The Hall of Fame Case for Mel Stottlemyre — by James Beemer

Former New York Yankees pitcher Mel Stottlemyre made his Major League Baseball debut in August 1964. He helped the Yankees win a remarkable 15th pennant in the span of 18 seasons. His rookie season also represented the last of the Hall of Fame-caliber campaigns from Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford. Stottlemyre pitched from 1964-74, his career over at the age of 32, thanks to a torn rotator cuff.

And, thus, Stottlemyre had the “honor” of being the best player on the Yankees during their lean years of 1965-75 when the franchise did not participate in the postseason. Essentially, he was a bridge from the Mantle-Ford dynasty to the late 1970s dynasty of Munson, Nettles, Jackson, Randolph, Guidry, and Gossage.

Many baseball fans know Stottlemyre better as the longtime pitching coach of the New York Mets during their glory years in the 1980s and with the New York Yankees during their final dynasty of 1996-2003. Stottlemyre is also the father of two sons who became Major League Baseball pitchers; Todd Stottlemyre (who won 138 games over 14 MLB campaigns) and Mel Stottlemyre Jr., who appeared briefly in the bigs in 1990 and is the current pitching coach of the Miami Marlins.

Stottlemyre also debuted during one of the greatest “golden ages” of starting pitching in the history of baseball. A whopping 12 Hall of Fame starters had their rookie campaigns in the ten seasons between 1959 and 1968.

Because Stottlemyre’s career ended prematurely, he never got close to a spot in baseball’s Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. But, as James Beemer will argue as a guest author, Mel’s lack of longevity has obscured the brilliance of his 11 seasons on the mound.

Take a few moments to scan this “blind” look at the first ten seasons of the careers of eight starting pitchers, all of whom had rookie campaigns between 1963 and 1966. These eight starting pitchers are Stottlemyre plus Hall of Famers Steve Carlton, Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Palmer, and Catfish Hunter.

If you’re a baseball fan who remembers the 1960s or a historian who has studied the era, take a moment to try to guess which pitcher is which:

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The first seven players on the list all looked to have the building blocks of future Hall of Fame resumes. The eighth (Player H) began his career as a relief pitcher for three seasons, which suppressed his win, complete game, and shutout totals for his initial ten years in baseball.

I’ll reveal now that Player H was Phil Niekro, who went on to pitch until age 48 and win 318 games in 24 seasons.

Are you ready to see who fills in the other slots on the chart?

Here we go!

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As you can see, Mel Stottlemyre more than fit in with these seven future Hall of Famers during the first ten seasons of his career. Of course, the reason that these seven men have plaques in Cooperstown and that Stottlemyre doesn’t is that they pitched well beyond their 10th campaigns. All seven hurlers finished with significantly more than 200 wins, while Stottlemyre’s career ended with 164.

In this piece, Beemer will make the case of thinking about a player’s Hall of Fame qualifications differently. I have long been an advocate of a “bigger Hall,” and Beemer’s thesis focuses on a player’s ten full seasons of excellence (with ten full seasons often including 11 or 12 actual seasons since many players get mere “cups of coffee” in their debut years).

I’ve gotten to know Beemer over the years through our interactions on Twitter in the club of enthusiasts about baseball’s Hall of Fame. Although his theory is a relatively novel one, it’s certainly not without precedent for players to get plaques in Cooperstown based on ten full seasons of excellence. The most recent example is Minnesota Twins outfielder Tony Oliva, who only logged 11 full campaigns in his 15-year career, earning just 177 plate appearances in the other four seasons in which he appeared.

After Stottlemyre’s “Cooperstown Cred,” I invite you to enjoy Beemer’s work and research.

Cooperstown Cred — Mel Stottlemyre (SP)

• New York Yankees (1964-1974)
• Career: 164-139 (.541 WL%), 2.97 ERA, 152 Complete Games, 40 Shutouts
• Career: 112 ERA+, 40.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Won 20 or more games 3 times
• Four times in the Top 25 of MVP voting
• 23 years as an MLB pitching coach
• Won 5 World Series Championships as a pitching coach (1986 with Mets, 1996, 1998-2000 with Yankees)

(cover photo: Associated Press/Ron Frehm)

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Mel Stottlemyre Should Be in the Hall of Fame — by James Beemer

During the winter months, the hot stove leagues always have lively discussions. The Hall of Fame voting is an annual Donnybrook as fans of the various candidates argue the merits of each player.

A second recurring topic is what makes a player Hall-worthy. Comparing traditional statistics and modern analytics ramps up passion among fans, all trying to ensure great players are properly recognized.

A third topic is the infamous “What if?”. What numbers would Player X have accumulated if he had not been injured/lost time to the military/died?

I have participated in discussions on all three topics.  In doing so, I gained an appreciation for how others view those subjects. And, it has helped me frame my own views.  For you see, I believe there is a player who checks off the appropriate headers under all three topics. That player is former New York Yankees right-handed pitcher Mel Stottlemyre.

Mel Stottlemyre the Pitcher

Growing up as a New York Yankees fan during the late 1960s and early 1970s was painful at times. Division play did not start until 1969. The Yankees dynasties of the past 40 years had crumbled. The offense was weak, and the defense was barely adequate. Perhaps the only saving grace was the starting pitching.  Mind you, Yankee pitching during this period was seldom filled with flame throwers. Instead, the starting rotation was manned with pitchers who logged innings while trying to hold down the opposition’s offense. The bullpen was staffed with aging veterans in decline and wet-behind-the-ears youngsters in the colosseum that was the original Yankee Stadium.

Mel Stottlemyre was the best of the pitchers at this time. A native of Mabton, Washington, about halfway between Yakima and Kennewick in the middle of the state, Stottlemyre came up to the parent club on August 12, 1964, after being named International League Pitcher of the Year and leading the league in wins, ERA, and shutouts. The 6’1″ right-hander had an incredible sinker that effectively kept other teams from scoring.  Down the stretch, Stottlemyre went 9-3 with a 2.06 ERA and an ERA+ of 177 in leading the Yankees to the World Series. (Given the fact that the Bronx Bombers only edged the Chicago White Sox by one game in the American League, it’s indisputable that the Yankees would not have made it to the Fall Classic without the efforts of the 22-year-old rookie).

Even though he was a rookie in a rotation led by future Hall of Famer Whitey Ford, manager Yogi Berra trusted Stottlemyre to start three games in the 1964 World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, battling against the great Bob Gibson in Games 2, 5, and 7. Stottlemyre went 1-1 with one no-decision, with the loss coming in Game 7. He finished 25th in the AL MVP voting that year despite not making his Major League Baseball debut until August. Future glory beckoned.

Stottlemyre won 97 games in his first six seasons. This included three 20-win seasons, as well as a 20-loss season in 1966 on a team that lost 89 games. Mel won 15+ games in seven seasons, finishing with 164 victories. He had a career ERA of 2.97.

Stottlemyre received MVP votes in four seasons, with 10th place his highest finish. He was selected to five All-Star Games and appeared in four. He twice led the AL in Complete Games, led once in Innings Pitched, and once in Batters Faced. In three seasons Mel had a WAR above 5.0.

Stottlemyre was a Top 10 pitcher within several pitching categories over his career. Most notably, Stottlemyre was an innings eater. In his nine full seasons, he never pitched less than 251 innings. He even exceeded 300 innings once. He finished with 152 Complete Games for the 356 games he started.

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Opposing batters struggled to make contact with Mel’s sinkerball. They had a .240 Batting Average, a .303 On-Base Percentage, a .343 Slugging Percentage, and, a .264 BABIP.  The percentage of hits off Mel that went for extra bases was 24% compared to the MLB average of 27%.

One statistical category in which Stottlemyre really stood out was Shutouts; he tossed 40 in his career. He was in the Top 10 for Shutouts in eight of his 11 seasons. In 1971 and 1972, he tossed 7 shutouts each season. Of his 164 wins, 24.4% were by Shutout. That is a phenomenal rate on par with Walter Johnson, Grover Cleveland “Pete” Alexander, and Sandy Koufax and is the fifth best in MLB history for pitchers with at least 150 Wins.  The four pitchers ahead of Stottlemyre were all Dead-Ball era pitchers (before 1920). In 1971 and 1972, shutouts made up 43% and 50% of Mel’s victories, respectively.

Forty shutouts is a big number for the average Major League pitcher’s career, let alone a Hall of Fame pitcher. It is even more amazing when a career is cut short due to a rotator cuff injury to the pitching shoulder. Mel Stottlemyre had his pitching career end on June 7, 1974, because of that injury. This was in the days before major advancements in orthopedic surgery resurrected many pitching careers.

Besides being a great pitcher, Mel was an exceptional fielder for his position. For his nine full seasons, he finished in the Top 10 for Putouts (led three times), Range Factor/9 Innings (led once), and Range Factor/Game (led twice). He finished in the Top 10 for Assists eight times and led twice. In Fielding percentage, Mel was in the Top 10 four times and led twice. One could argue that had Jim Kaat not been an AL contemporary during his career, Mel may have had a few Gold Gloves to add to his resume.

Stottlemyre was a decent hitter who certainly helped his own cause. He had one game where he went 5 for 5. He also is the last AL pitcher to hit an inside-the-park grand slam. For his career, Mel added 2.4 to his career WAR for his hitting, batting .160 with six triples, seven home runs, and 57 RBIs.

Mel Stottlemyre the Pitching Coach

Mel Stottlemyre was a well-respected individual who was always sharing his pitching wisdom with other staff members. It was only natural that he was in demand to become a team’s pitching coach. He started as a roving minor league pitching instructor for the Seattle Mariners from 1977-1981.

Teaming with manager Davey Johnson, Stottlemyre next became the New York Mets’ pitching coach from 1984-1993, guiding that young staff to a World Series championship in 1986 and the NL playoffs in 1988. Under Mel’s tutelage, Dwight Gooden received the NL Rookie of the Year in 1984. The following year, Gooden had a season for the ages (24-4, 1.53 ERA), culminating in the 1985 NL Cy Young Award.

The Mets went from finishing 6th in the NL East in 1983 to either first or second place from 1984-1990. In 1991-1993, the Mets finished 5th, 5th, and 7th with an aging staff and unproven youngsters. Stottlemyre’s staffs were typically ranked in the Top 4 NL squads each season for Wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

“Everything I accomplished in the game was because of him. He taught me so much more than balls and strikes; I’ll miss him dearly.”

— Dwight Gooden (New York Mets 1984-94, New York Yankees 1996-97, 2000)

“When you were at your worst, Mel was at his best. He made you believe in yourself and feel good and then things would get better.”

— Ron Darling (New York Mets 1983-91)

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In 1994-95, Stottlemyre was the pitching coach for the Houston Astros. The Astros went from 3rd place in the NL West in 1993 to 2nd place in 1994 and 1995.  The 1994 squad was making substantial progress when the strike occurred.

Stottlemyre was given the opportunity by George Steinbrenner to come home in 1996 when he named Mel the Yankees pitching coach for manager Joe Torre. Stottlemyre finally had a staff combining veterans and talented youngsters. From 1996-2005, the Yankees staff had nine first-place finishes, six AL pennants, and four World Championships.

Gooden was reunited with Mel in 1996 and threw a no-hitter. David Cone (also a former New York Met) and David Wells threw perfect games in consecutive seasons. Stottlemyre contributed to the rise and development of the greatest relief pitcher of all-time (Mariano Rivera) and one of the Yankees’ greatest left-handed pitchers, Andy Pettitte. Roger Clemens won the AL Cy Young Award in 2001.

“He was more than a great pitcher and fantastic pitching coach. He was a father figure and touched so many in a positive way.”

— David Cone (New York Mets 1987-92, New York Yankees 1995-2000)

“I think about his smile, and his laugh even when I knew he wasn’t feeling well.”

— Roger Clemens (New York Yankees 1999-2003, 2007)

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Stottlemyre had to step down after the 2005 season due to health issues. He could not quite shake baseball and served as a roving pitching instructor for Arizona in 2007. The next year, he served as the pitching coach of the Seattle Mariners and finally retired after that season. Stottlemyre passed away on January 13, 2019, at age 77.

Mel Stottlemyre — What Might Have Been?

Many sportswriters and baseball fans have commented that Mel Stottlemyre came up with the Yankees either 10 years too late or 10 years too early. The offensive drought behind his pitching was noticeable and the fielding was adequate at its best.

A common question is what would have Mel’s record been if the Yankees just scored the MLB average number of runs per game.  The MLB average was 4.0 runs per game and Stottlemyre’s Yankees averaged 3.8 runs per game. In practice, it is assumed that an average MLB pitcher would have no better than a .500 Winning Percentage with average run support. Mel obviously performed better than that with a below-average offense.

“Tough Losses” (Ltuf on the “Advanced” pitching pages on Baseball-Reference) provides another way of looking at it. A “Tough Loss” is defined as a loss credited to a starting pitcher who tosses at least six innings while yielding no more than 3 earned runs (a Quality Start). Stottlemyre had 64 “Tough Losses” in 11 MLB campaigns.  The only Hall of Fame starting pitcher from the Live Ball Era (1920 and later) with more tough losses in his first 10 full seasons is Bert Blyleven, who had 65.

If Stottlemyre’s Yankees could have scored the MLB average runs/game, a reasonable assumption might be that Mel would have converted half of those tough losses to wins, which would add 32 Wins while subtracting 32 Losses. That would give Mel a career 196-107 record and a .646 winning percentage!  And, it would be in only 11 seasons! What if, indeed?

This brings up the other part of the typical “What If” argument – which I admit is pure speculation but listen to my reasoning. The average Hall of Fame starting pitcher from the Live Ball Era pitched for 19 seasons – eight more than Stottlemyre. Advances in rotator cuff surgery were still five years down the road when Mel’s career came to an end. The question is if Stottlemyre had a typical Hall of Fame starting pitcher career length, what would his numbers have looked like?  The pitching categories where one might be able to conjecture such numbers are: wins, shutouts, WAR, complete games, and, strikeouts.  Granted, Stottlemyre was not a strikeout pitcher. But his career strikeout total would more closely resemble a Cooperstown-enshrined Starter.

So, what might Mel’s numbers look like? I figure pitching for the late 1970s Yankees for six more seasons would add 15 wins/year, 4 shutouts/year, 4.0 WAR/year, 15 complete games/year, and, 125 strikeouts/year. When you calculate for that additional time, Mel would have 254 wins, 64 shutouts, 67.0 WAR, 240 complete games, and 1900-2000 Ks.  Is that more in line with a Hall of Fame Starting Pitcher?

(Note: this projection does not include my personal bias that pitching to Thurman Munson would have boosted those numbers even more. If you look at Mel’s numbers when Thurman caught, it does suggest there is some truth to that belief).

What Makes a Hall of Fame Pitcher?

Perhaps the greatest arguments in the hot stove leagues are the ones about who is a Hall of Fame player and what makes that player a Hall of Fame player. You hear fans bemoan the “deteriorating quality” of Hall of Fame inductees, often saying that it has become the Hall of the Very Good. Comparisons of new candidates are often paired up against the all-time greats. Some will only use career totals and allow no adjustments for career lengths. Others will argue for a five-year peak of accomplishments. Still others say it is unfair to compare middle infielder and catcher stats with those of outfielders and first basemen.

The National Baseball Hall of Fame at Cooperstown states a qualifying candidate must have participated in a minimum of ten Major League Baseball seasons. So, how do you treat starting pitching versus relievers? How do you treat coaches/scouts versus managers? If an individual has a significant career as both a player and a coach/scout/manager, should the candidacy evaluation take all elements into account?

I have given this some serious thought. A Hall-of-Fame caliber player is usually recognized at the beginning of his career when youthful energy and a free-from-injury body enable the player to perform at a high level. After that initial 10-year period, gained baseball knowledge, luck, individual genetics, and medical/therapeutic skills that contribute a significant amount of influence in career numbers compilation.

I have seen some advocates argue using a 10-year “Decade of Dominance” to compare the best 10 years of a player’s performance. I suggest that the approach lends some bias in favor of those with access to better treatments & medical assistance.

Equivalency of First Ten Seasons Excellence

I recommend instead using the “Equivalency of First Ten Seasons Excellence” as a gauge of who is performing at a Hall of Fame level.  In other words, how did a player perform in the equivalent of his first ten full seasons as a full-time player?  This lends itself to an apples-to-apples comparison between players. After that initial ten-year period, any additional stats accumulated could be used to enhance or diminish a player’s candidacy.

But, you can still readily see player trajectories toward Hall of Fame careers. Using Baseball-Reference.com, I compiled the first ten seasons equivalency for all 41 Live Ball Era (1920-present) Hall of Fame Starting pitchers and Mel Stottlemyre’s.

I want to add there are players currently in the Hall of Fame or who are considered Hall-worthy and did not immediately appear to be on that level.  Their cases did benefit from their abilities to keep going, improving, and succeeding such that at the end of their careers, the numbers did reflect their greatness.

So back to the question: what makes a Hall of Fame pitcher? A Hall of Fame pitcher is a dominating league leader who shuts down opponents, pitches substantially better than average pitchers, and gives his own team the best chance to win day after day.

Mel Stottlemyre’s 40 shutouts combined with opponents’ BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in play) against him all support the view that Mel was a dominating American League pitcher. Stottlemyre would finish in the Top 10 of many AL annual pitching and fielding statistics and led in several categories for some seasons. This despite the Yankees ranking near the bottom in the American League during a major part of Stottlemyre’s career. By keeping the opposition off base, you keep them from scoring. The fewer the runs scored, the better the odds are that your own team will score enough runs to win the game. Proof that Mel did everything he could to help his Yankees have their best chance at winning day after day.

The first graphic below demonstrates how Mel Stottlemyre pitched compared to the Major League Baseball average. His Quality Start % is noticeably better than the MLB average. His groundouts to flyouts ratio further shows how devastating Mel’s sinkerball was. He pitched more innings with less run support and was still better than the Major League average.

Below you see Mel Stottlemyre’s career numbers compared to the 41 Hall of Fame Starting Pitchers in the live-ball era for the first ten full seasons of the career – an Equivalency of Seasons Excellence (all data obtained from Baseball-Reference.com). Mel appeared in 11 seasons but his first and last seasons are the equivalent of one full season. For the Hall of Fame pitchers, I tried to match the equivalent time in seasons. For Dizzy Dean, I used all twelve seasons of his career.

First of all, the shutouts. Stottlemyre has a higher percentage of his wins earned via a shutout than all 41 MLB starting pitchers who debuted in 1920 or later (with a minimum of 150 wins). Here are Mel’s ranks in other key categories compared to the 41 hurlers enshrined in Cooperstown (remember, these are for the first ten seasons or ten-seasons equivalent):

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Editor’s Note: choosing the “equivalency of the first ten full seasons of a career” does involve some judgment calls by author James Beemer in terms of what seasons to “count” as a full or partial season. The spirit of the exercise is not to fully count as a full season a player’s late-season call-up to the majors.

Based on this review, Mel Stottlemyre certainly holds his own with these greats. He ranks in the top half for most categories. For some of his numbers, he is penalized because he pitched for a bottom-level team. WAR benefits those pitchers who are playing for teams near the top of the standings (the explanation for WAR at Baseball Reference.com does indicate this). Meanwhile, contemporaries got the benefit of pitching against the bottom-dwelling Yankees several times a year. It also appears being a power pitcher may impact some statistics in a more positive manner while being a groundball pitcher can negatively impact some statistics.

When you compare Stottlemyre’s results with his contemporaries, the results are particularly eye-opening. There are 15 starting pitchers who pitched at least five seasons when Stottlemyre also pitched and who are current members of the Hall of Fame. Both Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford only overlapped Mel’s career with three seasons. Plus, non-Hall members (and perennial Eras Committee candidates) Luis Tiant and Tommy John also overlapped Mel’s career.  Stottlemyre’s numbers are equal to or better than the average for this elite group of pitchers. Again, Stottlemyre’s forte was keeping the opposition off the basepaths so they couldn’t score and not letting the long ball beat him. A perfect example is this: Stottlemyre faced 170 batters when the bases were loaded and only gave up 3 grand slams!

The group of pitchers who debuted in the 1960s may be the greatest contingent to pitch in MLB for any one era. The averages for most statistical categories reflect that this group was harder to hit against and harder to score against. They gave a higher level of quality starts, giving their individual teams the best chance for victory. Mel Stottlemyre comes in at the midpoint for these superstars and is slightly above most at shutting down opponents and not letting the long ball beat him.

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So, to get back to the names listed in the prologue, here is how Mel Stottlemyre stacks up with the seven Hall of Famers who had rookie seasons between 1963 and 1966, using the Equivalency of First Ten Full Seasons framework.

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As you can see, Mel was pitching more quality innings and performing at a WAR 5 points better than half of them, all with less support from his teammates.

Next, let’s look at Stottlemyre in comparison with some other Hall of Fame pitchers who were contemporaries for at least three seasons:

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What really stands out here is that the Yankees’ ace was logging more innings and more quality starts than every one of this group, while playing for a less-supportive team. The comparison with Koufax is particularly eye-opening.

Finally, here is a look at how Stottlemyre stacks up against some of the most decorated Yankees starting pitchers in team history, including some who are not in the Hall of Fame.

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Stottlemyre is often regarded as one of the top five, even top two, right-handed pitchers in New York Yankees history, all while playing in the weakest era of Yankees history. Mel’s numbers match Gomez’s who played in the greatest era of Yankees history. Gomez (who was indeed a lefty) toed the rubber in the Bronx from 1930-42; the Yankees won seven pennants in those 13 seasons.

Mel Stottlemyre’s Hall of Fame Case: Additional Points

A criticism of the case of Mel Stottlemyre being a Hall of Fame pitcher is that he did not accrue much “Black Ink” or “Gray Ink” to support his case. While true, it should be noted that there are legitimate qualifiers. First, during Mel’s first three seasons, there was only one Cy Young Award. Dean Chance easily claimed it in Mel’s rookie season while Sandy Koufax was the unanimous winner in 1965 and 1966. In 1968, Denny McLain was the unanimous winner and shared the award in 1969 with Mike Cuellar.  Mel did receive votes for AL MVP in four of his 11 seasons which is the average for a Hall of Fame pitcher during the first 10 equivalent seasons. Stottlemyre also was a Top 10 performer in most pitching categories in his nine full seasons, leading on many occasions. The rotator cuff injury that ended his career prevented him from building on his ratings.

Stottlemyre certainly didn’t have an easy time. He often pitched on short days rest (< 4 days), taking the ball 144 times under these circumstances because the Yankees needed him to try and win. He rarely had extra time between starts with more than 4 days rest (56 times). As shown previously, Stottlemyre averaged 7.5 innings/game. He rarely got “Cheap Wins” (less than 6 IP, or gave up 3+ ER): he had only 13 of those. Stottlemyre seldom left the game with many runners on base (155 for his career) and of those, only 55 scored.

Conclusion:

When Mel Stottlemyre became eligible for the Hall of Fame in 1980, he got only 0.8% of the vote, being one and done. This was when voters were only looking at career numbers without any context. The Eras Committee (and any subsequent committees) should give serious consideration to inducting Stottlemyre as a player/pitching coach.

As a pitching coach, Stottlemyre has few equals. And his pitching career is on the same level as current Hall of Famers members based on apples-to-apples metrics. When you look at Stottlemyre’s numbers compared to a majority of the current Hall of Fame Starting Pitchers of the Live Ball Era, he more than favorably matches up. Mel’s shutouts total and shutout percentage of victories show that he dominated in a way seldom seen.

Stottlemyre cannot add to his numbers so comparing his stats to players who played six or more additional years does not seem proper. I think there can be two paths to Cooperstown; the first one just relies on total career stats. The other path is to look at if a player is performing at a Hall of Fame level for his first ten full seasons but fate prevented the ability to accrue more numbers.

A Hall of Fame caliber performance, to me, is still a Hall of Fame caliber performance and should be recognized as such. Add Stottlemyre’s pitching coach accomplishments as icing on the cake and he is a no-doubt Hall of Famer.

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