Cobra: Will Dave Parker have Another Chance to Strike at Cooperstown?

One of the most colorful and significant players of the second half of the 1970s, Dave Parker looked like a sure bet to eventually make baseball’s Hall of Fame. As the decade came to a close, Parker was an MVP, World Series Champion, 3-time Gold Glove Award winner, and owned a career .317 batting average.

The 1980s, however, brought controversy and inconsistent play. Still, when his career came to an end after the 1991 season, Parker had a .290 lifetime batting average with 339 home runs and 2,712 hits. As it turns out, that wasn’t good enough. As a candidate for the Hall of Fame, Parker debuted on the writers’ ballot (the Baseball Writers Association of America) in 1997 and got 17.5% of the vote. The next year, his voting percentage rose to 24.5%. In 1999, however, on a star-studded ballot with first-timers Nolan Ryan, George Brett, Robin Yount, Carlton Fisk, and Dale Murphy, Parker slipped to 16.1%. He would never regain momentum, spending another 12 years on the ballot, never once again matching that 1998 tally.

Since his BBWAA ballot eligibility has expired, the Cobra has been on three “second chance” ballots via the Eras Committee, previously known as the Veterans Committee. In the most recent iteration, Parker was one of 12 candidates on the “Modern Baseball” Hall of Fame ballot. He came in fourth place, earning 7 votes in an election requiring 12 for induction into Cooperstown. On that ballot, catcher Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller (the longtime head of the players’ union) were elected to the Hall, with outfielder Dwight Evans coming in 3rd place with 8 affirmative votes.

Today, on Dave Parker’s 70th birthday, we pose one main question, the one that this piece will attempt to answer. Does Parker deserve a spot in Cooperstown? Well, if you ask him, the answer is “yes.”

“I think I should be there… Most people that know me and played against me, they look at me as a Hall of Famer anyway. I don’t think that there was anybody from 1975 to 1981 that was a better player than me.”

— Dave Parker (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, July 21, 2019)

“There can’t be a hall of fame without Dave Parker in it. He was feared. We wouldn’t have won as much as we did without Dave. He’s one of the best players I’ve seen. He should’ve been in the Hall.”

— Rennie Stennett, Pirates 2B 1971-79 (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, July 21, 2019)

Parker will next be eligible for the Eras Committee ballot in December 2023, when he will likely be a candidate for the Hall’s Class of 2024.

Cooperstown Cred: Dave Parker (RF)

• Pittsburgh Pirates (1973-83), Cincinnati Reds (1984-87), Oakland Athletics (1988-89), Milwaukee Brewers (1990), California Angels (1991), Toronto Blue Jays (1991)
• Career: .290 BA, 339 HR, 1,493 RBI, 2,712 Hits
• Career: 121 OPS+, 40.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 1978 N.L. MVP with Pittsburgh Pirates (.334 BA, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 215 hits)
• Runner-up for 1985 N.L. MVP with Cincinnati Reds (.312 BA, 34 HR, 125 RBI)
• 5 times in Top 5 of N.L. MVP voting
• 2-time N.L. batting champion
• Member of the 1979 World Champion Pirates & 1989 World Champion Oakland A’s
• 7-time All-Star
• 3-time Gold Glove Award Winner

(cover photo: Associated Press)

This is an update of a piece originally posted in November 2017.

Dave Parker: Career Highlights

Standing at 6 feet 5 inches tall and weighing from 225 to as many as 270 pounds, Dave Parker was a figure larger than life and, though not the tallest, certainly the biggest player in Major League Baseball throughout most of his 19-year playing career. For his trademark bat-waving stance and lightning-quick swing, Parker earned the nickname “Cobra,” given to him by the Pirates team trainer Tony Bartirome and made famous by play-by-play announcer Bob Prince.

In his first two major league seasons (1973 and 1974) with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the left-handed-hitting Parker was mostly a platoon player and, despite his size, not much of a power hitter, swatting 8 home runs in 377 plate appearances. The ’74 Pirates were the champions of the National League East but lost in the NLCS to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers were led by N.L. MVP Steve Garvey, who has been with Parker on previous Modern Baseball ballots.

In 1975, Parker became a full-time player and one of the game’s biggest young stars. Parker hit .308 with 25 home runs, 101 RBI, and a N.L.-best .541 slugging percentage. For his efforts, he finished third in the league’s MVP voting, behind Hall of Famer Joe Morgan and Greg Luzinski.

Parker regressed a bit in 1976; he still hit .313 but dropped to 13 home runs and a .475 slugging percentage.

1977-79: One of the Game’s Best Players

From 1977-1979, Dave Parker was one of the three to five best players in the game. In ’77, he led the N.L. in batting (.338), hits (215), and doubles (44). He scored 107 runs while driving in 88 (with 21 homers). He earned his first All-Star berth and once again finished third in the MVP vote, behind George Foster and Luzinski.

Defensively, Parker also announced himself as one of the game’s top right fielders, displaying a powerful arm befitting a man of his physical stature. In 1977, Parker gunned down 26 base-runners from right field, the most since Roberto Clemente‘s 27 in 1961 and still the most in the last 58 years. The assist total earned the Cobra the first of his three Gold Gloves His bazooka-like arm wasn’t always entirely accurate, however; he also led all N.L. right fielders with 15 errors. In his career, he led the league in right-fielder errors 7 times and the 134 for his career are the 2nd most all-time.

Parker followed up his stellar ’77 campaign with a MVP trophy in 1978. He hit 30 home runs with 117 RBI. He led all of baseball with a .334 batting average while also leading the N.L. with a .585 slugging percentage. Although they were not known statistics at the time, Parker’s .979 OPS (and 166 adjusted OPS+) were the best in the majors.

“There was a time when many of us in the game thought Dave Parker was flat-out the baddest dude in baseball. There wasn’t anything he couldn’t do. A big man who moved well. Power. The arm. Also, the brashness … cockiness, maybe? Whatever. It was real, man. It was almost like a caricature.”

— Clint Hurdle (Pirates Manager 2011-19), The Athletic (July 5, 2019)

In the off-season following his MVP campaign, the Pirates rewarded their best player with a five-year contract that was reportedly worth $7.75 million, with much of the money coming in deferred payments scheduled over 30 years. Because of the terms, Parker was referred to as the first “million-dollar ballplayer” and it was a moniker that didn’t go over well in blue-collar Pittsburgh.

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The 1979 World Champions

Although he wouldn’t match the heights of his ’78 season, Dave Parker’s 1979 campaign, the first under the new contract, was a success for him personally and for the team. The Pirates, made famous by the leadership of “Pops” Willie Stargell and the Sister Sledge song “We Are Family,” won the World Series in 7 games against the Baltimore Orioles.

Parker hit .310 with 25 home runs and 94 RBI and finished 10th in the N.L. MVP vote (a vote in which Stargell and Keith Hernandez were named co-MVPs). Besides the World Championship, the highlight of Parker’s ’79 campaign was during the All-Star Game at the Kingdome in Seattle. The Cobra was the game’s MVP thanks to two assists from right field, the most famous being when he preserved a 6-6 tie by gunning down Brian Downing with a no-bounce throw to home plate to end the 8th inning. If you’ve never seen it, this throw is worth a look!

1980-83: Regression

Although he made the ’80 and ’81 All-Star teams based on reputation, 1979 was the only season in that five-year contract in which Dave Parker was one of the game’s top players. Due to injury, increased weight, and (by his own admission) his use of cocaine, Parker was a larger shell of his former self from 1980-83; he averaged 415 plate appearances with 11 HR, 56 RBI, and a .280 batting average, over 40 points below the .321 standard he had set for himself from 1975 to ’79.

Cincinnati Reds (1984-87)

A free agent after the 1983 campaign, Dave Parker signed with his hometown team, the Cincinnati Reds. He left behind the only major league team he had ever known and, to comply with his new team’s policy on facial hair, left behind his trademark beard. Although he drove in 94 runs in his inaugural season in the Queen City (his highest total since 1979), it was an otherwise average season. He hit .285 with 16 home runs with a lowly .328 on-base percentage.

1985 represented Parker’s renaissance campaign on the field. He set career highs with 34 home runs and 125 RBI, leading the league in that category and with 42 doubles. He hit .312 (his lone .300 season since 1979) and his 198 hits were the second-best total in his career. It was also, according to the metrics on Baseball-Reference, his best overall defensive season since 1977. Although modern analytics list his 4.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as just the 17th best in the league, thanks to his stellar offensive numbers, Parker finished 2nd in the MVP voting to Willie McGee.

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Because of 31 home runs and 116 RBI, Parker finished 5th in the 1986 MVP vote but this was not a great offensive campaign. His batting average dipped to .273, with his OPS plummeting from .916 to .807. After his struggles in his final four years in Pittsburgh, perhaps Parker’s biggest accomplishment in Cincinnati was staying healthy; he averaged 158 games played per season.

Oakland Athletics (1988-89)

After the 1987 season, the Reds traded Parker to the Oakland A’s for two young pitchers, including a 22-year old talent named Jose Rijo, who would emerge as the Reds’ ace starter for many years. In his first year in Oakland, Parker’s recent luck of good health came to an end. Strained ligaments in his right thumb due to a slide at second base knocked nearly two months off of his inaugural campaign on the east side of the Bay Area. He finished with pedestrian numbers: a career-low .257 average with 12 HR and 55 RBI. That Oakland team was heavily favored to win the World Series but succumbed in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

1989 was a little better for the Cobra; in a lineup featuring Mark McGwire, Parker (the team’s designated hitter) led the squad with 97 RBI (to go with 22 home runs). That team won the earthquake-delayed World Series in a four-game sweep over the San Francisco Giants.

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Now exclusively a DH, Parker spent the last two seasons of his career bouncing from the Brewers to the Angels to the Blue Jays. 1991 was his last season in the majors.

The Cooperstown Case for and Against Dave Parker

As it is with two other members of recent Modern Game ballots (Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy), Dave Parker’s Hall of Fame case is built exclusively on peak years early in his career in which he was one of the top players in the game. If you asked 100 sportswriters after the Pirates won the ’79 World Series whether they thought Parker was a future Hall of Famer, you would have gotten far more than 75% to say yes.

Here is how Parker ranked in 9 key statistical categories from 1975-1979:

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This is a good list but not historically stellar, with Parker’s rankings here diminished slightly by his off-year of 1976. He was never a premier power hitter, which is surprising because of his impressive physical size. He’s behind Foster in several categories and Ken Singleton in the key number OPS+, which adds on-base% with slugging% and adjusts for ballpark effects.

As it is so often in baseball history, fame can be fleeting and turn to infamy. In the years following the Bucs’ World Championship, Parker turned into the poster child for the overpaid and overweight athlete. From 1980-83, in what should have been the prime of his career, Parker was barely above a replacement-level player:

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As we’ve discussed, Parker had somewhat of a mid-career renaissance with the Reds but, in totality, the final eight years of his career (in Cincinnati, Oakland, Milwaukee, Anaheim, and Toronto) did not enhance his Hall of Fame prospects:

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The chief credential here is that the Cobra remained a RBI man. Still, he’s behind four non-Hall of Famers on the RBI list for this 8-year period of time (Bell, Mattingly, Strawberry, and Joe Carter).

Why is WAR So Unkind to Dave Parker?

On the previous two charts, Dave Parker’s WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is brutal. Remember, though, that WAR is an approximation and is context-neutral. It does not always give credit for what actually happened on the field, such as a run batted in.

When Parker played in all 162 games with the ’86 Reds, he hit 31 home runs and drove in 116 runners. He was 5th in the MVP balloting. But on his Baseball-Reference profile, his WAR was a woeful 0.3, thanks to a low on-base percentage (.330) and brutally bad defensive metrics. So WAR is telling us that the Reds could have replaced Parker with a player from the AAA level of the minors and it would have had no impact on the team’s winning percentage. Call me skeptical. I would say that Parker’s .349 BA, .441 OBP, and .717 SLG with runners in scoring position (compared to a .225 BA, .272 OBP, and .357 SLG with bases empty) establishes the value of those 116 RBI. Timing does matter.

On the 1989 Athletics, Parker led the World Series Champions with 97 RBI in the regular season. As a result, the writers placed him 11th in the MVP voting. However, .308 on-base% again dragged his WAR down to 0.3. As he did in ’86, Parker over-performed with a .841 OPS with RISP compared to a .687 OPS with bases empty. RBI matter. However, runs scored also matter and, thanks to that low OPS with the bases empty, he only scored 56 times in 600 plate appearances.

For the last 6 years of his career, Parker’s WAR is -0.4. During those years, he averaged 20 HR and 86 RBI. His OPS+ was 104, which is above average but not much so. His lack of walks throughout his career kept his WAR low. That’s entirely reasonable; a lack of walks can often make a player look better than he really is. By contrast, a high number of walks can legitimately indicate that a player is actually better than his reputation. But if WAR is telling me that Dave Parker contributed nothing of value to his teams for 6 years, I’m not buying it.

With that little tangential diatribe finished, Parker didn’t rate well in any category over the final two phases of his career (1980-83 with the Pirates and 1984-91 with five other franchises) so if there’s any Hall of Fame case to be made it’s in the cumulative value of his numbers and in the peak value of his five best years in Pittsburgh.

Comparison to Jim Rice

Despite a low number of walks, the rest of Dave Parker’s game was so good from 1975-79 that, as we saw, his WAR was the fourth-best among all position players in the majors (behind only Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Rod Carew). It was better than Joe Morgan’s (and that period of time includes Little Joe’s two MVP Awards); it was better than Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Jim Rice, contemporaries of a similar age.

When I think about Dave Parker’s career, I often think of him in comparison to Rice.

• They both became full-time players in 1975.
• They each finished 3rd in the 1975 MVP voting.
• Parker finished 3rd in 1977 N.L. MVP vote; Rice was 4th in the A.L.
• In 1978, both won their league’s MVP trophy and were among the game’s greatest young stars.
• Rice made 8 All-Star teams; Parker made 7 (and would have been on an 8th in ’78 if he hadn’t been injured)

The commonalities between the men also include the fact that neither player quite lived up to the potential that they showed in ’78. Rice retired after the 1989 season; Parker was finished two years later. Rice debuted on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1995 and got 30% of the vote. Two years later Rice was up to 38% and Parker debuted with a 17.5% tally.

For Rice, it was a 15-year slog through the BBWAA voting process. He was finally granted a Cooperstown plaque in his 15th and final try with 76% of the vote in 2009. As we’ve discussed, Parker also stuck on the ballot for 15 years but never even cracked the 25% barrier. Here is how their career statistics look side-by-side:

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While Parker is ahead in RBI and hits, he had 1,126 more career plate appearances. Pound for pound, Rice was the superior player. And hence this is the problem for the Hall of Fame candidacy for Dave Parker. Rice is considered by many pundits to have been a borderline (or even unworthy) Hall of Famer. I don’t feel that way but I’ll admit I’m biased. As a life-long Red Sox fan, Rice was one of my favorite baseball players as a kid. The problem is that if your statistics fall short of the stats of a borderline inductee, that puts you below the borderline.

Comparison to Dale Murphy

Let’s do two more comparisons, putting Dave Parker side-by-side with the other outfielders on the most recent Modern Baseball ballot. First, how does the Cobra compare to the Atlanta Braves long-time center fielder Dale Murphy? Like Parker, Murphy had a terrific peak but faded in his later years. Let’s just take a look at his numbers next to Parker’s.

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It’s pretty close. Parker, thanks to an additional 1,143 plate appearances, had many more hits and RBI. He had a much higher batting average but 59 fewer home runs. Ultimately, other than the long balls, Parker’s stats are a little better, but not much. Murphy’s WAR, however, is higher because he played a more important position on the defensive spectrum, center field. Also, Murphy won two MVPs to Parker’s one. He won five Gold Gloves to Parker’s three. Murphy also had a longer peak, one that was eight years long (1980-1987).

Off the field, Murphy was a choir boy while Parker was at times a “bad” boy. Murphy was a Latter-Day Saint who did not drink alcoholic beverages while Parker dabbled in cocaine. I strongly believe that Parker’s transgressions of the past should not be held against him decades later but also feel that Murphy’s character deserves extra credit.

Comparison to Dwight Evans

During their playing careers, many fans and observers looked upon Parker, Rice, and Murphy as future Cooperstown inductees. They all had fabulous peak years and the big MVP campaigns that put a player on the radar of any Hall of Fame enthusiasts. Nobody looked upon Dwight Evans that way. He was looked upon as a defensive specialist with a right arm that could rival Parker’s but as a merely average hitter.

What happened, however, is that Parker started to struggle. At the same time, Evans blossomed as a batsman in the second half of the 1980 season and, for the next decade, was one of the game’s very best hitters. In December 2019, Evans was on the Modern Baseball ballot for the first time. As the other right fielder on that ballot, a direct comparison with Parker is germane.

First of all, let’s establish why, after the Pirates won the 1979 World Series, that the Cobra was a famous future Hall of Famer and Dewey was not.

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While both players had 3 Gold Gloves at the time, it’s pretty obvious why nobody would have seen Cooperstown potential in the Red Sox right fielder while Parker seemed like he was on a glide path. But look at what happened from 1980 and beyond to the two right fielders with the bazookas for right arms. Both players retired after the 1991 season.

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I’ve purposely highlighted four categories here: BA, HR, RBI, and Hits. These are the statistical categories that, until recently, were considered by far the most important when it came to evaluating potential Hall of Famers or MVP candidates. As you can see, Evans was ahead of Parker for an 11-year period in all of these categories, but not by much. Where Evans has the dramatic edge is in on-base percentage and (as a consequence) runs scored and in the advanced metrics that didn’t exist when the two players retired after the 1991 campaign.

So, let’s look at the final career numbers of both. I’m adding each player’s career walks, which explain the fundamental difference in why Evans has a superior number of runs scored, OBP, OPS+, and WAR.

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It’s plain to me that, if you had to pick a right fielder from the 2020 Modern Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, the best choice was Dwight Evans. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they don’t both belong. As we return the focus next back to the Cobra, we’ll see the problem that he and Evans share, a problem that helps explain why neither got close to Cooperstown on the writers’ ballots.

Dave Parker’s Milestone Problem

Traditionally in baseball history, the pursuit of a Hall of Fame career has been a pursuit of milestones. For a position player, the two key milestones are 3,000 hits and 500 home runs. The steroid era has erased those milestones as automatic achievements for a Hall of Fame plaque but they remain relevant for any player deemed “clean.”

When a player falls shy of those benchmarks, other criteria come into play. Why did they fall short? Injuries? Retiring early? How many awards did they win? How dominant were they at their peaks? What other achievements do they have?

Parker had some injuries but not an inordinate amount. He played in 148 or more games 10 times in 19 seasons. Three other years he played in over 130 contests. He was 40 years old when he retired. 26 of the 32 players with over 3,000 hits had achieved the milestone by their age 40 season.

Players with 10,000 Plate Appearances

Dave Parker is one of just 87 players in MLB history with over 10,000 plate appearances (his total of 10,184 is the 77th most). Of those 87 players, 46 played primarily left field, right field, at first base, or DH, positions where premium offensive production is expected from a Hall of Famer. (Note: because he played more than 50% of his career games at first base, Ernie Banks is one of these 46). Among those 46, Parker’s 10,184 PA are the 40th most.

• Among those 46 1B, LF, RF, or DH with 10,000 PA, Parker’s 2,712 career hits are 33rd out of those 46. Considering that he’s 40th in PA, being 33rd in hits means he’s outperforming, so that’s good. Additionally, the Cobra’s 1,493 RBI rank 27th. That’s good too.
• Regarding the hit total, one of the problems at looking solely at hit totals is that it penalizes players who had high on-base percentages (due to their propensity to take walks). If you look at total “times on base” (including walks, hit batsmen, and reaching on an error), Parker’s total of 3,560 is 2nd to last among these 46 corner outfielders, first sackers, or designated hitters. The player behind him? Bill Buckner, who never got remotely close to the Hall of Fame.
• The result of not getting on base as much is that you don’t score as many runs. Parker’s 1,272 runs scored are tied (with Tony Perez) for the 3rd fewest. Only Rusty Staub and Buckner scored fewer.
• Overall, among the 46 corner outfielders, first basemen, and DH with over 10,000 PA, Parker’s WAR of 40.1 is the 3rd lowest (only Harold Baines‘s and Buckner’s are lower).

If you expand the list of players at these positions to those with 9,500 or more PA, you get 62 total players who played primarily at the corner outfield spots, first base, or DH, and it still doesn’t look good for the Cobra.

Dave Parker Ranks among the 62 corner OF, 1B, or DH with 9,500+ PA

• 10,184 plate appearances: 40th out of 62
• 2,712 hits: 39th out of 62
• 3,560 times on base: 58th out of 62 (ahead of Sammy Sosa, Al Oliver, Paul Konerko & Buckner)
• 1,272 runs: tied for 54th out of 62 (ahead of Chili Davis, Willie McCovey, Mickey Vernon, Staub, Oliver, Konerko & Buckner)
• 1,493 RBI: 36th out of 62
• 40.1 WAR: 57th out of 62 (ahead of Baines, Davis, Vernon, Konerko & Buckner)

The hits and RBI numbers are solid, the others are not.

A very simple “old school” way to evaluate a player’s offense is to look at his career ranks in various categories compared to his career rank in plate appearances, which can be defined as “help your team” opportunities. Parker is 77th all-time (all positions) in PA. He’s 58th in RBI; that’s good. But he’s 141st in runs scored; that’s NOT good, and a consequence of his low OBP. Parker’s .339 OBP ranks 617th among the 1,019 players in baseball history with 5,000 or more career PA.

Ahhhh, Harold Baines

I just had to go there, throwing Harold Baines’ name out there in the previous segment in a piece about Dave Parker’s worthiness for a plaque in Cooperstown. When interviewed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette during the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Pirates’ 1979 World Series title, Parker was asked about Baines. His response: “he’s no Dave Parker.”

By the eye test, the Cobra is correct. Baines at his best was never remotely as good a baseball player as Parker was at his best. But Baines had a long, consistent career and came much closer to the 3,000 hit milestone (with 2,866 knocks) than Parker did. Baines also may have made it to 3,000 if not for the two player strikes of 1981 and ’95 that cost him valuable playing time.

Also, with no disrespect meant to Baines, his selection by the “Today’s Game” committee in December 2018 was an aberration and highly influenced by the presence of his former manager Tony La Russa and Jerry Reinsdorf on the 16-man committee that cast the ballots. We can’t use Baines as a benchmark for every player who was better. Throughout the history of the Hall of Fame, there have been players elected by various incarnations of the Veterans Committees who were not of the same caliber as others who were overlooked. It’s one of those imperfections about the Hall of Fame that we all have to live with.

Conclusion

Dave Parker had some flashes of brilliance and had an excellent, long career, but it toto he was not a Hall of Fame player. He clearly played at a Cooperstown-worthy level in the late 1970s but, since he wasn’t able to sustain that level of play, he falls a little short.

The years in which most Hall of Famers build their Cooperstown resumes (their age 29 to 32 seasons), Parker was in the lower tier of all major leaguers. In 1975 and from 1977 to 1979, he was one of the best players in the game. From 1980 to 1991 he was a mostly solid, occasionally excellent, sometimes below par player but nothing resembling a Hall of Famer. Those four great years in the ’70s simply aren’t enough to justify a plaque in Cooperstown.

But that’s just my opinion. Parker did get those 7 votes on the 2020 Modern Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. That bespeaks a baseline level of support among current Hall of Famers and baseball executives. If another committee in the future sees fit to induct Dave Parker, the Hall will certainly not be diminished by his presence.

If you have a differing viewpoint, please share in the “thoughts, comments, snide remarks” section at the bottom of the page. What makes the Hall of Fame debates so fun is that intelligent people will reach different conclusions from the same facts.

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