The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson, who won 222 games in his 17 years pitching Major League Baseball, is on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame ballot for the second time this month. Earlier this year, in his first turn on the ballot, Hudson got 5.2% of the vote, barely above the 5% minimum required to appear on future ballots. Although it’s highly unlikely that Hudson will ever get close to the 75% voting support that is required for a plaque in baseball’s shrine in Cooperstown, New York, the 6’1″, 175-pound right-hander has a Hall of Fame case that, on the first glance, is quite reasonable.

If Hudson is able to get over 5% of the vote to retain his eligibility again, he’ll be one of the top three starting pitcher candidates in 2023, given that Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling will have finished their ten years of eligibility. With Mark Buehrle the only other starter with a strong resume to make his ballot debut in 2021 and no strong candidates debuting in 2022 or 2023, a year from now Hudson and Buehrle could be a part of a lonesome trio of starters who are remotely worthy of consideration for Cooperstown, the third being Andy Pettitte.

If you’re a Hall of Fame voter who has room to spare on your ballot, I’d encourage you to strongly consider giving a checkmark to Hudson. His case is strong enough that he deserves a multi-year examination. With borderline candidates, a player’s case can become more compelling with the context of the passing years.

Cooperstown Cred: Tim Hudson (SP)

2nd year on the ballot in 2022 (received 5.2% of the vote in 2021)

• Athletics (1999-2004), Braves (2005-13), Giants (2014-15)
• Career: 222-133 (.625 WL%), 3.49 ERA
• Career: 120 ERA+, 56.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time All-Star
• 4 times in the top 6 of Cy Young voting (runner-up in 2000)
• Top 10 in his league’s ERA 7 times
• Member of 2014 World Champion San Francisco Giants

(cover photo: WSB)

Tim Hudson: Early Career

Timothy Adam Hudson was born on July 14, 1975, in Columbus, Georgia. Columbus is a mid-sized city in the central-western part of the state, right across the Chattahoochie River from Alabama. He grew up in a small town called Salem, Alabama: the town’s most recently recorded population was 6,428. Hudson was a star at Glenwood School in Phenix City, AL but, at just 6’0″ and 160 pounds, he was considered too small to be a legitimate pitching prospect. As such, he was not drafted by any Major League team nor was he offered a college scholarship.

After two stellar seasons at a two-year college (Chattahoochee Valley Community College), he transferred to Auburn University, where he became a noticed star performer. As a senior, he was an All-American and SEC Player of the Year, thanks to a 15-2 record (2.97 ERA, 165 strikeouts) along with a .396 BA, 18 HR, and 95 RBI as an outfielder. Thanks to that stellar campaign, Hudson helped the Tigers to the 1997 College World Series. (Hudson was elected to the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame in 2018 and, today, is a member of Auburn’s coaching staff).

Thanks to his superb senior year at Auburn, Hudson was selected in the 6th round of the 1997 player draft by the Oakland Athletics, who decided to develop the two-way star as a pitcher, despite his size.

Hudson, in just his second full professional season, got off to a great start, going 7-0 with a 1.75 ERA between the Texas League (Midland, Texas) and the Pacific Coast League (Vancouver, British Columbia). He made his Major League Baseball debut with the A’s on June 8, 1999. Although it was an effort that yielded a no-decision (5 IP, 3 ER in an interleague game at San Diego), Hudson struck out 11 Padres in that debut.

Tim Hudson’s First Three Seasons in Oakland (1999-2001)

Tim Hudson, even as a rookie, quickly became the best starting pitcher for the Athletics. Featuring a good sinker, split-fingered fastball, slider, and changeup, Hudson quickly established his MLB bona fides after that opening outing. He went 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA in his next six starts and finished the campaign with an 11-2 mark and 3.23 ERA. Even though he was only with the A’s for two-thirds of the season, he finished 5th in the American League Rookie of the Year vote. By WAR, he was manager Art Howe’s third-most valuable player despite the short season.

Hudson followed up his outstanding rookie campaign with a 20-win season in 2000, giving him a second-place finish in the Cy Young balloting to future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez. Ironically, although this was the highest finish Hudson would ever have in the Cy Young vote, it wasn’t one of his best seasons overall, other than his final record of 20-6. After winning his first start, Huddy threw three clunkers (giving up 15 ER in 9 innings for 2 losses and a 15.00 ERA). Even though he had a 4.27 ERA at the break, he was 10-2, which gave him a berth on the All-Star team.

After his 19th start (on July 21st), Hudson had a 4.77 ERA but a 10-3 record, thanks to an average of 6.7 runs per game in support. He righted the ship with an identical 10-3 record but a much better 3.30 ERA in his final 13 starts. Thus, for the season, Hudson posted a 4.14 ERA, which would end up being the third-worst mark of his 17 seasons in the majors.

Even though he got to 20 wins thanks to overall run support of 6.4 runs/game, it’s a team game and A’s won 91 games, enough to capture their first A.L. West crown since 1992. (The A’s lost their A.L. Division Series matchup in 5 Games to the two-time defending champion New York Yankees, with Hudson giving up 3 ER in 8 IP in a losing Game 3 effort).

Hudson followed up his 20-win season with an 18-9 record in 2001 (with a 3.37 ERA), which put him in 6th place in the Cy Young vote. The Athletics became a powerhouse team in 2001, as sophomore hurlers Barry Zito and Mark Mulder developed into stars, giving Oakland a trifecta of top-flight starters. The trio combined for 56 victories, helping the A’s to a 102-60 record. That was good enough for another playoff berth but not the A.L. West title, thanks to the 116-win season by Lou Piniella’s Seattle Mariners. Up against the Yankees again in the ALDS, Oakland fell short again in 5 Games but Hudson announced himself to a national audience by out-pitching Pettitte in Game 3 with 8 innings of scoreless ball.

Embed from Getty Images

2002-04: Tim Hudson’s Final Three Seasons in Oakland

Hudson and the A’s continued their winning ways in 2002. Huddy went 15-9 with a 2.98 ERA (translating to a 145 ERA+ and 6.9 WAR, both career-bests at the time). Thanks in part to Zito’s Cy Young season (23-5, 2.75 ERA), the A’s won 103 games to take back the A.L. West crown. October was a disappointment again; the A’s lost in 5 to the Minnesota Twins. Hudson struggled in both of his starts, giving up 11 runs (6 earned) in 8.2 innings for a 6.23 ERA.

In 2003, his age 27 season, Hudson had what was arguably the best of his 17 years on the hill. Pitching for new manager Ken Macha (Howe had left to take over the New York Mets), Huddy went 16-7 with a career-best 2.70 ERA; his 165 ERA+ and 7.4 WAR were also the best marks of his career. For the effort, he finished 4th in the Cy Young voting. The A’s won the A.L. West by 3 games (with a 96-66 record) so it’s safe to say that he was indispensable to the team’s 4th straight playoff appearance. For A’s fans, however, October would remain frustrating as the team lost in 5 Games in the ALDS for the 4th straight time, this time to the Boston Red Sox.

Oakland finally missed the postseason party in Hudson’s final season in green and gold (2004). He went 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA while making his second All-Star squad, although he missed the game and six starts due to an oblique strain. With free agency looming at the end of 2005, the small-market A’s traded their star right-hander to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for three players (Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer, and Charles Thomas) who never made remotely meaningful contributions in Oakland.

2005-09: Tim Hudson Joins the Braves

Hudson enjoyed his time in Oakland and was sad to leave but the trade to the Braves was a nice consolation prize in that it was the team he rooted for in his youth. In early March, Hudson signed a 4-year, $47 million contract extension with the Braves, which was likely less than he could have commanded on the free-agent market and was called by some a “bargain.” As General Manager John Schuerholz noted, however, “in the real world, it’s a lot of money. Even in the make-believe world of baseball, it’s a lot.”

Hudson was used to being on a winning team and, in Atlanta, he joined a franchise that had won 13 straight N.L. East titles under future Hall of Fame manager Bobby Cox. The Braves, however, were on a downward trajectory. Ironically, he joined a team that had a poor NLDS streak of its own, having lost 3-2 in each of their 2002-04 Division Series matchups. From the great teams of the 1990s, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, and Andruw Jones were still there but Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were gone.

The 2005 Braves won their 14th straight N.L. East title, with Hudson settling in behind Smoltz as the team’s #2 starter. He went 14-9 with a 3.52 ERA in his maiden campaign at Turner Field. Given that the team won just 90 games (2 more than the Phillies), it’s easy to conclude that Huddy’s 14 wins (and 3.3 WAR) were crucial to keeping alive the Braves streak of participating in October baseball.

In Game 1 of the NLDS, Hudson was given the ball in a rematch against Pettitte (now with the Houston Astros). This time, the lefty from Louisiana bested the righty from Alabama; the Astros won 10-5 with Hudson giving up 5 ER in 6.2 IP. Hudson fared better in Game 4 (7 IP, 3 ER) against Brandon Backe but he got a no-decision in a contest Houston would win in 18 innings, sending the Astros to the NLCS.

The Braves’ winning ways ended in 2006, coinciding with Hudson’s worst season to date in baseball. In his age 30 season, he went 13-12 with a career-worst 4.86 ERA. He rebounded in 2007 with a 16-10 mark (3.33 ERA, 4.7 WAR) but the Braves still missed the playoffs.

Hudson continued his fine form in 2008 (11-7, 3.17 ERA, 3.0 WAR) but, in his 23rd outing, started feeling tightness in his forearm and elbow, causing him to come out of the game after 6 scoreless frames. It turned out he had torn his ulnar collateral ligament, requiring Tommy John surgery. After over a year of rehabilitation, Hudson returned in September 2009 and posted a 3.61 ERA in 7 starts.

Embed from Getty Images

2010-13: Hudson’s Final Years in Atlanta

After signing a three-year contract extension, Tim Hudson returned to his All-Star form in 2010, going 17-9 with a 2.83 ERA (138 ERA+, 5.8 WAR). He did in fact make his 3rd Mid-Summer Classic roster and finished 4th in the N.L. Cy Young voting. His efforts were also crucial to returning Atlanta to the postseason; the Braves won 91 games, beating out the San Diego Padres by one game for the N.L. Wild Card berth in Cox’s final season as the Braves’ skipper.

In order to make the playoffs, Cox needed to tab the veteran righty to win the 162nd game of the season (which he did). In the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, Huddy pitched brilliantly in his Game 3 start (7 IP, 0 ER) but received a no-decision as the Giants won the game (and the series).

Although not as dominant as he was in 2010, Hudson had another good season in 2011, going 16-10 with a 3.22 ERA (119 ERA+, 3.0 WAR). The team, however, under new manager Fredi Gonzalez, missed the playoffs by a single game, with star closer Craig Kimbrel blowing a potential win by Hudson in the 162nd and final game of the campaign.

Hudson turned 37 during the 2012 season: he still remained the team’s best starter, posting a 16-7 with a 3.62 ERA. The Braves returned to the playoffs but lost the first-ever N.L. Wild Card Game to the St. Louis Cardinals.

In his final campaign with the Braves, Hudson pitched reasonably well (8-7, 3.97 ERA) but suffered a season-ending injury on July 24th when the Mets’ Eric Young Jr. stepped on his right foot in a collision at first base, requiring surgery for a fractured ankle. It was a bitter end to his 9 seasons in Atlanta, one in which he won his 200th career game.

2014-15: Tim Hudson Joins the Giants

The Braves declined to offer Tim Hudson a qualifying offer so he tested the free-agent market for the first time at the age of 38. Hudson signed a two-year contract for $23 million with the San Francisco Giants, sending him back to the Bay Area to end his career.

Hudson started the 2014 season as Bruce Bochy’s #3 starter (behind Madison Bumgarner and Matt Cain) but, with Cain suffering an injury-plagued campaign, the veteran righty settled in as the Giants’ second-best starting pitcher. Hudson won his first two efforts for the Giants, propelling him to a spectacular start: he went 6-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his first 11 outings. He slipped a bit in his next seven starts but still finished the first half of the season with a 2.87 ERA, which was good enough for his 4th and final All-Star nod.

Even though he was pitching for a team that had won two of the previous four World Series titles, Hudson’s return to the Bay Area was not met with the same kind of run support as he had enjoyed in his early seasons with the Athletics. Even while pitching for a team that won 88 games, Hudson finished the season with a 3.57 ERA but a 9-13 record, thanks to lowly run support of 3.8 runs per game.

In 2014, 88 wins were good enough for an N.L. Wild Card spot. With Bumgarner on the bump, the Giants easily won the Wild Card Game (8-0) against the Pittsburgh Pirates, setting up an NLDS matchup against the Washington Nationals. Jake Peavy had been acquired mid-season and was given the Game 1 start (a 3-2 Giants win), giving Hudson the Game 2 nod. In the last great outing of his career, Hudson tossed 7.1 innings of one-run ball (7 H, 0 BB, 8 SO). He got a no-decision in another 18-inning NLDS tilt; this time Hudson’s team was on the winning side as the Giants won it on a solo HR by Brandon Belt.

For the first time in his career, Hudson’s team made it to the LCS round of the playoffs. He got the Game 3 start against the St. Louis Cardinals. It was a mediocre effort (6.1 IP, 4 ER) but San Francisco won 5-4 in 10 innings and, ultimately, the series in 5 games, sending Huddy to his first Fall Classic.

With the Giants playing the Kansas City Royals, Hudson was the starter and loser in Game 3. The series ultimately went to a 7th game and Hudson got the ball. However, Bochy gave the 39-year veteran a short leash and pulled him in the 2nd inning. Bumgarner famously tossed 5 innings of scoreless relief on two days of rest to give the Giants the World Series title and Hudson his first and only ring.

Embed from Getty Images

In what would be his final campaign (in 2015), Hudson went 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA. Having turned 40 years of age in July, Hudson decided in September that 2015 would be his final MLB campaign. He retired after the season with 222 wins, a .625 winning percentage, 3.49 ERA, and a robust 120 ERA+.

The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Tim Hudson

In Tim Hudson’s nine seasons in Atlanta, he only had one campaign (in 2010) in which he made the All-Star team and received any Cy Young consideration. In his final two seasons (in San Francisco) he went 17-22 with a 3.91 ERA. In the biggest game of his life (Game 7 of the 2014 World Series), he was pulled in the 2nd inning and it was the Giants’ young gunslinger (Bumgarner) who ultimately saved the day. For these reasons, it’s hard to remember that Hudson started his career looking like a guy who might wind up with a plaque in Cooperstown someday.

Overall, in his first three MLB seasons (in Oakland), Hudson went 49-17 to go with a 3.61 ERA (translating to an ERA+ of 125, which is 25% above league average). With the neon lights caveat that 500 innings is a ridiculously low minimum standard, Hudson’s career winning percentage of .742 was (at the time) the very best in Modern Baseball history (since 1900). It’s also the 2nd best in the overall history of baseball, behind only 1870s pioneer Al Spalding, who went 252-65 (.795) with the Boston Red Stockings and Chicago White Stockings. That means it was the best since 1877, a span of 124 years.

What happens if you pose a more reasonable question: in the modern game, who has the best winning percentage by the end of their third season (with a 500-inning minimum)? In this case, his .742 winning percentage for his first three campaigns is still the 4th best since 1900, bested only by Juan Guzman, Sal Maglie, and Dwight Gooden.

Of course, we’re all enlightened today, knowing that win-loss percentages are subject to the vagaries of run support and the quality of one’s team. Even so, 4th best since 190 for a three-year player means that you’re off to a really good start.

Taking Stock: Hudson’s Cooperstown Progress after Six Years in Oakland

Needless to say, nobody goes into the Hall of Fame based on what they did in three seasons but a player’s first six campaigns do start to reveal whether that player is on a Cooperstown path. How do Hudson’s first six seasons measure up? Well, just to stick to winning percentage for a moment, Hudson’s .702 W-L% through his first six campaigns are the 5th best in Modern Baseball history (with a minimum of 1,000 IP). He’s behind Johnny Allen, Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (who passed away last fall), Gooden, and Vic Raschi.

Allen is the name that most won’t know. He spent his first four seasons with the New York Yankees from 1932-35 and his 5th and 6th campaigns with the Cleveland Indians: his 15-1 campaign in ’37 with the Tribe was what put him on top of this list. Anyway, for the cynics who would bark that Hudson got tons of run support and pitched for great teams, three of the men who are above him on this list pitched for the perennial pennant-winning Yankees. Gooden is the exception but the New York Mets of his first six seasons (1984-89) won the most games in all of baseball.

Of course, Hudson did receive solid run support during his time in Oakland (5.2 runs per start) but when you’re 2nd best in a statistic related to winning and losing over the course of 104 years, credit must be given. (Ford, incidentally, got 5.4 runs per game of support in his first six campaigns).

Tim Hudson’s Run Prevention in Oakland

Let’s acknowledge that run support and quality teammates played a role in Hudson’s superlative winning percentage and expand the analysis to run prevention. Because Huddy’s pitched in a high-offense era, his basic ERA would disadvantage him from a comparative analysis perspective so let’s use ERA+ (which is neutralized for the specific year, park effects, and in which 100 is average).

Hudson’s ERA+ through the end of his sixth MLB campaign was 136 (36% above average). That’s a superb number, tied with Hall of Famer Bob Feller for the 22nd best among the 429 hurlers to log 1,000 or more IP through their first six seasons (since 1900). Ahead of Hudson and Rapid Rob on this list are 12 Hall of Famers and big names like Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw. Here’s the full list:

WP Table Builder

What does WAR (Wins Above Replacement) have to say? A lot, actually. Since WAR is a “counting stat” (just like wins), no minimum innings requirement is needed. If we look just at each player’s first six MLB seasons, Hudson’s 31.0 WAR is the 28th best for all 10,416 pitchers who have toed the rubber since 1900. There are 15 Hall of Famers with a better number on the list but also 12 with a better first six campaigns who are not in the Hall (including Clemens and the still-active Kershaw and Jacob deGrom).

Who are the others above Huddy on the “first six years” WAR list? Some are names current fans are likely to know: Brandon Webb, Dave Stieb, Bret Saberhagen, Teddy Higuera, and Frank Tanana. The others are from the first 25 years of the 20th century: Nap Rucker, Noodles Hahn, Eddie Rommel, and Russ Ford.

Anyway, it states the obvious that six years is not a long enough sample to determine any player’s Cooperstown worthiness. The point I’m beating to death here is that Hudson looked like he might be a future Hall of Fame pitcher when he was traded to the Braves. To put a period on this section, here is how Hudson’s first six years stack up against all of the 65 Cooperstown-enshrined starting pitchers (excluding those from the Negro Leagues, for whom the statistical record is incomplete).

WP Table Builder

Embed from Getty Images

Tim Hudson’s Atlanta and San Francisco Years

Now that we’ve established that Tim Hudson’s progression towards a plaque in Cooperstown was ahead of the majority of those already enshrined in the Hall of Fame we must acknowledge that his momentum slowed and then stalled in Atlanta.

A simple Oakland-to-Atlanta-to-San Francisco comparison shows the disparity:

• 1999-2004 (with Oakland): 92-39 (.702), 3.30 ERA (136 ERA+, 31.0 WAR)
• 2005-2013 (with Atlanta): 113-72 (.611), 3.56 ERA (115 ERA+, 24.1 WAR)
• 2014-2015 (with San Francisco): 17-22 (.436), 3.91 ERA (92 ERA+, 1.5 WAR)

As you can see, Hudson’s winning percentage in Atlanta was still really good (he still pitched well but also benefitted from 5.0 runs per game in support). His ERA+ (115) was solid but only 13th best among the 36 MLB pitchers with over 1,400 IP from 2005-13.

Huddy was in toto a solid #2 or #3 starter with the Braves but not a true ace. On the “star meter,” he was getting surpassed by many of his contemporaries, notably Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, and Cliff Lee.

And, of course, in his final two years, when thrust into the spotlight of a team that had won the 2010 and ’12 World Series titles, Hudson pitched in the shadow of his younger, more celebrated teammate (Bumgarner). Interestingly, the guy who was used to getting good run support didn’t get it from his Giants teammates, who scored just 3.9 runs per game in his starts (an even-worse 3.4 runs per 9 IP).

What Hudson did in his final 11 MLB campaigns was to build upon his career numbers but he never again was the kind of star that he was in Oakland.

How Do Tim Hudson’s Career Numbers Measure Up?

First, to recap, Tim Hudson finished his career with a 222-133 record (.625) with a 3.49 ERA and WAR of 56.5. We’ve already established that Huddy’s career win percentage is a huge asset. His career ERA+ (120) is also a significant asset. It’s better than the mark posted by many notable Hall of Famers, including Warren Spahn, Bert Blyleven, Tom Glavine, Gaylord Perry, Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, Fergie Jenkins, Robin Roberts, Nolan Ryan, and Don Sutton. What differentiates those men, however, is that they all pitched well over 4,000 innings and won 280 games or more.

Here’s an interesting list, one offered on Twitter by Baseball Reference’s Adam Darowski: it’s a list of pitchers who aren’t in the Hall of Fame who have 220 or more career wins and a career ERA+ of 120 or more:

1. Roger Clemens (354 Wins, 143 ERA+)
2. Justin Verlander (226 Wins, 129 ERA+)
3. Will White (229 Wins, 121 ERA+)
4. Tim Hudson (222 Wins, 120 ERA+)

We know why Clemens and Verlander aren’t in the Hall. As for White, he was a 19th-century hurler, the brother of Hall of Famer Deacon White. He spent more than half of his career in the inferior American Association. White got to his 222 wins by winning 30 or more games five times (including three seasons of 40+ wins). There are many other 19th-century pitchers who posted numbers that look ridiculously great to us today because the game was so different.

This is a good list for Hudson but if you loosen the minimums by just a small bit (to 210 wins and a 115 ERA+), it adds 11 more names to the list (including Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte), which makes it less impressive.

Here’s another good list for Hudson, a simple one. It’s a list of how many seasons a pitcher won at least 10 games while posting an ERA+ that’s at least 10% better than the league average (110 or better).

Seasons since 1969 with 10+ wins and an ERA+ of 110 or better:

• Roger Clemens (16)
• Greg Maddux (15)
• Bert Blyleven (14)
• Tom Seaver (13)
• Tom Glavine (13)
• Randy Johnson (12)
• Pedro Martinez (12)
• Kevin Brown (12)
• Tim Hudson (12)

That’s a list of Hall of Famers, one who would be (Clemens) if not for PEDs, Kevin Brown, and Hudson. Brown (211-144, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, 68.2 WAR) was a first-ballot casualty on the BBWAA ballot of 2011 (with just 2.1%) of the vote. He’s a strong candidate for Cooperstown but has the black mark of being named in the Mitchell Report on steroids.

Anyway, if you expand this list to go all the way back to 1900, all of the additional names belong to Hall of Famers. In toto, only 20 pitchers since 1900 have at least 12 seasons with 10 wins and a 110 ERA+.

These are great lists to be on but, in this case, if you raise the standards just a bit (to 12 wins and a 120 ERA+), Hudson only has 7 matching seasons, and it’s a bigger list of 51 pitchers since 1900 who have done the same or better.

Tim Hudson’s Workload

Hudson tossed 3,126.2 innings in his career. If you compare his career ERA+ to Cooperstown-enshrined starting pitchers who have less than 3,500 career IP, there are only eight who had an ERA+ of less than 120: Bob Lemon, Joe McGinnity, Chief Bender, Jack Chesbro, Vic Willis, Jesse Haines, Rube Marquard, and Catfish Hunter. Of those eight, six were Veterans Committee selections (many of whom are looked at dubiously today). From that list, only Lemon and Hunter were elected by the BBWAA. Lemon missed significant time at the start of his career due to his service in the Navy during World War II while Catfish had a Cy Young and five World Series rings to bolster his resume.

Generally speaking, starters with a smaller volume of work have been expected to produce at a higher level in order to make it to Cooperstown. Recent examples include Pedro Martinez (2,827.1 IP, 219 Wins, 154 ERA+) and Roy Halladay (2,749.1 IP, 203 Wins, 131 ERA+). On the current ballot, Curt Schilling’s numbers (3,261 IP, 216 Wins, 127 ERA+) are significantly superior to Hudson’s, not to mention his three rings and WAR of 80.5.

And so Huddy’s 120 ERA+ looks good in a vacuum but not as much so when you consider his lighter career workload. However, because of the ever-increasing bullpen use and strict pitch counts, all 21st-century starting pitchers are going to have to deal with career innings totals that are comparatively lower than those tossed by 20th-century pitchers.

How Tim Hudson Compares to His Contemporaries

Hudson was born in 1975. Among pitchers born in 1970 and later, his 222 wins are the 5th most (behind Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, and Justin Verlander). As the years go by, those 222 victories are going to look better and better.

His career W-L% (.625) is excellent but just the 9th best among the 16 pitchers with at least 175 wins who were born in 1970 and beyond: he’s behind Kershaw, Martinez, Max Scherzer, Halladay, Verlander, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, and Pettitte.

Likewise, his 120 ERA+ is solid but gets lost in the shuffle of his fellow hurlers who were born in the ’70s or ’80s. There are 53 pitchers born in 1970 or later who have thrown 2,000 or more innings: Hudson’s 120 ERA+ is 11th best. He’s behind Kershaw, Martinez, Santana, Scherzer, Halladay, Verlander, Roy Oswalt, Zack Greinke, Price, and Cole Hamels. He’s barely ahead of Wainwright, who has a career ERA+ of 119.

There is a pattern to these lists: on every one Hudson looks very good but so do a lot of other pitchers.

In case you’re wondering why I brought up pitchers born in 1970 and beyond, one reason is that mlb.com’s Mike Petriello noticed that there’s a dearth of Hall of Fame-caliber starting pitchers who were born in the 1970s. Petriello noted that Martinez and Halladay are the only starting pitchers born in the 70s who have a plaque in Cooperstown. Additionally, for players born in 1980 or later, there are only two strong candidates coming down the BBWAA pike in the next five years (CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez in 2025).

All of this is why “long-haulers” who tossed 3,000+ innings (Hudson, Buehrle, Pettitte) might start looking better in the upcoming years. (More on this in the upcoming segment entitled “is 3,000 the new 4,000?”).

The 2022 BBWAA Ballot

How does Tim Hudson compare to his contemporaries on the 2022 ballot, Schilling, Pettitte, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, and Tim Lincecum? Schilling, who got 71% of the vote last year, is on his 10th BBWAA ballot. Pettitte is on the ballot for the fourth time; Buehrle, like Hudson, is making his 2nd appearance. Peavy and Lincecum, Hudson’s teammates with the Giants, are on the ballot for the first time (and, almost certainly, the only time).

WP Table Builder

When you look at the numbers, Schilling clearly reigns supreme. Frankly, he’d be in the Hall of Fame already if he didn’t annoy people so much with his political views and Twitter feed.

The other three look fairly close, with Pettitte having a big edge in wins and strikeouts. Obviously, Pettitte also has a big edge in his postseason statistics but that’s based more on opportunity than pitching excellence.

Pettitte’s 256 career wins are a lot in the modern game (the most for anyone born in the last 50 years) but, considering that every team he ever pitched for had a winning record, it’s fair to suggest that the total is inflated due to being a Yankee for so long and an Astro before the team went through a total rebuild.

(One final note on these numbers: there are different websites that calculate a player’s value in terms of Wins Above Replacement. Most of the time on Cooperstown Cred, I use the Baseball-Reference version of WAR. For whatever it’s worth, FanGraphs gives Pettitte a career WAR of 68.2 compared to 52.3 for Buehrle and 48.9 for Hudson).

The Postseason Record

Also, when it comes to putting fame into the Hall of Fame, Pettitte is way ahead of Hudson and Buehrle. This is due to his good fortune to be on five teams that won World Series titles and three others that lost in the Fall Classic. Take a look at the postseason records of these hurlers:

• Andy Pettitte: 19-11, 3.81 ERA
• Tim Hudson: 1-4, 3.69 ERA
• Mark Buehrle: 2-1, 4.11 ERA

Notice that Hudson’s ERA is actually better than Pettitte’s. That’s because the tall Yankees/Astros lefty had a bunch of clunkers to go with a lot of gems. While Hudson got a lot of run support in most of his regular-season campaigns, that support ended in October; his teams scored 3.5 runs per game in his 13 postseason starts.

Is 3,000 the New 4,000?

Circling back to the top of innings pitched, there is one final factor that is in Tim Hudson’s favor and one that makes me hope that he sticks around on the BBWAA ballot for many more voting cycles. As the years go by, Hudson’s 3,126.2 career innings pitched look better and better. If we use the beginning of the Wild Card era (1995) as a line of demarcation, there are 48 pitchers in all of Major League Baseball whose careers started in 1995 or later who have logged at least 2,000 innings in their career. Of those 48, only seven have managed at least 3,000 IP.

Barring an unexpected setback from his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Verlander will become the 8th to 3,000 early in 2022; he currently has thrown 2,988 IP. So, who are the seven hurlers to post 3,000 innings or more? Here is the list:

WP Table Builder

On this list, it’s clear that the best pitcher is Zack Greinke. I’m convinced that he’s destined for Cooperstown. I feel similarly about Sabathia, for a great many reasons articulated here. But as for the other five, it’s pretty obvious that the trio of Pettitte, Buehrle, and Hudson are significantly superior to Bartolo Colon and especially to Livan Hernandez.

Now, before you bark, “1995 was only 26 years ago, what about all of the active pitchers who will pass 3,000 IP in the next few years,” let’s take a look at that. We’ve already pointed out that Verlander will join this list soon and he’ll be an easy choice for the Hall of Fame five years after he retires. So, who else is there? This is a list of the active leaders in innings pitched among those who have yet to reach the 3,000 mark, along with the age they’ll be for the majority of 2022:

• Justin Verlander (2,988.0 IP, age 39 in 2022)
• Jon Lester (2,740.0 IP, age 38)
• Max Scherzer (2,536.2 IP, age 37)
• Ervin Santana (2,486.2 IP, age 39)
• Clayton Kershaw (2,454.2 IP, age 34)
• Adam Wainwright (2,375.2 IP, age 40)
• David Price (2,103.1 IP, age 36)
• Johnny Cueto (2,034.1 IP, age 36)
• Madison Bumgarner (2,034.0 IP, age 32)

On this list, besides Verlander, Lester has a chance but seems to be running out of gas (4.67 ERA from 2019-21). Scherzer seems like a good bet, and he’ll have a plaque in Cooperstown five years after he hangs up his cleats. Kershaw, another lock for the Hall, could do it but he doesn’t seem like he’ll last long enough. The only other name on the list who looks like a decent bet to make it to 3,000 IP is Bumgarner simply because he’s still relatively young.

The point of this boring story is that the 3,000+ IP logged by Hudson (along with Pettitte and Buehrle) is looking better and better in the 21st-century game. The headline at the top of the segment asked “is 3,000 the new 4,000?” If you look at the starting pitchers who debuted from 1969 (the beginning of the LCS era) until 1994 (before the expanded playoffs), there are seven pitchers who posted at least 4,000 IP and a whopping 26 who logged 3,000 or more compared to zero starters with 4,000 IP and only seven with 3,000+ among those whose careers began in 1995 and beyond.

The goalposts for starting pitchers are shifting. It’s why I’d like to see Hudson, Pettitte, and Buehrle last their full ten years on the BBWAA ballot so that we see how their numbers stand up to the test of evolving standards for 21st-century workloads.

Final Thoughts

Anyway, despite the previous section, for now, I consider Tim Hudson to have had a career that falls short of one that is worthy of a plaque in the Hall of Fame. That’s no slight against what he did accomplish. Hudson, though rarely dominant, was a reliable (and often way above average) starter for most of his 17 years in baseball.

When analyzing a player’s Cooperstown credentials, I generally try to answer three questions:

1. How do those player’s statistics compare to the large swath of already-inducted Hall of Famers?
2. How does the player’s statistical resume compare to his contemporaries?
3. Are there extra factors (awards, peak dominance, postseason excellence) that enhance the record in a meaningful way?

When looking at Hudson’s record, he is clearly below the average standard of Hall of Fame starting pitchers (with the caveat that those standards are changing). Even so, he does fall short of many of his contemporaries. His career got off to an excellent beginning in Oakland but he wasn’t considered one of the game’s top 2 or 3 pitchers. In his Atlanta/San Francisco years, he was a solid rotation option but only twice an All-Star.

Hudson never won a Cy Young Award and there’s no evidence that he deserved one. He only received Cy Young consideration four times and only one other time (in 2002) did he appear to deserve at least some down-ballot votes. He only made four All-Star teams and only once (in 2003) can one reasonably conclude that he deserved to go but didn’t get the nod.

He was in the top 10 of his league’s ERA in 7 different seasons (that’s quite good) but only in the top 3 once (he was 2nd in the A.L. in 2003).

I don’t see him as a Hall of Famer right now but reserve the right to change my mind. And, to repeat what I wrote at the top of the piece: if you’re a BBWAA writer who has room on your ballot (which likely means you don’t vote for PED-linked players), I’d strongly consider a “yes” vote for Hudson to help ensure he remains on future ballots (players need 5% or more to stick around for future ballots). He may start to look more compelling as the years pass.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Embed from Getty Images