Early this evening, Mariano Rivera made history as he was unanimously elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. Rivera received all 425 of the votes cast by the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). Prior to today’s announcement, the closest that any other player got to 100% was Ken Griffey Jr., who received all but three votes in 2016.
Joining the longtime New York Yankees reliever in the Hall of Fame Class of 2019 are the late Roy Halladay, who received 85.6% of the vote and Edgar Martinez, who also tallied 85.6% of the ballots cast. Rounding out the Class of 2019 is Mike Mussina. The soft-spoken hurler, who spent 18 years pitching for the Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, finished with 76.7% of the vote to give the BBWAA it’s third four-person class in the last five years.
Halladay, the ace starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies who passed away in a plane crash in November 2017, becomes the first player elected posthumously in a normal election by the BBWAA since Rabbit Maranville in 1954. Roberto Clemente was elected by a special election in 1973, shortly after a New Years Eve plane crash ended his life.
Martinez, a third baseman turned designated hitter for the Seattle Mariners, becomes just the sixth player to be inducted into the Hall in his final year of BBWAA ballot eligibility.
Mussina, in his 6th year on the ballot, made a huge jump from 63.5% of the vote in 2018 to clear the bar and make it in 2019. Besides the question about whether Rivera would be a unanimous selection, the biggest drama of the vote announcement was the inclusion of Moose in the 2019 Hall Class. Many projection models (including mine) had Mussina falling just a bit short.
Four other players received between 50% and 75% of the vote: Curt Schilling (60.9%), Roger Clemens (59.5%), Barry Bonds (59.1%), and Larry Walker (54.6%). Fred McGriff, the slugging first baseman who finished with 493 career home runs, received 39.8% of the vote in his final year of eligibility while 11-time Gold Glove Award winner Omar Vizquel received 42.8% of the vote in his second season on the ballot.
Each BBWAA writer was limited to a maximum of 10 selections on their ballot.
Here are the final vote percentages for the 23 players who received at least one vote:
| Player | Vote % | YOB | 2018 Vote | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariano Rivera | 100% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Roy Halladay | 85.4% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Edgar Martinez | 85.4% | 10th | 70.4% | +15.0% |
| Mike Mussina | 76.7% | 6th | 63.5% | +13.2% |
| Curt Schilling | 60.9% | 7th | 51.2% | +9.7% |
| Roger Clemens | 59.5% | 7th | 57.3% | +2.2% |
| Barry Bonds | 59.1% | 7th | 56.4% | +2.7% |
| Larry Walker | 54.6% | 9th | 34.1% | +20.5% |
| Omar Vizquel | 42.8% | 2nd | 37.0% | +5.8% |
| Fred McGriff | 39.8% | 10th | 23.2% | +16.6% |
| Manny Ramirez | 22.8% | 3rd | 22.0% | +0.8% |
| Jeff Kent | 18.1% | 6th | 14.5% | +3.6% |
| Scott Rolen | 17.2% | 2nd | 10.2% | +7.0% |
| Billy Wagner | 16.7% | 4th | 11.1% | +5.6% |
| Todd Helton | 16.5% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Gary Sheffield | 13.6% | 5th | 11.1% | +2.5% |
| Andy Pettitte | 9.9% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Sammy Sosa | 8.5% | 7th | 7.8% | +0.7% |
| Andruw Jones | 7.5% | 2nd | 7.3% | +0.2% |
| Michael Young | 2.1% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Roy Oswalt | 1.2% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Lance Berkman | 1.2% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Miguel Tejada | 0.9% | 1st | NA | NA |
| Placido Polanco | 0.5% | 1st | NA | NA |
| *YOB = year on ballot |
Rivera, Halladay, Martinez and Mussina will join Lee Smith and Harold Baines in the Hall of Fame Class of 2019. Smith and Baines were elected to the Hall by the Today’s Game Committee in December.
On the bottom of the list, Michael Young, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Miguel Tejada and Placido Polanco, by receiving less than 5% of the vote, will all be removed from subsequent BBWAA ballots.
Anyway, here are some thoughts on the newly minted Hall of Famers and some of the others who fell short of a Cooperstown plaque.
Mariano Rivera: received 100% of the vote
Rivera, who accumulated a MLB-record 652 saves in 19 seasons with the Yankees, was the easiest selection for the writers. He is, by eye test or statistics, easily the best relief pitcher in the history of baseball. In addition, with a 8-1 record, 42 saves and 0.70 ERA in postseason baseball, Rivera had more impact on his teams’ winning championships (five of them) than any other player in the LCS era (since 1969).
Here is the list of the players with the highest Hall of Fame voting percentages in the history of the BBWAA voting, with Rivera standing at the top with a vote percentage that can never be surpassed:
| Year | Player | "Yes" | "No" | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Mariano Rivera | 425 | 0 | 100% |
| 2016 | Ken Griffey Jr. | 437 | 3 | 99.3% |
| 1992 | Tom Seaver | 425 | 5 | 98.8% |
| 1999 | Nolan Ryan | 491 | 6 | 98.8% |
| 1999 | George Brett | 488 | 9 | 98.2% |
| 2007 | Cal Ripken Jr. | 537 | 8 | 98.5% |
| 1936 | Ty Cobb | 222 | 4 | 98.2% |
| 1982 | Hank Aaron | 406 | 9 | 97.8% |
| 2007 | Tony Gwynn | 532 | 13 | 97.6% |
| 2015 | Randy Johnson | 534 | 15 | 97.3% |
| 2014 | Greg Maddux | 555 | 16 | 97.2% |
| 2018 | Chipper Jones | 410 | 12 | 97.2% |
As Tom Verducci said, Mariano Rivera is “baseball royalty.” There is no person I can think of who is more deserving of the honor of being the first unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame. And, as Bob Costas said, Rivera’s greatness was such that not one “curmudgeon” out of 425 writers could bring themselves to vote against him.
Take a look at the reaction of Mariano and his family when he was informed about his induction to the Hall and the unanimous vote.
Roy Halladay: 85.4%
On the mound, Roy “Doc” Halladay was a peak performer, the dominant starting pitcher in the game from 2002-2011. Although he finished with just 203 wins due to shoulder woes shortening his career, Halladay’s park-and-era-adjusted ERA+ (131) is the 7th best in the last 100 years for all pitchers with at least 2,500 innings pitched.
It will be a wonderful and yet bittersweet moment this July when Halladay’s plaque is unveiled in Cooperstown. The two-time Cy Young Award winner perished on November 7, 2017 in a crash of a plane he was piloting just 1/4 mile off the coast of New Port Richey on Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Halladay will be the 6th player chosen by the writers of the BBWAA to be elected posthumously, the first since 1954.
- Rabbit Maranville (inducted 1954) (died Jan 5, 1954)
- Harry Heilmann (inducted 1952) (died July 9, 1951)
- Herb Pennock (inducted 1948) (died Jan. 30, 1948)
- Willie Keeler (inducted 1939) (died Jan. 1, 1923)
- Christy Mathewson (inducted 1936) (died Oct. 7, 1925)
With Halladay’s first-ballot induction, it’s the first time since the very first ever Hall of Fame vote (1936) that a first-ballot inductee will be enshrined posthumously.
Edgar Martinez: 85.4%
Martinez, a brilliant right-handed hitter who was an on-base% and doubles machine, looked like he had no chance at the Hall of Fame just four years ago, when he received 27% of the BBWAA vote. In recent years, in part helped by a passionate grass-roots movement among Mariners fans, the writers have rallied to Edgar’s cause.
His vote percentage, on a year-by-year basis, jumped from 27% in 2015 to 43% to 59% to 70% and finally to 85.4% this year.
As noted previously, Edgar is just the sixth player to be inducted to the Hall in his final year of eligibility. The rules have changed over the years. From 1962 to 2014, players became ineligible after having been retired for 20 years. That timeline was reduced in 2014 to 15 years, which is why this was Edgar’s final year of eligibility after just 10 years on the ballot. (Players become eligible for BBWAA consideration five years after retirement).
Anyway, there have only been eight players to receive 70% of the vote or more in their final year of eligibility. The two who fell shy of 75% were all subsequently inducted to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee.
| Year | Player | YOB | Vote % | Prev Yr. | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Edgar Martinez | 10th | 85.4% | 70.4% | +15.0% |
| 2017 | Tim Raines | 10th | 86.0% | 69.8% | +17.2% |
| 2009 | Jim Rice | 15th | 76.4% | 72.2% | +4.2% |
| 1985 | *Nellie Fox | 15th | 74.7% | 61.0% | +13.7% |
| 1994 | *Orlando Cepeda | 15th | 73.5% | 59.6% | +13.9% |
| 1975 | Ralph Kiner | 13th | 75.4% | 58.9% | +16.5% |
| 1968 | Joe Medwick | 9th | 84.8% | 72.6% | +12.2% |
| 1967 | **Red Ruffing | 15th | 72.6% | 68.9% | +2.7% |
| *Subsequently Elected by Veterans Committee | |||||
| **Ruffing: elected in run-off election v Joe Medwick |
Mike Mussina: 76.7%
Mike Mussina was one of those Hall of Famers that was an acquired taste for most of the writers. He didn’t win 20 games in a season until his final campaign, he never won a Cy Young Award and his career ERA was an unsightly 3.68.
As time passed, more writers appreciated that his high ERA, pitching in the A.L. East and in the height of the PED era, was actually quite excellent, a park-adjusted ERA+ of 123 (which is 23% above average). More writers noticed that Moose’s career WAR of 82.9 was higher than any pitcher not enshrined in Cooperstown except for Roger Clemens.
Anyway, when he joined a crowded ballot in 2014, Mussina got just 20.3% of the vote. He suffered in comparison to Clemens and first-ballot inductees Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. The next year, Moose crept up to 24.6% of the vote but again was overshadowed by first-ballot choices Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz. With no superior starting pitchers joining subsequent ballots, Mussina stopped getting squeezed off the writers’ 10-man slates, and his vote share started to rise, culminating with his 76.7% tally this year.
Mussina becomes just the 8th player in the last 50 years to zoom from under to 65% to over 75% and into Cooperstown from one year to the next.
| Year | Last 50 Years | Vote% | Prev. Yr. | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Mike Mussina | 76.7% | 63.5% | +13.2% |
| 2011 | Barry Larkin | 86.4% | 62.1% | +24.3% |
| 2005 | Ryne Sandberg | 76.2% | 61.1% | +15.1% |
| 2000 | Tony Perez | 77.2% | 60.8% | +16.4% |
| 1984 | Don Drysdale | 78.4% | 64.7% | +13.7% |
| 1978 | Eddie Mathews | 79.4% | 62.4% | +17.0% |
| 1976 | Bob Lemon | 78.6% | 64.4% | +14.2% |
| 1970 | Lou Boudreau | 77.3% | 64.1% | +13.2% |
Curt Schilling: 60.9%
After a couple of years in Twitter-fueled punishment, Schilling is slowly making his way back up the ballot. With Mussina and Halladay getting inducted this year, Schilling will now be the best starting pitcher on the ballot not named Roger Clemens for his final three years of eligibility. Andy Pettitte, eligible for the Hall for the first time this year, got just 9.9% of the vote, a full 51 points below Schilling’s tally.
The best three starting pitchers to hit the ballot in the next three years are Cliff Lee (2020), Tim Hudson (2021) and Mark Buehrle (2011). All three had fine careers but are not remotely in the same class as Schilling.
The ace starter for Philadelphia, Arizona and Boston has become a controversial figure in recent years due to his political views and a particularly offensive Tweet. It’s clear to me that the writers are starting to forget about that and focus again on his excellence in both the regular season and his place in history as the best postseason starting pitcher in the last 50 seasons.
As we saw with the preceding graphic, it’s a fairly rare feat for a player to zoom up from under 65% to over 75% in one voting cycle but, with a weaker 2020 ballot, Schilling certainly could do it. If he doesn’t make it in 2020, he should cross the line in 2021.
Roger Clemens (59.5%) and Barry Bonds (59.1%)
After two years of big gains, this is the second consecutive modest vote increase for Bonds and Clemens. Each legend, tarnished by Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), only has three more years on the BBWAA ballot.
| Year | # of ballots | Bonds | Votes | Clemens | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 569 | 36.2% | 206 | 37.6% | 214 | |
| 2014 | 571 | 34.7% | 198 | 35.4% | 202 | |
| 2015 | 549 | 36.8% | 202 | 37.5% | 206 | |
| 2016 | 440 | 44.3% | 195 | 45.2% | 199 | |
| 2017 | 442 | 53.8% | 238 | 54.1% | 239 | |
| 2018 | 422 | 56.4% | 238 | 57.3% | 242 | |
| 2019 | 425 | 59.1% | 251 | 59.5% | 253 |
If Bonds and Clemens each keep creeping up their vote share by only 2-to-3% per year, they’re going to fall short of 75% in their 10th and final years of eligibility in 2022. There are two wild card factors, however, that could boost their numbers.
- The ballot is much less clogged in the next two years, with Derek Jeter the only obvious Hall of Famer becoming eligible in 2020 and no obvious candidates in 2021.
- Perhaps some writers are simply making Bonds and Clemens sweat all the way until their 10th and final years as punishment for their misdeeds.
Still, today was a bad day for the Cooperstown prognosis for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. I’d say right now it’s less than 50-50 that they make it into Cooperstown but it’s certainly still possible.
Larry Walker: 54.6%
Walker is trying to become the next Edgar Martinez, a player who skyrockets from the 20’s to over 75% of the vote in a short period of time. The difference is that Walker’s upward path is much steeper. Edgar jumped from 27% (in Year 6) to 43% (in Year 7).
Walker, in his 6th year, received just 15.5% of the vote. Two years ago (in 2017, his 7th year), he was at just 22%. The path from 22% to over 75% in just three voting cycles is much more difficult than from 43% to over 75%.
Still, although it hasn’t happened in a long time, there are some precedents for a player vaulting from from under 55% to over 75% of the vote. Given the less-clogged ballot coming up in 2020, it’s certainly possible that Walker makes the leap.
The last player to make a jump like the one Walker needs was Luke Appling. In 1962, the longtime White Sox shortstop received 30% of the vote. Two years later (the BBWAA voted in even years only in the early 60’s), Appling zoomed up to 70.6%. Another quirk of those years was that, if nobody got over 75%, there would be a runoff. Appling won the runoff election 94.5% to 91.5% over Red Ruffing.
In the earlier history of the BBWAA vote, there are actually 7 more examples of a player pole-vaulting from under 55% to over 75%.
- Joe Cronin: inducted into the Hall in 1956 after getting 53.8% in 1955
- Herb Pennock: inducted into the Hall in 1948 after getting 53.4% in 1947
- Frankie Frisch: inducted into the Hall in 1947 after getting 51.5% in 1946
- Carl Hubbell: inducted into the Hall in 1947 after getting 50% in 1946
- Mickey Cochrane: inducted into the Hall in 1947 after getting 39.6% in 1946
- Lefty Grove: inducted into the Hall in 1947 after getting 35.1% in 1946
- Cy Young: inducted into the Hall in 1937 after getting 49.1% in 1937
In case you’re wondering why so many players zoomed up from 1946 to 1947, it’s because a bunch of stars from the early part of the century were removed from the 1947 ballot and inducted instead by the Old-Timers Committee. The math got easier for the best of the rest.
A more recent precedent in Walker’s favor was revealed by Jayson Stark on the MLB Network “postgame” show. Stark noted that Barry Larkin got 83 more votes in 2011 than he received in 2010 and then got 134 more votes in 2012 to easily make the Hall at 86.4%. Walker picked up a whopping 88 more votes this year than he received in 2018. If he duplicates that improvement, he’ll make it into the Hall.
A tough road, but doable.
Omar Vizquel: 42.8%
Of the 15 players who returned from the 2018 ballot, Vizquel’s increase from 37.0% to 42.8% represented the 7th biggest increase. With the four-member Class of 2018, there was quite a bit of space on many writers’ ballots to check new names.
Historically speaking, a player with 42.8% after two years on the ballot is much more likely than not to eventually be inducted by the BBWAA so the odds are in Omar’s favor. What may hold him back, however, is the same thing that held Jack Morris back in his final years on the ballot. I’m talking about his relatively low 45.6 career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).
Vizquel will have to break through the sabermetric wall that doesn’t consider him a worthy Hall of Famer. His will be one of the more interesting cases to follow in the upcoming voting cycles.
Fred McGriff: 39.6%
In this, his 10th and final year on the ballot, the Crime Dog finally got some respect, getting 16.6% more voting share than he received in 2018. Finishing just a couple of votes shy of 40% was by far McGriff’s best performance on the ballot.
In the last 40 years, there have been 14 players before McGriff who tallied more than 30% of the vote in their final year on the ballot. 10 out of those 14 are now in the Hall of Fame via various versions of the Veterans Committee, including Morris, Alan Trammell and Lee Smith in the past two voting cycles.
| Year | Player | YOB | Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Fred McGriff | 10th | 39.8% |
| 2017 | *Lee Smith | 15th | 34.2% |
| 2016 | *Alan Trammell | 15th | 40.9% |
| 2014 | *Jack Morris | 15th | 61.5% |
| 2009 | Tommy John | 15th | 31.7% |
| 1998 | *Ron Santo | 15th | 43.1% |
| 1996 | Tony Oliva | 15th | 36.2% |
| 1994 | *Orlando Cepeda | 15th | 73.5% |
| 1992 | *Bill Mazeroski | 15th | 42.3% |
| 1991 | *Jim Bunning | 15th | 63.7% |
| 1988 | Roger Maris | 15th | 43.1% |
| 1985 | *Nellie Fox | 15th | 74.7% |
| 1983 | Gil Hodges | 15th | 63.4% |
| 1983 | *Red Schoendienst | 15th | 39.0% |
| 1982 | *Richie Ashburn | 15th | 30.4% |
| *Subsequently elected by Veterans Committee |
Given the fact that McGriff has a narrative of being a “victim” of the PED era, it’s very likely that the Today’s Game Committee of 2022 will look favorably upon his candidacy. Frankly, I’d be stunned if he doesn’t have his day in Cooperstown three years from now.
Manny Ramirez: 22.8%
As we’ve seen with the Bonds and Clemens votes, there seems to be a calcification with how the BBWAA voters view players who are linked to PEDs. As I wrote about earlier this month, there are four types of voters when it comes to PEDs. Manny clearly falls into the camp of voters who don’t vote for players who failed tests after the MLB drug testing regime was put into place.
At this point, I can’t envision anything that would turn Ramirez from a player who perennially gets in the low 20’s of the vote into a Hall of Famer.
Jeff Kent: 18.1%
Although Jeff Kent has only 4 years left on the ballot, I do not consider his case fruitless. 18.1% is the highest vote total he’s received but I look at his low total as a byproduct of the “rule of 10” that limits voters to choosing only 10 players on their ballots.
The ballot “clog” is finally easing. If he was the 11th or 12th choice for a lot of writers in 2019, he’ll be the 9th or 10th in 2020. I predict a big jump in the next few years and an outside chance that he might still make it into Cooperstown.
However, if he doesn’t jump up to over 30% in 2020 then we can officially call his case a lost cause.
Scott Rolen: 17.2%
The same “rule of 10” math that has applied to Kent in his first 6 years on the ballot has also been relevant for Scott Rolen in his first 2 years. The difference is that Rolen has a lot more time. He’s a sabermetric favorite (70.2 career WAR) and, in my opinion, by far the most likely of the “under 20%” crew to eventually make the Hall of Fame. I predict that the Raines-Martinez-Walker big-gainer baton will be passed on to Rolen.
Billy Wagner: 16.7%
After three consecutive years of earning between 10% to 11% of the vote, Billy Wagner finally made a little headway. I’m not sure if Wagner’s bump was a result of Lee Smith’s election into the Hall of Fame by the Today’s Game Committee or just his share of the votes freed up by the 4-man Class of 2019 but it’s the first positive sign for Billy the Kid’s potential Hall of Fame candidacy.
With Rivera and Smith getting Cooperstown plaques this summer, one year after Trevor Hoffman’s induction, that means that three relief pitchers will have been elected in the last two years. Will voters feel that Wagner’s superior rate stats merit his inclusion as well or will he be continue to be viewed merely as a one-inning wonder?
Todd Helton: 16.5%
Considering that he has a similar Hall of Fame profile to his longtime Colorado Rockies teammate Larry Walker, Helton’s initial Hall of Fame salvo of 16.5% is a little bit disappointing. I’m not sure how much he suffered from the “rule of 10” and how much he was hurt by relatively low counting stats (369 HR, 2,519 Hits) for a Coors Field first baseman.
I think he deserves better but, as it will be with Kent, Rolen, and Wagner, Helton will need to make big gains in 2020 if he’s going to be a viable Hall of Fame candidate in the future.
Gary Sheffield: 13.6%
Gary Sheffield has the same problem as Jeff Kent but also has a link to PEDs and the Mitchell Report. Because he immediately admitted using steroids and claimed to have used them without knowing what he was taking, I think he deserves more respect. However, with five consecutive low vote totals, I can’t see any path forward for him to Cooperstown.
Andy Pettitte: 9.9%
Despite his own presence in the Mitchell Report, I’m surprised Pettitte did so poorly in his first time on the ballot. Still, it’s easy to explain a “no” vote for the longtime pitcher for the Yankees and Houston Astros. As I explained recently, Pettitte was consistently very good but rarely great.
Sammy Sosa: 8.5%
Yes, I know Sosa hit 609 career home runs and over 60 blasts three different times but it’s obvious to most writers that his career was inauthentic. If it’s a question mark whether or not Bonds and Clemens will get into the Hall of Fame with only three years of eligibility left, it’s an absolute certainty that Sosa won’t get anywhere close.
Anybody who votes for Sammy Sosa is wasting their vote.
Andruw Jones: 7.5%
Jones, a 10-time Gold Glove center fielder for the Atlanta Braves, has now had two consecutive vote totals of under 8%. Regardless of the extra space that will be coming up on the next couple of ballots, when you’re last among the returning candidates, that does not bode well.
Some people think he’s the best defensive center fielder of all time. I consider that something that is unknowable but I do know that he was a completely different player in the last five years of his career and not in a good way.
Thanks so much for all of who who have enjoyed reading Cooperstown Cred. In the upcoming months, I’ll spend more time looking at the future candidacies of the active players in MLB. In addition, I’ll offer some tributes to the existing members of the Hall.
Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.