, 1.9 WAR

The 1970 campaign was the only one from 1966-1974 in which he did not lead the National League in Stolen Bases (Bobby Tolan’s 57 SB led the Senior Circuit that year).

Brock was 31 years old at the end of the 1970 season. In his first 10 MLB seasons, he had won two World Series titles on very good teams but was otherwise not a player who screamed “Hall of Famer.” He had made only one All-Star team (in 1967) and had won no Gold Gloves. He had finished in the top 10 of the MVP vote three times but never in the top 5. He had a .289 career batting average with 1,608 hits and 438 stolen bases but players who make their money with their legs often fade in their 30’s.

1971-76: Lou Brock Runs to Cooperstown

As history has shown, Lou Brock did not fade in his 30’s, he thrived. It was the years of 1971-76, Brock’s age 32 to age 37 seasons, that represent the foundation of his resume as a Hall of Famer. He made four All-Star squads during these six campaigns and earned at least some MVP consideration in all of them. Brock stole 355 bases during the six-year period between 1965-70 but upped that total to 427 swiped bags from ’71-76. Those 427 SB were 77 more than the total for the 2nd most prolific base-stealer during those years (Joe Morgan, who passed away this fall just a few weeks after Brock).

Brock hit a robust .306 during these six campaigns (while posting a respectable 114 OPS+). The best of these six seasons was the first (in 1971). With precisely 200 hits, Brock hit .313 while posting career-bests in OBP (.385) and Runs Scored (126), the latter number leading all of baseball.

1974 was the most famous of these seasons: in the year in which he turned 35 years of age, Brock set the modern game’s single-season mark for stolen bases with a whopping 118 bags swiped. (The previous high, by Maury Wills, was a 104 SB in 1962). As a young fan who started following baseball by collecting cards in 1975, this is how I learned about Lou Brock. The Franchise also hit .306 that season and scored 106 runs.

Thanks mostly to the stolen-base record, Brock finished a close second to Steve Garvey in the MVP balloting. Today, the metric of Wins Above Replacement might have created a different outcome: Garvey’s WAR (4.4) was better than Brock’s (3.5) but both men were far behind the likes of Mike Schmidt (9.7), Morgan (8.5), Johnny Bench (7.7) and Jim Wynn (7.5).

Brock’s ability to keep stealing bases at a prolific rate in his mid-30’s is due to the science that he applied to the craft. Thanks to the knowledge gained by his intense study of opposing hurlers, Brock was able to pioneer the “rolling start,” which gave him momentum as he would begin his attempted steal. In his record-setting 118-SB campaign of 1974, his success rate was 78%.

The photo below is from September 10th, 1974. It was Brock’s 105th stolen base, the one that broke Wills’ single-season record.

Embed from Getty Images

The All-Time Stolen Base King

Lou Brock finally started getting old in 1977, his age 38 season. He hit .272 with a .317 OBP (for a below-average 81 OPS+) and his stolen base success rate finally declined into “it’s not worth it to try” territory (not that anybody understood the relationship between stolen base attempts and win probabilities at the time). He stole 35 bags in ’78 but was also caught stealing 24 times (for a weak 59% success rate).

Among those 35 thefts was his 893rd, breaking the modern all-time record set by Ty Cobb early in the 20th century. The record-setting steal occurred in late August in San Diego. Brock finished the season with 900 career stolen bases.

After injuries limited The Franchise to just 92 games and 21 steals in 1978, Brock had somewhat of a renaissance season in ’79, his final MLB campaign. Before the ’79 campaign, there were rumblings that Brock should walk away from the game but, with 2,900 career hits, he was determined to end his career in style.

Lou Brock’s Final Campaign

The Cardinals weren’t sure but decided to give their longtime star a chance to prove that he wasn’t washed up and Lou Brock did not disappoint. Playing for his former teammate Ken Boyer (who had taken over as manager in 1978), through the end of May Brock was hitting .381 to lead the National League in batting. Although Brock did not even make the All-Star ballot, N.L. manager Tommy Lasorda announced in early June that he would name Brock as a reserve to the league’s roster for the Mid-Summer Classic, saying “Lou Brock has made a great contribution to the game. He’s going to be there.”

Although his average had dipped to .322 by the time of the actual All-Star Game (in Seattle’s Kingdome), Brock was there. Lasorda gave Brock the honor of delivering the N.L. lineup card to the umpires before the game. In the 4th inning, he pinch-hit for former teammate Steve Carlton (a fellow future Hall of Famer) and singled off another future Cooperstown inductee, Nolan Ryan.

There was one item of business left for Brock to attend to in his final campaign. He got it done on August 13th in front of 44,457 fans at Busch Stadium when he collected hits #2,999 and #3,000 off Chicago’s Dennis Lamp. The 3,000th knock was a hard line drive off Lamp’s hand and actually knocked the right-hander out of the game. At the time, he was just the 14th player in baseball history to get to the magic number of 3,000. Brock got 23 more hits during the season to finish his career with 3,023.

The greatest of all Redbirds, Hall of Famer Stan Musial, was on hand to present Brock the ball that he hit for #3,000.

Embed from Getty Images

Overall, Brock hit .304 with a 100 OPS+ while stealing 21 bags in his 19th and final season on the diamond. The 21 thefts gave him a career total of 938, bested since only by Rickey Henderson.

Cooperstown Comes Calling for Lou Brock

Lou Brock’s uniform (#20) was retired by the Cardinals at the end of the 1979 season. He was honored with “Lou Brock Day” on September 9th and stole a base in the game. He was a first-ballot selection to the Hall of Fame in 1985, earning 79.7% of the vote in an election that requires a 75% tally to get a plaque in the museum in Cooperstown, New York.

On the day after getting the Hall call, Brock referred to his stolen-base ability as “baserunning arrogance.” He defined that term as “just a factor which forces one out of a comfort zone. It’s almost as if somebody is standing there turning up or down the thermostat. It’s not based on fear but on knowledge” (the knowledge being that every pitcher knew that Brock was likely to be running).

Brock said that he did not consider himself a Hall of Fame candidate until 1977 and considered his 3,000 hits as his most important accomplishment: “Three thousand hits fuse your career. They take you out of the category of a baserunner. Al Kaline (who also passed away in 2020) is the only other guy to get 3,000 hits and not hit .300 to get into the Hall.” Brock’s statistical analysis was correct: Kaline was indeed the only other sub-.300 hitter to collect 3,000 hits to make it to Cooperstown, although Carl Yastrzemski would join their ranks the next year and six others would do so in the years that followed (including Henderson).

The Uniqueness of Brock’s Late-Career Run

As previously noted, Lou Brock kept himself in good running shape nearly all the way until the end of his 19-year career. His ability to continue to steal bases into his mid-to-late 30’s is exceedingly rare in the history of baseball. As we know, Rickey Henderson eventually blitzed past Brock’s records (with 130 steals in 1982 and an incredible 1,402 for his career). And Rickey, like Brock, kept running late into his career, swiping an ML-best 66 bags in 1998, his age 39 season.

But Rickey really piled up the numbers early in his career: he surpassed Brock’s all-time mark of 938 steals in just his 13th season, at the age of 32. In his first 7 full campaigns (1980-86), Henderson averaged 90 stolen bases per season. Rickey was unquestionably the superior base thief, succeeding in 81% of his career attempts (compared to 75% for Brock) but Brock still has the most steals in their age 31 seasons or later:

Here is the list of the seven players with the most SB in their age 31 seasons through the end of their careers (for the Modern Game, which is 1901 and beyond):

1. Lou Brock: 551
2. Rickey Henderson: 535
3. Otis Nixon: 478
4. Honus Wagner: 411
5. Davey Lopes: 381
6. Ichiro Suzuki: 352
7. Maury Wills: 350

(In case you’re curious, Ty Cobb swiped only 190 bags after his age 30 campaign while Tim Raines stole 174 bases in his age 31 season and beyond).

Was Lou Brock Overrated?

With Brock having passed away less than two months ago, I must admit I have wondered if it was a bit uncouth to write that headline. Still, this website is primarily devoted to analyzing the merits of potential candidates for the Hall of Fame.

I created “Cooperstown Cred” in the summer of 2017 and started promoting the site in the fall. One of the first players I wrote was about Raines, who was inducted into the Hall that summer. In that piece, I compared Raines’ career very favorably to Brock’s. The purpose was to indicate that if Raines, who had to wait 10 full years before the BBWAA gave him the necessary 75%, could be shown to be equal or better than The Franchise, he should be an easy call for Cooperstown.

WP Table Builder

As you can see here, even though Brock got to 3,000 hits (while Raines fell short at 2,605), Raines got on base more times in his career because of 569 additional walks. He got on base more times than Brock despite 881 fewer career plate appearances. He scored only 39 fewer runs despite those significantly fewer PA. Additionally, Raines’ stolen base success rate was dramatically better. For all of these reasons, plus superior defensive metrics, Raines’ WAR was significantly higher than Brock’s.

While it’s never been sold to be more than an approximation in establishing a player’s overall value, Wins Above Replacement is a useful tool in highlighting the aspects of a player’s game that contributes to winning baseball games. Generally speaking, if you find a position player with a surprisingly low WAR, there are one or two things you’re likely to find: a poor walk rate and/or poor defensive metrics. There are other factors but these are the big ones that differentiate modern thinking from “old school” thinking. In WAR, a player’s total times on base are more important than how many hits he gets. Also, a player’s success rate on the basepaths is more important than how many steals he actually has.

What is Base-Stealing Worth?

Sabermetric pioneer Bill James understood these things long before WAR was created. In particular, he knew what others needed decades to learn:

“More than any other statistical category, stolen bases fluctuate in response to everything else that changes in the game. This is because stolen bases aren’t—really—very important. Contrary to popular belief, stolen bases don’t create very many runs. Nor do they have very much to do with determining who wins and who loses. Good teams don’t steal very many more bases than bad teams. Stolen bases have come and gone throughout baseball history because they are a sort of trendy item, an offensive trinket that has attracted managers at times but has been blithely ignored by them at others.”

— Bill James (in Sports Illustrated, Sept 5, 1982)

Brock became a star (and base-stealing threat) in 1964 when home run rates were starting to decline. Brock also played 40% of his career games on artificial turf, which was a surface better-suited to his game: he hit .303 on turf (compared to .286 on grass) while his SB% was also better (76.5% to 74.5%).

Anyway, when it comes to WAR, Brock doesn’t get a lot of credit for his 938 stolen bases because they’re counter-balanced by the 307 times he was caught stealing. For this reason, in the 75 years since World War II, Brock’s 77.8 “Rbaser” (runs above or below average due to baserunning, per Baseball-Reference) is just 12th best even though his 938 steals are the 2nd most. On “Rbaser,” Henderson leads with 144.8, followed by Willie Wilson (121.0) and Raines (114.6).

Additionally, with respect to his WAR, Brock’s defensive metrics are poor, the fifth-worst among all players in baseball history who logged 10,000 or more PA. Are the defensive metrics (applied retroactively) fair? With the caveat that I hardly ever saw him play (and was very young when I did), I would have to say so. First of all, he didn’t win any Gold Gloves. Secondly, he led N.L. left fielders in errors 9 times while only recording the most putouts in 3 seasons.

It’s for these reasons that Brock ranks just 37th on Jay Jaffe’s JAWS list for left fielders (he’s 33rd in WAR). Brock’s career WAR puts him in the bottom tier of Cooperstown inductees and behind non-Hall of Fame left fielders such as Jose Cruz (54.4 WAR), Lance Berkman (52.0), Luis Gonzalez (51.7), Brian Downing (51.5), Minnie Minoso (50.2), and Roy White (46.8). (For the record, I’m a fan of Berkman’s candidacy and a strong advocate for Minoso).

Lou Brock’s Legacy

I’ll conclude by reiterating much of what I wrote years ago in the Raines piece and so allow me to defend The Franchise’s Cooperstown credentials.

As Bob Costas said on MLB Network many years ago, if you were playing a game of Strat-O-Matic baseball and had to pick Brock or Raines, you would choose Raines. But this is not to say that Lou Brock shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame. Brock did get 3,000 hits. He did set the all-time single-season and all-time career stolen base records (until broken by Henderson). I’m not going to apply retroactive thinking to the fact that people didn’t understand the win probabilities of stolen bases when Brock played. I guarantee nobody who ever watched him run would have agreed with today’s metric that says his running game was only worth 78 more runs than you’re average Tom, Dick, or Harry.

Plus, besides the hits and steals, Brock was also an integral part of three pennants and two World Series Championships with the St. Louis Cardinals. If you took Lou Brock away from the Cardinals in the 1960s, you would have had at least one less World Series title. Brock was clearly one of the team’s three best players in 1964 (with Bob Gibson and Ken Boyer); the team won the pennant by a single game and the Series in seven games over the Yankees. If you took Brock away from that team, they would not have won the pennant.

The 101-win Cardinals squad of 1967 was more of a super-team and won the pennant by 10 games so you can’t argue that any single player was indispensable. But in the Fall Classic, another seven-game series (this time against the Boston Red Sox), Brock was the hitting star, batting. 414, stealing 7 bases (without being caught) while scoring 8 runs.

Finally, although the Redbirds fell in seven games to the Detroit Tigers in the 1968 series, Brock was the star player in the losing effort, hitting .464 with 2 HR, 5 RBI, and another 7 steals.

This is the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of WAR. Lou Brock absolutely deserves his plaque in Cooperstown.

Within less than a month, Cardinals fans around the globe lost two of their very best with the passing of Brock and Bob Gibson. Rest in peace, Lou. Rest in peace, Bob.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Embed from Getty Images