Sammy Sosa Ends his BBWAA Balloting Far Away from Cooperstown

For five years (1998-2002), Sammy Sosa was one of baseball’s greatest superstars. His Home Run Chase with Mark McGwire in 1998 captivated the nation’s imagination and aided in the sport’s continued healing from the ’94 strike that canceled the World Series. Both players eclipsed the single-season home run mark of 61 (by Roger Maris in 1961). Sosa wound up hitting more than 61 home runs in two of the three seasons that followed. Slammin’ Sammy finished his career with 609 homers and remains the only player in Major League Baseball history to eclipse the 60 HR mark three times. Needless to say, Sammy Sosa was going to eventually make the Hall of Fame…

Until, of course, the infamous hearing in Congress about the use of Performance Enhancing Drugs in baseball in March 2005, a hearing that permanently damaged the reputations of McGwire, Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro. Sosa and Palmeiro both denied ever using PEDs while McGwire repeatedly and weakly said that he did not want to look “at the past.” At the time, the trio (along with Barry Bonds, who was not at the hearing) were 4 members of an exclusive club of just 20 men, players who had hit 500 or more home runs. All of the other 16 players who had 500 or more HR as of the end of the 2004 season are in the Hall of Fame.

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While Bonds (and Roger Clemens) have enjoyed the voting support of more than 50% of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) who vote for the Hall of Fame, neither McGwire, Sosa nor Palmeiro have gotten as much as 25% in a vote that requires 75% for a plaque in the great museum in Cooperstown, New York.

McGwire lasted for 10 years on the BBWAA ballot, peaking at 23.7% of the vote in 2010. Palmeiro hit the ballot in 2010 and got just 4.4% of the vote in 2013, ending his eligibility for future ballots.

Sosa’s first year on the Hall of Fame ballot occurred in the same year as Palmeiro’s last (2013): Sosa got 12.5% of the vote and “peaked” this past January at 17.0%. The 2022 ballot is the last that will feature Sosa’s name and, based on the early returns from Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, which shows him polling at 24.8%, he has absolutely no chance to be elected to the Hall by the BBWAA.

The Anonymous Survey Drug Tests in 2003

Since the hearing in Congress, McGwire has admitted using PEDs. Palmeiro was suspended for failing a drug test in 2005, his final MLB season. Sosa has not admitted using PEDs and was never suspended for using them. He was not named in the Mitchell Report on Steroids. He was, however, named in what was supposed to be an anonymous “survey test” in 2003. The results of these survey tests were used as a part of the MLB Players Union’s agreement to implement the drug testing protocol with penalties that ensnared Palmeiro in ’05.

The New York Times reported, in 2009, that Sosa was among the 104 players who tested positive in 2003. Although the results of those tests were supposed to be destroyed, they weren’t and, six years later, the names were leaked. This is the only “smoking gun” that implicates Sammy Sosa in the use of steroids. Clearly, for all of the BBWAA writers who don’t check Sosa’s name on their ballots, this is all the proof they need.

There is a problem, however. Among the other 103 players named in this test is David Ortiz. Big Papi is one of the greatest heroes in the history of baseball’s postseason and is currently making his debut on the BBWAA. Ortiz is a near certainty to be elected to the Hall of Fame and might be a first-ballot selection next month (he’s currently polling at 81.9% on Thibodaux’s tracker).

As Ortiz was wrapping up his final MLB campaign, Commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the 2003 tests by claiming that there were at least 10 false positives in the testing and that it was “unfair” for Ortiz’s legacy to be tarnished by it. If the test isn’t good enough to tarnish the legacy of Ortiz, why is it good enough to tarnish Sosa’s legacy? I’ll discuss that point at the end of this piece.

Cooperstown Cred: Sammy Sosa (RF)

10th Year on the BBWAA Ballot (received 17.0% of the vote in 2020)

• Rangers (1989), White Sox (1989-91), Cubs (1992-2004), Orioles (2005), Rangers (2007)
• Career: 609 HR, 1,667 RBI, 2,408 Hits, .273 BA, .344 OBP, .534 SLG
• Career: 128 OPS+, 58.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Only player in baseball history to hit 60+ HR in 3 different seasons
• 609 career HR is 9th most in MLB history
• 7-time All-Star
• 6-time Silver Slugger
• 1998 N.L. MVP: .308 BA, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 134 Runs, 160 OPS+, 6.5 WAR
• 2nd in 2001 N.L. MVP vote: .328 BA, 64 HR, 160 RBI, 146 Runs, 203 OPS+, 10.3 WAR

(cover photo: Chicago Tribune/Phil Velasquez)

This piece was originally posted on January 1, 2020. It has been updated in advance of the 2022 vote.

Sammy Sosa Career Highlights

Samuel Peralta Sosa was born on November 12, 1968, in Consuelo in the Dominican Republic. His father, who drove a tractor clearing sugar-cane fields, died of a cerebral hemorrhage when Sammy was just six years old. He was one of seven children who all slept in a single room. When Sammy was 13, his mother remarried and moved the family to San Pedro de Macoris. Teenage Sammy wanted to be a boxer but his mother made him promise to give it up, which led to his focus on baseball.

Sosa was signed as an international free agent at the age of 16 by the Texas Rangers. He made his professional debut in 1986 at the age of 17, looking nothing like his future self at a lithe 165 pounds.

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A little over three years later, Sosa made his Major League Baseball debut, on June 16, 1989. The right-handed hitting Sosa went 2 for 4 in his first MLB game and, in his 6th, hit his first career MLB home run off none other than Roger Clemens, a solo shot at Fenway Park over the Green Monster. Sosa played mostly in center field and left field for Texas with All-Star Ruben Sierra established in right.

After a 1 for 24 slump in July, Sosa was sent back to the minor leagues. Less than ten days later, he was traded to the Chicago White Sox in a deal that sent Hall of Famer Harold Baines to the Rangers.

Chicago White Sox (1989-91)

Sammy Sosa spent a couple of weeks at the Chisox AAA affiliate in Vancouver before getting the call back to the majors in late August. Sosa played in 33 games in late August and September for the White Sox, hitting .273 with a respectable 118 OPS+.

At the age of 21, Sosa was a full-time player on Chicago’s south side in 1990, playing 153 games, all but one in right field. It was a mediocre first full campaign for young Sammy; he hit .233 with 15 HR, 70 RBI, and a below league average 92 OPS+. He struck out 150 times while drawing just 33 walks. At the time, Sosa was more of a speed player than a power player; he stole 32 bases and hit 10 triples. Those 32 steals were, however, more than canceled out by 16 times caught stealing. Defensively, Sosa led the A.L. in putouts but also in errors.

In 1991, things got worse for Sosa, despite a spectacular Opening Day start in which he went 3 for 4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI. He would hit only .196 for the rest of the season. So, thanks to an overall batting average of .203 and a summer demotion to the minors, Sosa played in just 116 games. Despite a woeful 59 OPS+, Sosa’s WAR (0.6) was a tick better than his 0.5 in 1990 thanks to superb defensive metrics (which, of course, didn’t exist at the time).

In late March 1992, in one of the worst deals in White Sox history, the team gave up on Sammy Sosa, dealing him across town to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for 32-year old slugger George Bell, who would only play two more years in Major League Baseball.

Early Years with the Chicago Cubs (1992-97)

Sosa was excited about the trade to the Cubs. With the White Sox, he was ticketed for a platoon; with the Cubs, he was inserted into the lineup immediately as the starting center fielder (Hall of Famer Andre Dawson was entrenched in right). Now 23 years old, Sosa was listed at 185 pounds when he debuted with the Cubs. He got off to a slow start on Chicago’s North side, hitting just .206 in his first 26 games with no home runs and just 3 RBI. Things got a little better from there but he was still sitting at .232 with 1 home run after 46 games. You would have gotten quite astronomical odds at the time that this player would eventually hit over 600 career home runs.

Thanks to two broken bones (wrist and ankle), Sosa finished the 1992 season with only 67 games played. He finished with a .260 average along with 8 HR and 25 RBI. All told, in his first four MLB seasons, Sosa hit .234 with 37 HR, 141 RBI, and an 85 OPS+ in 1,411 plate appearances. Future Hall of Famer? No way.

Dawson was no longer with the Cubs in 1993 so Sosa moved to right field. Offensively, the talented young Dominican finally had a breakout campaign. He hit .261 with 33 HR, 93 RBI, 36 SB, and a 112 OPS+. With over 30 dingers and 30 steals, he became just the 10th member of the 30-30 club. Sosa clearly was pleased with his entrance into the 30-30 club; he changed his license plate to “SS 30 30” and commissioned what Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci called a “Liberace-style accessory, a gold pendant approximately the size of a manhole cover, hung from a chain that seemed fashioned from a suspension-bridge cable.” The bauble, of course, contained the numbers 30-30 and was ornamented with diamonds.

As it would be throughout his career, Sosa’s strikeout-to-walk ratio was still a problem (135 K and 38 BB). Still, with solid defensive metrics, Sosa was worth (by today’s numbers) a solid 4.5 WAR after posting just a 1.3 WAR in the previous four campaigns combined.

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Sosa improved in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign, hitting .300 on the nose with 25 HR, 70 RBI, and 22 SB. He posted a 127 OPS+ and 3.8 WAR in 105 games.

In 1995, at the age of 26, Sosa became an All-Star for the first time. He played all 144 games in another season shortened by the players’ strike, establishing career bests with 36 HR, 119 RBI, and 34 SB, despite his average falling to .268. Sosa also led all N.L. right fielders in putouts and assists, and also in “Total Zone Runs” or Rfield (Baseball-Reference’s WAR-calculating metric which measures how many runs above average a player was defensively). Sosa, who was credited with 23 runs defensively, finished 8th in the MVP voting and won his first Silver Slugger Award.

Sosa signed a 3-year, $16 million contract with the Cubs in January 1996 and bulked up to 200 pounds. Although he missed the final six weeks of the season with a broken hand, Sosa hit 40 HR with 100 RBI and a 127 OPS+, while also finishing second among N.L. right-fielders with 27 runs above average (Rfield).

Although fully healthy in 1997 (he played in 162 games), Sosa regressed a bit. At the plate, Sosa hit just .251 with a .300 OBP (both lows in a Cubs uniform); he hit 36 HR with 119 RBI but did it in 38 more games than he played in ’96. Despite the gaudy HR/RBI totals, Sosa’s OPS+ was a below-average 99. Additionally, Sosa struck out 174 times, as opposed to 45 walks. Defensively, Sosa was still 17 runs above average, best for N.L. right fielders.

In the middle of the 1997 season (late June), the Cubs signed Sosa to a new deal, one worth $42 million over four years, which made him the third highest-paid player in baseball based on annual salary, behind Barry Bonds and Albert Belle. With his new deal, Sosa rewarded himself with a 60-foot yacht dubbed “Sammy Jr.”

Key Numbers from Sammy’s first 9 Seasons

At the end of the 1997 season, Sammy Sosa had 207 HR, 642 RBI, and a middling OPS+ of 107. His career WAR was a respectable 22.4. The huge irony is that, according to the Baseball-Reference breakdown of the components of WAR (batting, base running, fielding, DP avoidance), Sosa was over five times more valuable with the glove than with the bat for the first 9 seasons of his MLB career.

By “Total Zone Runs” or Rfield, Sosa was the best defensive right fielder in the National League in 1995, ’96, and ’97, the 3rd best in ’93 and 2nd best in ’94. Using more traditional metrics, Sosa led N.L. right fielders in assists in 1995 and ’97 and was second in ’96. According to TZR or Rfield, Sosa was by far the best defensive player in all of Major League Baseball:

Rfield leaders (1993-97):

1. Sammy Sosa (99.0)
2. Ken Griffey Jr. (80.6)
3. Mark Lemke (67.3)
4. Ivan Rodriguez (66.0)
5. Kenny Lofton (62.4)

Not all of Sosa’s defensive numbers were this rosy. He also committed 31 errors between 1995-97, the most among Senior Circuit right fielders. Clearly, for that reason and the “eye test,” Sosa was not viewed as a premier defensive player. No Gold Gloves were conferred to him.

In his profile written the following June, SI‘s Verducci referred to the “notoriously undisciplined Sosa” approaching his “defensive responsibilities as if he thought ‘cutoff man’ was a John Bobbitt reference. (Google that name, my younger readers, if you don’t get the reference. Come to think of it, if you’re under 14, don’t Google that name).

Sammy Sosa’s Magical 1998 Campaign

In the middle of the 1997 season, the Cubs hired Jeff Pentland to be their new hitting coach. Pentland’s pedigree was the complete opposite of Sammy Sosa’s hitting coach from 1992-96, Hall of Famer Billy Williams. Pentland never made the majors, spending three years in the minor leagues (1969-71) in the San Diego Padres organization. Pentland helped refine Sosa’s toe-tap into a timing device, convinced him to hit the ball to the opposite field when the pitch received dictated it, and encouraged him to be more patient at the plate.

Sosa was a new man in 1998 even if it took some time for him to hit his power stride. In his first 49 games, he had a slash line of a .333 BA/.409 OBP/.521 SLG with 9 home runs and 31 RBI. Ironically, in a season in which he would finish with 66 HR and 158 RBI, Sosa was on pace for 30 dingers and 103 ribbies through those 49 games. In the meantime, Mark McGwire was being closely followed as a possible candidate to surpass 60 taters. Between Oakland and St. Louis, McGwire had hit 58 HR in 1997, which was tied for the 4th highest total in MLB history. Big Mac homered in his first 4 games of 1998 and had 27 by the end of May.

Starting on May 25th, Sosa started to insert himself into the conversation by going on a home run tear for the ages. In 21 games, Sammy slammed 20 homers while maintaining that .333 BA. For the month of June, Sosa had 20 taters, by far the most HR in a calendar month in baseball history. Of course, Sosa made his second All-Star team thanks to his tear in June, although he did not play because of a sore left shoulder.

After the break, Sosa resumed his home run tear, going deep in the first two games of the second half of the season. He reached 40 HR and 100 RBI by July 27th, his 106th game of the season in a game in which slammed his first grand slam. By the end of the month, Sammy had 42 home runs, just three fewer than McGwire. By August 23rd, Sosa had reached 50 home runs for the season. At the end of August, both he and Big Mac had 55 taters each. One of baseball’s hallowed records, Roger Maris’ 61 home runs in 1961, was legitimately in reach of both sluggers; the nation reveled in the big home run chase.

The Chase for 62

With two home runs in each of the first two games in September, it took McGwire only 6 contests to reach the magic number of 61, blasting it against the Cubs in St. Louis with Sosa watching from right field. The next, with the Cubs still in town, McGwire hit a seed down the left field line that cleared the fence for his 62nd home run of the season. Sosa came in all the way from right field to the home plate area to give Big Mac a big hug. It was a classic display of sportsmanship.

Just four days after McGwire swatted his record-setting 62nd home run, on a Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field, Sosa slammed his 60th of the season, becoming just the fourth player to reach the magic number of 60 (Babe Ruth, of course, was the first, Maris the second). With a four-game series in San Diego looming starting on Monday, Sosa did not force the loyal Cubs fans to watch history on TV. He swatted home run #61 in the 5th inning on Sunday, a titanic blast well over the left field bleachers. In his last at bat of the homestand, in the bottom of the 9th inning, Sammy hit #62 to deep left-center field.

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With the drama over about whether either player would break Maris’ single-season record, the only question was who would finish the season as the home run champion. McGwire hit #63 on Tuesday, September 15th; Sosa matched him with a grand slam in San Diego the next day. Two days later, Big Mac re-took the sole tater lead with his 64th blast of the season, adding #65 the day after that, on September 20th. Three days later, on the 23rd in Milwaukee, Sosa belted an opposite-field solo shot for his 64th and a bomb to straight-away center field to tie McGwire with #65. Sosa’s 11th multi-homer game in 1998 tied Hank Greenberg’s all-time MLB record.

Two days later, in the Cubs’ next game in Houston, Sosa briefly took the home run lead with a blast to left field into the third deck at the Astrodome. McGwire would also hit his 66th that night. Big Mac then proceeded to hit two home runs in each of the Redbirds’ final two games to finish the season with 70. Sosa did not homer in any of Chicago’s last three games, including a one-game playoff victory against Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants to determine the N.L. Wild Card.

Playoffs and Accolades

Slammin’ Sammy was in the playoffs for the first time in his career, in the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves and their three ace starters (John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux). The future Hall of Famers and the Braves’ bullpen got the best of Sosa, holding him to a .182 average with no RBI. The Braves swept the series in three games.

Still, despite the lackluster finish to the season, it was one for the ages for Sammy Sosa. Along with his 66 HR, Sosa led the league in both RBI (with 158) and runs scored (134). Although he led the majors with 171 strikeouts, he set career bests with 198 hits, 73 walks, and his entire slash line (.308/.377/.647). Pentland’s encouragement of Sosa to go the other way was reflected in 16 opposite-field home runs and 15 to center field.

Sosa easily won the N.L. MVP Award even though his 160 OPS+ was only 4th best in the league (behind McGwire, Bonds, and John Olerud) and his 6.5 WAR was tied for 9th in the league. Of course, OPS+ and WAR were statistics yet to be invented.

For their historic home run chase, McGwire and Sosa were also honored as co-Sportsmen of the Year by Sports Illustrated. Six and half years later, McGwire and Sosa were testifying in front of Congress about their alleged use of Performance Enhancing Drugs, which the vast majority of people now credit for fueling each player’s drive towards the magical number of 62.

Sammy Sosa’s Encore

In 1999, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire provided an encore to their great home run chase of 1998 by each surpassing 61 long balls for the second year in a row. The Cardinals’ first baseman was the home run champ once again, swatting 65 homers (with 147 RBI) to Sosa’s 63 (with 141 RBI). Sosa’s season didn’t quite measure up to 1998 but was still excellent: he slashed .288/.367/.635 (151 OPS+).

In what was an odd vote at the time, the writers only placed McGwire 5th and Sosa 9th in the MVP vote. The most obvious explanation is that there was still (at the time) a strong bias towards players on winning teams. McGwire’s Cardinals won only 75 games in ’99 while Sosa’s Cubs plummeted to just 67 wins. In the meantime, Cincinnati’s Greg Vaughn (.245 BA, 45 HR, 118 RBI) finished 4th in the voting, thanks to his team’s 96 wins. (Incidentally, the N.L. MVP was Chipper Jones, a deserving winner).

Sosa dropped to a mere 50 home runs (with 138 RBI) in 2000 but, with injuries limiting McGwire to 89 games and 32 HR, he was the league’s home run leader for the first time. Overall, Sosa’s 2000 campaign was better than in 1999; he set then-career highs with a .320 BA and .406 OBP, thanks to 91 walks. Sosa was again 9th in the MVP vote.

2001: Sammy’s Best Season

By any metric, Sammy Sosa had his best season at the age of 32 in 2001. His entire slash line (.328/.437/.737) was the best of his career, resulting in a 201 OPS+. Along the way, Sosa swatted 64 home runs (his third time over 60) and also established career bests in RBI (160) and Runs (146), both of which were best in the majors. His WAR of 10.3 far surpassed his previous career-high of 6.5 in 1998. It was only Barry Bonds and his ridiculous 73 HR, 259 OPS+, and 11.9 WAR that prevented Sosa from earning his 2nd MVP trophy.

Sosa was scalding hot down the stretch of 2001, slashing .439/.529/1.018 with 10 HR in the Cubs’ final 16 games. On September 27th, the Cubs played their first game at Wrigley Field following the September 11th terrorist attacks. In an iconic image, the Dominican-born Sosa carried a small American flag into right field to start the game and circled the field to the delight of the patriotic crowd. Subsequently, in the bottom of the first inning, Sosa hit his 59th home run of the season and picked up the flag from Billy Williams (who was coaching first base), circling the bases with it.

Slammin’ Sammy subsequently hit home runs 60 through 64 in the team’s final 6 games. Home run #60 gave him the honor of being the first player ever to hit the mark three times. His 64th tater occurred in his final at-bat of the season.

2002-04: Sosa’s Final Three Years in Chicago

Sosa followed up his brilliant 2001 campaign with one more season that was worthy of MVP consideration but it was the beginning of what would become a precipitous decline. He led the N.L. with 49 home runs and 122 runs scored but his RBI total dipped to 108. Still, his 103 walks were good enough for a .399 OBP and a 160 OPS+ (3rd best in the league). His hitting output was responsible for an All-Star worthy 5.7 WAR; he finished 9th in the MVP vote and won his 6th Silver Slugger. Along the way, Sosa tied Johnny Mize’s MLB record with his sixth game with 3 or more HR (that record stands to this day).

In 2003, the Cubs had a new manager (Dusty Baker) and, despite an off-season from Sosa by the standards he had set in the previous five seasons, the team won 88 and the N.L. Central title. Sosa, who finished the ’02 campaign with 499 career taters, swatted #500 for his career on April 4th in Cincinnati, resulting in a standing ovation in the enemy ballpark.

An incident in a July 3rd game against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays tarnished Sosa’s image and cast doubts upon his prowess as a home run hitter. When Sosa broke his bat in that game, home plate umpire Tim McClelland found cork at the center of the rod and ejected him from the game. Sosa claimed that he used the bat by accident (X-rays of Sosa’s other bats showed no evidence of cork). He was suspended for 7 games despite his protests that it was an innocent mistake.

Anyway, even in a down year (.279/.358/.553), Sosa hit 40 home runs with 103 RBI and 99 runs scored. Using advanced metrics, Sosa’s WAR was 2.7 and his OPS+ was 133, both lows since 1997.

Back in the playoffs for the first time since 1998, the Cubs were matched up again against the Atlanta Braves. This time, despite Sosa hitting just .188, the Cubs prevailed in 5 games, setting an NLCS matchup against the Wild Card Florida Marlins.

The 2003 NLCS

In Game 1 at Wrigley Field, Sosa showed his future Hall of Fame chops by delivering a game-tying, 2-run home run off the Marlins’ Ugueth Urbina with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. Although Florida would win in 11 innings, the Cubs tied the series in Game 2, with Sosa swatting another 2-run tater. Sosa went 3 for 5 with a walk and RBI in Game 3 and walked 3 times with 2 runs scored in Game 4. The Cubs, with a 3-to-1 series lead, needed just one more victory to make the World Series for the first time since 1945.

The Marlins sent the series back to Chicago thanks to a 2-hit shutout by Josh Beckett. In Game 6, Sosa went 3 for 4 with an RBI double to help Chicago to a 3-0 lead after 7 innings. In the 8th, however, thanks in part to the infamous Bartman play (in which a fan may or may not have prevented Cubs’ left fielder Moises Alou from catching a foul ball), the Marlins scored 8 runs and won the game easily. Florida would finish off the series the next night, with Sosa going 0 for 3 in Chicago’s 9-6 loss.

2004: Sosa’s Last Hurrah in Chicago

The 2004 season would be Sammy Sosa’s final one in Chi-town. Now 35 years old, his numbers continued to drop. He still hit 35 HR with 80 RBI (slugging .517) but his BA dropped to .253 and his OBP to .332 (translating to a 114 OPS+). With 5 straight losses down the stretch, the Cubs blew a chance at a Wild Card berth. Sosa asked Baker not to play him in the meaningless final game of the season, a request that Dusty accommodated. Still, according to the Chicago Tribune, Sosa showed up barely an hour before game time and left 30 minutes later without permission, which angered Baker and the Cubs’ brass.

2005: A Trade and Subpoena

The incident at the end of the 2004 campaign precipitated a trade the following February to the Baltimore Orioles, where he joined another member of the 500 home run club who was rumored to have used PEDs, Rafael Palmeiro. Shortly after the beginning of spring training, Sosa, Palmeiro, McGwire, and four other players were subpoenaed by the House Government Reform Committee to testify in front of Congress of the use of steroids in Major League Baseball.

As noted at the top of the piece, it was a bad day for the trio. While McGwire refused to talk about “the past,” both Sosa and Palmeiro denied using PEDs, with Palmeiro emphatically waving his finger at the House members during his denial. Sosa, who could speak English well enough to do a 30-minute interview with ESPN’s Up Close in 1998 (while I was the show’s Coordinating Producer), chose to speak his limited words through an interpreter.

Sosa testified that “everything” he had heard “about steroids and human growth hormones is that they are bad for you, even lethal” and that he “would never put anything dangerous like that” in his body. “To be clear, I have never taken illegal performance-enhancing drugs. I have never injected myself or had anyone inject me with anything.”

As reported earlier, Sosa was one of the 104 players who tested positive in an anonymous “survey test” in 2003. Therefore, by 2005, MLB and the players’ union had a drug-testing program in place. Palmeiro famously tested positive, destroying his legacy and certain Hall of Fame plaque that his 569 HR and 3,020 career hits would have earned him.

Sosa did not test positive but a cynic could easily look at his performance with the Orioles and conclude that he was clean for the first time in many years. Sosa finished the ’05 campaign with a .221 average, 14 HR, 45 RBI. His OPS+ of 78 was his lowest since 1991, his -1.0 WAR the worst of his career. Sosa became a free agent at the end of the season and not one team offered him a contract that he found acceptable for the 2006 campaign.

Final Rodeo: Back in Texas for 2007

Sammy Sosa finished his Major League Baseball career where he started it, with the Texas Rangers. After taking off the 2006 campaign, Sosa signed with Texas for $500,000 in January 2007. Now 38 years old, Sosa made the club out of spring training and became the team’s primary designated hitter.

In 114 games (454 plate appearances), Sosa slashed .252/.311/.468 (101 OPS+) with 21 HR (the most on the Rangers) and 92 RBI (second-most on the team). The highlight of his season was on June 20th, with the Rangers facing the Cubs in Texas. Facing Jason Marquis, Sosa hit a solo home run in the bottom of the 5th for the 600th long ball of his 18-year Major League Baseball career. With the blast to right-center, Sosa became just the 5th player in baseball history to reach the 600 HR milestone (joining Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays). The 609th and final home run of Sosa’s career was another opposite-field job on September 26th, the second to last game he would ever play.

The Hall of Fame Case for Sammy Sosa

Let’s forget for a moment the universal suspicions that Sammy Sosa used steroids to enhance his production during his peak years. Let’s pretend it doesn’t matter or that his production wasn’t actually enhanced by the drugs. Then, it’s pretty simple, isn’t it, the Hall of Fame case for Sammy Sosa? The dude hit 60+ home runs 3 times and 609 in his career, the 9th most in MLB history. During his MVP campaign of 1998, he and Mark McGwire captivated the imagination of baseball fans worldwide. Besides the homers, Sosa is the only player since Joe DiMaggio to drive in over 150 runs two times in his career.

That’s it. There’s your Hall of Fame case:

• 609 HR
• 60+ HR 3 times
• 150+ RBI twice
• 1998 MVP
• 7 All-Star appearances

The pace at which Sosa accumulated those 609 home runs is also eye-popping.

• From 1995-2003 (9 years), Sosa’s 444 HR are 45 more than the player with the second most (Bonds with 399). Additionally, Sosa’s 1,146 RBI from 1995-03 are 81 more than Palmeiro’s 1,085.
• From 1998-2002 (Sosa’s 5 best years), he hit 292 long balls, 53 more than Bonds. That’s a ridiculous pace of 58.4 HR per season over a five-year stretch. From 1998-01, he averaged 60.75 HR per season. That’s just behind McGwire’s 61.25 HR per season from 1996-99.

Sosa’s accomplishments give him 202 points on the Bill James “Hall of Fame monitor,” an accomplishments gauge in which 130 points typically designates a “cinch” Hall of Famer.

Problems with Sosa’s Cooperstown Case

Again, forgetting about his suspected PED use, what are the cracks in Sammy Sosa’s Hall of Fame case? The first and obvious is that, in the totality of his career, Sosa was somewhat of a one-trick pony. He was exceptionally good at that one trick, hitting home runs, but he was mostly not a well-rounded player.

Early in his career, Sosa was a very good defensive right fielder but, by the time he had become a superior hitter, he was merely average to below average with the glove. Also, early in his career, Sosa was fairly prolific at stealing bases. From 1990-97, Sosa’s 192 steals were the 19th most in Major League Baseball. This was at the same period of time that his 203 HR were 15th most. Bonds and Sosa were the only players to be in the top 20 of HR and SB for those eight years. This sounds good but the problem is that Sosa was also caught stealing 77 times, the 13th most. For that reason (and a low rate of “extra bases taken”), Sosa’s baserunning was barely a net positive.

Sosa’s penchant for the K is also a problem on his statistical resume. His 2,306 strikeouts are the 4th most in baseball history, behind Reggie Jackson, Jim Thome, and Adam Dunn. By themselves, Sosa’s punchouts aren’t a huge problem, given that Jackson and Thome are also Hall of Famers. The problem is that, while ranking 4th in whiffs, Sosa ranks just 162nd all-time with his 929 bases on balls. Thome ranks 7th in walks, Jackson 31st, and Dunn 43rd.

Sosa is the only member of the 500 home run club to strike out more than twice as many times as he walked. The only members of the 400 home run club who have a career ratio of K/BB worse than Sosa’s 2.48 are Dave Kingman, Andre Dawson, Juan Gonzalez, Alfonso Soriano, and Nelson Cruz. Of that quintet, only Dawson is a Hall of Famer (Cruz is still active).

How Good a Hitter was Sosa Overall?

Getting back to the derogatory label of “one-trick pony” that I conferred upon Sammy Sosa, how does his overall hitting game compare to fellow corner outfielders of the LCS era (1969 and beyond)?

I’m going to use one of my favorite advanced metrics, OPS+, which is the ballpark-and-era adjusted OPS (on-base% + slugging%). On the OPS+ scale, 100 is considered average. OPS+ is much better than raw OPS at comparing players across eras because hitting was simply easier in the 1990s and 2000s than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. There are reasons for this beyond potential PED abuse: there were more cozy ballparks, an additional four teams added from 1993-98 to dilute pitching staffs, and, most importantly, a possibly juiced baseball.

Anyway, there are 124 MLB players who logged at least 5,000 plate appearances and a minimum of 40% of their games in left field or right field between 1969 and 2019. Sosa’s career OPS+ of 128 is tied for 26th best (tied with Bobby Abreu, Moises Alou, Ryan Klesko, Tim Salmon, and Jim Rice). He’s behind non-Hall of Famers like Jack Clark, Brian Giles, Danny Tartabull, Ken Singleton, Greg Luzinski, and David Justice. Other than Rice, those are not Hall of Fame names (with the caveat that Abreu is also on the 2022 BBWAA ballot and a sneaky-decent Cooperstown candidate).

The reason for Sosa’s relatively weak showing in OPS+ relative to the others is that his OBP (.344) is just 70th best. Even though late in his career Sosa drew 100+ walks twice (thanks to a lot of intentional walks), getting on base via a free pass was generally not one of his skills.

Also, regarding these 124 left or right fielders, Sosa’s 379 doubles are only 35th best, his 45 triples 47th best. His 609 HR are, of course, 2nd best, only to Bonds. One-trick pony.

Sammy Sosa’s standing within the 500 Home Run Club

Despite positive overall numbers from his defense, Sosa’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is just 58.6. That’s by far the lowest among the 9 members of the 600 home run club (Thome is 2nd to last with a 73.1 WAR). It’s also the worst among the 15 members of the 550+ home run club (Harmon Killebrew is 2nd to last at 60.4). If you lower the bar to the 27 players who have hit 500 or more taters, only David Ortiz’s 55.3 WAR is less than Sosa’s. The reason for this is because WAR punishes Big Papi for being almost exclusively a designated hitter.

Using the batting component that goes until WAR (listed on Baseball-Reference as “Runs Batting”), Sosa’s 332.7 “runs above average from batting” is the second-lowest total among those 28 members; only Ernie Banks (a shortstop for half of his career) rates lower purely as a hitter. For the record, Sosa’s 128 OPS+ is also the second-lowest, above only Banks’ 122.

Again, using “Runs Batting,” Sosa ranks 15th among the 127 LF or RF I referenced in the section above. He’s way behind fellow 2022 Cooperstown candidates Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield while also trailing (by a smaller margin) Clark, Abreu, Giles, Dwight Evans, and Albert Belle).

Sosa and the 2022 BBWAA Ballot

Sammy Sosa is on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th time right now. He was a part of a star-studded first-ballot cast in 2013, one that included Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Mike Piazza, and Craig Biggio. Famously, the writers of the BBWAA did not elect anybody that year. Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling remain with Sosa on the ballot while Piazza and Biggio have plaques in Cooperstown. Sosa, in his first year on the ballot, got 12.5% of the vote, the lowest percentage by far among these six stars. On the eight ballots that have followed, Sosa has gotten between 6.6% to 17.0% while Bonds and Clemens have slowly climbed from the mid-3o’s to over 60%.

Every ballot from 2013 to 2019 was so stacked with talent that, when you remember that each writer is limited to ten players they can vote for, it’s understandable that Sosa didn’t make the cut. Clearly, of the trio including Bonds and Clemens, Sosa is by far the weakest candidate.

The 2020 ballot was far less stacked than it had been in any of Sosa’s first seven years of eligibility. Four players from the 2019 ballot were inducted that summer and Fred McGriff was aged off the ballot after ten years. So, for 2020, five big names came off the ballot while Derek Jeter was the only obvious Hall of Famer joining the party for the first time. Even so, Sosa’s 13.9% put him in just 14th place among the 32 players on the ballot. The 2021 ballot contained no new obvious Hall of Famers. Many players made big gains in the voting, but Sosa merely crept up to 17.0%, putting him 12th out of the 25 candidates.

Although the suspicions about Sosa’s PED use is the obvious reason for the futility of his Cooperstown cause, it’s interesting to note that there are legitimate performance-based arguments for Sosa not being one of the ten best candidates on any of the ballots he’s been on, including the 2022 version. In the previous segments, I’ve demonstrated that Sosa’s fame rests almost exclusively with his home run prowess.

I do not believe in using WAR to choose Hall of Famers but it’s a useful place to start to help determine a player’s strengths and weaknesses. Even so, if a BBWAA voter were to pick 10 names on the 2022 ballot strictly by that metric, Sosa still wouldn’t make the cut because his 58.6 WAR is only 13th best.

2022 BBWAA Ballot Outfielder Comparison

There are five corner outfield candidates on the 2022 ballot who are likely to receive 5% or more of the vote: Bonds, Ramirez, Sheffield, Abreu, and Sosa. All but Abreu have been linked to or suspected of PED use.

Ranked by WAR, Sosa is last among the five. By the offensive component that goes into WAR (Runs Batting), Sosa is last among the five. By OPS+, he’s tied for 4th with Abreu. By RBI, he ranks 3rd. By home runs, he’s 2nd. That’s his calling card.

Anyway, here are the numbers, leaving Bonds out just because it’s boring. He leads in everything by a mile except for batting average:

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Every player here has a different circumstance. Ramirez was clearly a vastly better hitter than Sosa but Ramirez actually failed two tests after the league’s drug-testing regime was put into place. That puts him in the “known PED user” category while Sosa is just in the suspected category.

What about Sheffield? Another supremely talented right-handed hitter, Sheffield admitted using steroids, claiming he didn’t know what he was taking. As I explain in more detail in this piece, I find his story sincere and plausible.

As for Abreu, the 2-time All-Star had a better career than people realize. If you look at the numbers compared to Sammy’s, they look pretty darned good except for the huge disparity in HR and RBI, not an insignificant thing to be sure.

How many HR would Sammy Sosa have hit without PEDs?

First of all, let me state that the premise of the question atop this section assumes that Sosa was a PED user despite the lack of specific evidence, other than the “survey test” results of 2003 reported by the New York Times that Commissioner Rob Manfred has stated were not fully verified.

Do you, the reader, think that Sammy Sosa was a steroid user? I don’t know that with any absolute certainty nor do likely any of you as readers. Sosa knows for sure, and a few people close to him certainly know, but almost none of us know with absolute certainty. We just have to ask ourselves, as real or virtual Hall of Famer voters, “am I so certain that Sosa used PEDs that I will not vote for him for the Hall of Fame?” Personally, I am certain. I would bet the farm on it even though I don’t own a farm. I would buy one with a big mortgage and bet that farm that Sosa used PEDs.

While writing the first iteration of this piece two years ago, I asked my Twitter followers to guess how many home runs Sosa would have hit without any use of PEDs, with the final option to the question being “don’t think he used PEDs.” The results were fascinating.

 

Less than 10% of the respondents believe that he would have hit as many as 575 home runs (out of the 609 he hit in real life). My personal answer (total conjecture, of course) was that he would have hit between 525 and 574 taters without the juice. If my guess were to be correct, I think it’s fair that Sosa would deserve a plaque in the Hall on the basis of performance only (I’m not talking about the morality of it yet).

A whopping 63% of respondents believe that he would have hit fewer than 525 home runs. Many people commented with numbers from the mid 300’s to the high 400’s. Considering that virtually all of Slammin’ Sammy’s Cooperstown case comes from his home run numbers, fewer than 525 would, in my mind, make his Hall of Fame on a performance basis far less certain. With 84 or more fewer home runs, even if all of the “not home runs” turned into doubles or triples (not likely at all), his OPS+ would have been dramatically lower than the 128 that it already is. It would not be unreasonable, if this could miraculously be proven, to compare Sosa (as a hitter) to Jose Canseco or Paul Konerko.

Another Take about the Impact of PEDs

What I found fascinating in this discussion was a website shared with me by James Beemer, one of my Twitter “friends.” This extraordinary website, created by baseball mathematician/statistician/scientist Eric Walker, claims that PEDs have virtually no impact on a player’s performance on the field. Walker’s entire body of work would take a full day of work to fully digest. Here are some of the baseline summary conclusions (paraphrasing):

• PEDs have had virtually no impact on player home run totals. Instead, the power surge of the mid-1990s and beyond are due to a livelier baseball.
• The reason that PEDs have almost no impact on home runs is that the vast majority of PED workout benefits go to an athlete’s upper body (pecs, biceps, triceps) while the vast majority of a baseball player’s power comes from his thighs and torso.
• Medical science has long been aware that strength tends to peak at the age of 40. “That a man can, by a diligent exercise regimen, sustain, or even improve, strength after his early 30s is no puzzle or inexplicable oddity — it is normal human behavior.”

There’s vastly more to Walker’s case. He also argues that the “healing effects” of PEDs are a myth. Walker also goes into an extensive discussion about Barry Bonds, noting that his increased home run production after the 1998 “Home Run Chase” between McGwire and Sosa was based on having a workout regimen that was more intense and strenuous than anything he had done before. Regarding Bonds’ historic 2001 season, in which he hit 73 home runs, Walker refers to that as a “famous one-shot spike,” a year that was “a freak, even for Bonds.” Walker notes that Roger Maris also had a huge spike 40 years earlier when he hit 61 home runs and nobody attributed it to steroids. Remember, also, that Bonds’ second-highest single-season HR total was 49 (in 2000). The year 2001 was an anomaly.

“The massive increase in rigor of his (Bonds’) training regimen appears by itself quite adequate to account for the moderate post-1998 boost in his power, especially considering–yet again–that steroids do not much (if at all) boost the crucial lower-body musculature that gives a batter power, whereas endless squats and like workout exercises do. And the one-time spike in 2001 is a classic statistical “burp” of the sort seen in many men’s careers (but not so often noticed because even their one spiked year’s output is not newsworthy)…. He may or may not have taken steroids, knowingly or unknowingly–but it doesn’t matter to his performance.”

— Eric Walker (www.steroids-and-baseball.com)

Walker was talking here about Bonds but could just as easily be referring to Sammy Sosa.

(By the way, Robert K. Adair, a retired Yale Professor who is the author of The Physics of Baseball, also disputes the benefits of a corked bat. You may recall that Sosa was suspended for corking his bat during a game in 2003).

Thoughts on Walker’s Principal Conclusion as it Relates to Sammy Sosa

Allow me to share some thoughts about Eric Walker’s research. It’s highly compelling but missing one key thing (unless I missed it). Walker talked about Bonds’ strenuous workout regimen, noting that endless squats will boost a player’s lower-body musculature than steroids. What he did not note was the possibility (and likelihood, in my opinion) that Bonds (and other steroid users) were able to work out longer and harder because of PEDs than they were able to before going on the juice. It’s for this reason that I do think that it’s fair to attribute at least a small percentage of a player’s surge in home run power to the use of PEDs.

However, the idea that any player would hit 100 more HR over the course of a career because of PEDs seems extremely far-fetched to me. When McGwire hit 70 HR and Sosa hit 66 in 1998, the third-highest total in the National League belonged to San Diego’s Greg Vaughn, who hit 50. The next year, when Big Mac hit 65 while Sammy slammed 63, the third-highest total was 45 (a tie between Vaughn and Chipper Jones). Jose Canseco, an admitted steroid user throughout his career, never hit more than 46 long balls.

It seems to me that, while McGwire and Sosa may have gotten a marginal benefit from their certain steroid use, their homer binge is the result mostly of the fact that all players benefited from a livelier baseball and that they were simply better at hitting home runs than all of their peers. McGwire was (his word) “born” to hit home runs; after all, he did hit 49 as a rookie in 1987. Sosa, although a skinny kid as a rookie, had a quick bat and could hit the ball out of the park. As he got older, he filled out and bulked up and, as a free swinger, started to hit more homers.

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How do we explain Sosa’s extraordinary surge from 36 taters in 1997 to 66 in 1998? Maybe PEDs played a small role but more likely his hitting coach Jeff Pentland played a bigger role when he turned Sosa’s toe-tap into a timing mechanism. He became better at hitting home runs, just as players today increase their home run power by perfecting their launch angle.

If you ask me, as someone who believes in the science Walker shares but also remains skeptical that there’s no impact on a player’s home run total from using PEDs, my personal belief is that Sosa would still have hit over 550 home runs even if he had never used steroids but I think it’s legitimate to question whether he would have hit 60 home runs three times, or even once.

PED Morality and the Ortiz Conundrum

First, allow me to dispatch with the morality issue. There are many Hall of Fame voters (and players) who desire to exclude PED users because they are “cheaters.” OK, if that’s how you feel, it’s hard to argue against it. I would argue, on the other side, that baseball did not have any specific rules against using PEDs when Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro, Clemens, and others were (allegedly) using. The players’ union was staunchly against drug testing and Commissioner Bud Selig, in the aftermath of the disastrous 1994-95 strike, did not push the issue. (Selig was rewarded with a Hall of Fame plaque in 2017 despite presiding over the steroid era).

I have written extensively about the various positions that writers take on PED-linked candidates for the Hall of Fame in this piece about Bonds and Clemens. Sammy Sosa falls into what I and others have labeled “performance only” voters. Virtually everyone thinks he used PEDs and many (including yours truly) have questioned the authenticity of his accomplishments.

Now, as I noted at the top of the piece, the only tangible link between Sosa and steroid use is the 2009 New York Times report that he was one of the 104 players who tested positive in what was supposed to be anonymous testing in 2003. The records were supposed to be destroyed but weren’t; eventually, the names were leaked. As previously noted, another big name on that 2003 list belongs to David Ortiz, who is on the ballot this year for the first time.

As I mentioned earlier, current MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has essentially signaled that Ortiz should be given a pass because the test results were unverified and that there were at least 10 false positives. So, it’s time to answer the question I posed at the top: if the test isn’t good enough to tarnish the legacy of Ortiz, why is it good enough to tarnish Sosa’s legacy?

Here is the answer. Virtually all of Sammy Sosa’s career occurred in the “wild west” era in which there was no testing for PED abuse. On the other hand, Ortiz had to submit to drug tests with all of the possible penalties that a positive test would require in each of his final twelve MLB seasons (2005-16). Secondly, Big Papi was always, well, big, whereas Slammin’ Sammy’s body type evolved from Slim Sosa to Supersized Sosa. Even if you believe in Eric Walker’s research that Sosa’s massive biceps didn’t help him hit home runs, those biceps sure didn’t look entirely natural.

Conclusion

I had long been against Sammy Sosa for the Hall out of the belief that his principal accomplishment is a sham. Last year, after spending an hour on Eric Walker’s website, I’m not as sure. He did accomplish something (three 60+ HR seasons) that no other steroid-using player was able to accomplish. He did hit 600 home runs, something that dozens (hundreds?) of PED using players did not do.

At this point, I personally would have no problem with Sosa in the Hall of Fame. However, for many of the reasons cited earlier in this piece, I never felt that he was one of the 10 best players on the ballot. A year ago, however, with a less-packed list of players eligible for Cooperstown, I decided to check his name on my make-believe ballot. I regarded that virtual vote for Sosa as an acknowledgment that, despite the many flaws of his overall Hall of Fame resume, he was an integral part of the history of the game around the turn of the century. He has statistical feats that are uniquely his own.

However, with the addition of Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez to the 2022 ballot, I no longer have room for Sosa, in part due to the futility of his chances at the Hall. Additionally, it’s already been proven that there will not be hundreds of BBWAA writers who change their minds about Sosa this year. As previously noted, he only got 17.0% of the vote in 2021 and is tracking at under 25% for 2022. That’s not remotely close to the 75% needed for a plaque in Cooperstown.

Sosa (along with Bonds, Clemens, and Curt Schilling) will be eligible for a second chance at the Hall in one year when the “Today’s Game” Eras Committee meets. Other potential candidates for that ballot include manager Bruce Bochy and slugger Fred McGriff. It will be interesting to see how the Eras Committee considers those linked to PEDs. Even if they’re inclined to smile favorably on them (which I doubt), one would assume that Bonds and Clemens will be at the front of that line.

Baseball was very very good to Sammy Sosa during his playing career. He enjoyed fame and fortune. But that fame seems like it will, for a while, stop short of a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

PS — I started writing about the Hall of Fame in late 2014. if you’re curious about the 10 players that I would have voted for in the previous six years if I had a real ballot, scroll down below this final Getty Image of Sammy for my virtual ballots for posterity. You’ll be amazed to see how packed some of those ballots were!

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2015 ballot: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Mike Piazza, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff. (At the time, I considered Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire “lost causes” and not worth voting for because they would deny votes for other deserving players).

2016 ballot: Ken Griffey Jr., Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Bagwell, Martinez, Mike Mussina, McGriff, Jeff Kent, Jim Edmonds

2017 ballot: Raines, Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez, Schilling, Martinez, Vladimir Guerrero, Mussina, Trevor Hoffman, Bonds, Clemens

2018 ballot: Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Guerrero, Schilling, Martinez, Mussina, Hoffman, Bonds, Clemens, McGriff

2019 ballot: Mariano Rivera, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Roy Halladay, Martinez, McGriff, Larry Walker, Kent

2020 ballot: Derek Jeter, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Walker, Kent, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez

2021 ballot: Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent, Rolen, Sheffield, Helton, Ramirez, Andy Pettitte, Sosa

2022 ballot (not written yet): Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Ortiz, A-Rod, Kent, Rolen, Sheffield, Helton, Ramirez