The One-and-Dones on the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

On Tuesday, Josh Rawitch, the president of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2025 ballot by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). An estimated 392 writers have cast ballots, checking up to ten names out of 28 candidates for the Hall of Fame.

If any of the candidates receive at least 75% of the votes, they’ll be on stage next summer in Cooperstown, New York, as newly minted members of the Hall, joining Dave Parker and Dick Allen, who were elected to the Hall on December 8th by the Classic Baseball Era Committee. (Allen will be inducted posthumously).

Half of the 28 candidates for Cooperstown are returning to the BBWAA ballot, having fallen short of 75% this January. The other half are on the ballot for the first time. Of the first-time candidates, Ichiro Suzuki is a mortal lock to make the Hall on his maiden try, while CC Sabathia appears likely to join him. Felix Hernandez and Dustin Pedroia, who both seemed destined for the Hall during their primes, will likely fall far short of 75% but will be back on the ballot in a year.

As for the other ten candidates, this is most likely the one and only ballot they’ll appear on. The Hall has a 75% rule for induction to the Hall, but it also has a 5% rule. Any candidate who appears on less than 5% of the writers’ ballots is excluded from future consideration by the BBWAA. Any player who gets between 5% and 74.9% will be back again in a year, with the exception of Billy Wagner. The hard-throwing lefty reliever is on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th and final time and appears likely to make the Hall. On Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Wagner is sitting at 84.7% of the early reported votes.

This piece is a tribute to those ten fine players who will almost certainly not be on the 2026 ballot: Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, and Fernando Rodney.

All ten players are currently below 5% on Thibodaux’s tracker, based on the first 170 reported votes. Three players, however, at least have a glimmer of hope. Martin has received seven votes so far (4.1%), McCann has six votes (3.5%), and Kinsler has earned four votes (2.4%). The other seven players have yet to receive even one vote in favor of their Cooperstown candidacy.

All ten players had superb careers but either didn’t sustain their early excellence or were not quite dominant enough to be Hall-worthy. Here is a recap and tribute to their careers.

Cooperstown Cred: Russell Martin (C)

• Dodgers (2006-10, 2019), Yankees (2011-12), Pirates (2013-14), Blue Jays (2015-18)
• Career: .248 BA, .349 OBP, .397 SLG, 191 HR, 771 RBI, 1,416 Hits
• Career: 101 OPS+, 38.8 bWAR (Baseball-Reference), 54.5 fWAR (FanGraphs)
• 4-time All-Star, won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award in 2007

How many of you among my readers took a quick look at Russell Martin’s “Cooperstown Cred” and said to yourselves, “That’s a Hall of Famer.” Probably none, unless Jay Jaffe is reading.

Due to his on-base ability, superior fielding, and pitch-framing skills, Jaffe has argued that Martin is worth a checkmark on his Hall of Fame ballot. Jaffe is the most prolific writer about the Hall of Fame, and his argument is compelling; I’ll get back to it in a moment.

Born in York, Canada, about 100 kilometers south of Toronto, Martin was drafted in 2000 by the Montreal Expos but did not sign. After two years in college, he was drafted as a 3rd baseman by the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the build of a backstop (5’10”, 215 pounds), he was moved behind the plate in 2003.

Martin was 23 years old when he made his MLB debut in May 2006, filling in for the injured Dioner Navarro. After finishing 9th in the Rookie of the Year, Martin looked like a two-way star in the making in 2007, when he slashed .293/.374/.469. He hit 19 HR with 87 RBI, posting a 116 OPS+ and 5.6 WAR (per Baseball-Reference). For his efforts, he was awarded an All-Star berth as well as the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award.

Martin was an All-Star again in 2008 but tailed off a bit overall (13 HR, 69 RBI, 108 OPS+, 3.9 WAR).

In his final two years with the Dodgers and two seasons with the New York Yankees, Martin was a below-average offensive player. He averaged a slash line of .236/.334/.368 (90 OPS+) with 13 HR and 49 RBI.

He had a strong season with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2013 (100 OPS+, 4.1 WAR), helping the Bucs to the postseason. He a pair of home runs in the Wild Card Game against the Cincinnati Reds, giving the Pirates their first postseason victory in 21 years.

Martin was even better in 2014 (.290/.402/.430, 11 HR, 67 RBI, 135 OPS+, 5.7 WAR).

Martin went home to Ontario in 2015, signing with the Toronto Blue Jays. Although his average and OBP dipped (.240 BA, .329 OBP), he regained his power stroke, clubbing a career-best 23 HR with 77 RBI. Martin spent three more increasingly less productive years with the Blue Jays before rejoining the Dodgers in 2019 for his final campaign.

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OK, I’ll get to Jay Jaffe’s arguments in favor in a moment, but let’s first look at Martin’s offensive numbers (and WAR per Baseball Reference) compared to six other top backstops to debut in the 21st century.

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All of the other six players have something going for them that Martin doesn’t.

• Joe Mauer was an MVP and an elite hitter at a premium position, with a .306 career batting average. He’s already a Hall of Famer, elected in 2024.
• Buster Posey won a Rookie of the Year and MVP Award, hit .302 in his career, and was the best overall player on a three-time World Series Champion. He’ll be on the 2027 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.
• Yadier Molina was a 10-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove winner, and two-time World Series Champion. Yadi is eligible for the BBWAA ballot in 2028.
• J.T. Realmuto has a pair of Gold Gloves, three Silver Sluggers, and is only 33 (he’s still playing), so he has time to build his resume.
• Salvador Perez is still active as well, is a 9-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove winner, 5-time Silver Slugger, and was the MVP of the 2015 World Series.
• Brian McCann, who, like Martin, is on his first BBWAA ballot right now, is a 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger winner, and a World Series Champion.

The nuggets listed above are the elevator pitches that would resonate with any casual fan. Posey and Molina will likely join Mauer in Cooperstown, it’s too early to tell for Realmuto or Perez, while McCann is also likely to be one and done this year.

So, I’ll finish with the Jaffe argument: Russell Martin was an elite pitch-framer, resulting in the third-highest fWAR for catchers this century:

1. Buster Posey (57.9 fWAR)
2. Yadier Molina (55.6)
3. Russell Martin (54.5)
4. Joe Mauer (53.5)
5. Brian McCann (52.1)
6. Yasmani Grandal (40.0)

You’ll notice a big dropoff from #5 (McCann) to #6 (Grandal). Realmuto is 9th (34.8), while Perez barely registers (25th place with 18.3 fWAR) due to poor pitch-framing metrics, which overwhelm all of the positives that give him a 35.5 WAR with Baseball-Referernce.

“By multiple methodologies, Martin’s pitch framing was elite, not only reinforcing observations regarding his receiving skills despite his comparatively late conversion, but undergirding the view of him as a transformative player. I’ve been saying this since Martin and McCann neared the tail end of their careers: We simply can’t take a proper measure of 21st-century catchers without incorporating framing data.” 

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (December 18, 2024)

This is just a tiny snippet of Jaffe’s argument. You can read his entire case and profile here.

And, here are the views of other BBWAA members voting in favor:

“I, too, never thought Russell Martin was a Hall of Famer when he was playing. I covered him in New York, but it never once crossed my mind that I would one day vote for him to be enshrined in Cooperstown. I wonder if I simply didn’t recognize Martin’s impact as it was happening. It’s possible, of course, that I’m putting too much emphasis on his pitch framing ability, but it’s also possible that framing is so valuable, and so revered, that it’s going to determine the sport’s next technological breakthrough. Current data shows that Martin was on the leading edge of that skill set, and if your gut says that Yadier Molina (55.6 fWAR) is going to be a Hall of Famer in a few years, then you need to think long and hard about Martin (54.5).”

— Chad Jennings, The Athletic (Jan. 14, 2025)

“Most of Martin’s Hall-of-Fame case stems from his defense, which Fangraphs ranks as third-best all time among all catchers, behind only Yadier Molina and Ivan Rodríguez. Overall, Martin ranks 11th among all catchers in fWAR. Martin wouldn’t be the worst-hitting catcher in the Hall — Ray Schalk and Rick Ferrell had weaker bats — but Martin belonging in Cooperstown relies on the value of his pitch framing… By including framing data, Martin comes out ahead of (Buster) Posey, (Joe) Mauer and (Brian) McCann, and is just two-tenths behind Molina — who will be a top candidate soon. Dismissing Martin’s candidacy out of hand, as apparently so many voters have done, is a mistake.”

— David Brown, Facebook Post (Dec. 30, 2024)

I do not doubt the FanGraphs methodology regarding pitch framing, nor do I doubt that Martin was superior overall as a defensive catcher, but there are other statistics, too. Martin’s career Caught Stealing percentage (30%) is solid but only 3% better than the league average (while Molina’s was 40%, with Perez and Posey both at 33% and Realmuto at 32% (McCann’s is only 25%).

Maybe I’m a dinosaur, but I can’t look past the .248 batting average and the lack of any other numbers that leap off the page. Martin’s Hall of Fame case almost entirely relies on the pitch-framing data, which makes it impossible to compare him to any backstops from the 20th century.

As noted earlier, Martin does have a chance to return to the ballot next year. He’s currently at 4.1% on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, and he’ll need 5% to remain on the ballot in 2026. However, the tracker usually overestimates a player’s eventual vote tally. Additionally, the writers who choose to keep their ballots private tend to be “old school” writers who don’t use modern analytics to frame their voting decisions. Given that reality, I expect this will be Russell Martin’s only appearance on the ballot.

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Cooperstown Cred: Brian McCann (C)

• Braves (2005-13, 2019), Yankees (2014-16), Astros (2017-18)
• Career: .262 BA, .337 OBP, .452 SLG, 282 HR, 1,018 RBI, 1,590 Hits
• Career: 110 OPS+, 32.0 WAR
• 7-time All-Star, 6-time Silver Slugger Award winner

As noted previously, Brian McCann has a pretty decent elevator pitch for the Hall of Fame with his All-Star appearances and Silver Sluggers. His 282 career home runs are the 8th most for a catcher in baseball history (behind six Hall of Famers and Lance Parrish).

McCann is also one of four catchers ever to hit 20 or more home runs in at least 10 seasons (the others are Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Mike Piazza, and Yogi Berra).

That sounds pretty good, but it’s also a somewhat contrived stat. McCann did this despite never hitting more than 26 long balls in a season. Piazza hit over 30 dingers in 9 different seasons; Bench did it 4 times with a career-high of 45; Berra’s a little bit closer but still exceeded McCann’s career-high in 6 individual campaigns.

Like Russell Martin, McCann was an elite pitch framer: it’s notable that as a 21-year-old rookie, he became the personal catcher for future Hall of Famer John Smoltz.

A native of nearby Athens, Georgia, McCann was a regular presence in the Atlanta Braves lineup for eight years after his rookie campaign. From 2006-12, he averaged 135 games played and delivered consistent offensive production, averaging 22 HR with 83 RBI and a 119 OPS+.

Although injuries limited him to 102 games in 2013, he still delivered 20 HR and 57 RBI. McCann was an All-Star seven times with the Braves and won five Silver Slugger Awards.

McCann’s production was prolific enough that he earned a five-year, $85 million contract from the New York Yankees, at the time the biggest contract ever given to a backstop. A career .275 hitter (115 OPS+) with the Braves, McCann only hit .235 in three seasons in the Bronx, with a 99 OPS+. He did win his sixth Silver Slugger in 2015 when he clubbed 26 HR with 94 RBI, both career bests.

After a lackluster 2016 campaign, McCann was traded to the Houston Astros. The left-handed hitting McCann, in his age 33 season, split time at catcher with Evan Gattis and Juan Centeno during the regular season but started 17 out of the Astros’ 18 postseason tilts.

Although he hit just .175 with seven RBI in those 17 games, McCann was the guy manager A.J. Hinch trusted to guide his pitchers through the playoffs, with the end result being the first World Championship in the franchise’s history.

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McCann had an unproductive final year with Houston in 2018 (hitting .212 in 63 games) before spending his final MLB campaign back home with the Braves.

Five years ago (after he retired), I wrote about McCann and commented that, due to the pitch framing data that is now available, “the odds of the left-handed hitting backstop ever getting a plaque in Cooperstown are long but can no longer be dismissed out of hand.”

In that piece (updated for 2025), I went into great detail about the various defensive and, specifically, pitch-framing metrics available at the time.

As previously noted, FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe is the leading voice in giving Russell Martin time for more years of pitch-framing data to be gathered to see if his excellence holds up over time. He’s made the same argument for Brian McCann. Unfortunately for both backstops, Jaffe appears to be close to a solo act for these men; a chorus is not lining up.

“Time,” in essence, requires that Martin and/or McCann get at least 5% of the BBWAA not just this year but for many subsequent ballots. The fundamental problem remains that we’ll never be able to compare Martin’s and McCann’s pitch-framing skills to the great catchers of the 20th century.

Would catchers like Sherm Lollar, Del Crandall, Bill Freehan, Jim Sundberg, Bob Boone, Thurman Munson, or Lance Parrish become more Cooperstown-worthy if we had a greater insight into their game-calling or pitch-framing abilities?

Maybe this dinosaur just isn’t ready to see this light, but I’m clearly not the only one. He’s only earned six “yes” votes out of the first 170 writers to report their votes to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker. That’s only 3.5%, and, as noted in the Russell Martin comments, the writers who haven’t tipped their hands yet are the least likely to embrace the pitch-framing analytics.

For more on McCann’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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Cooperstown Cred: Ian Kinsler (2B)

• Rangers (2006-13), Tigers (2014-17), Angels (2018), Red Sox (2018), Padres (2019)
• Career: .269 BA, .337 OBP, .440 SLG, 257 HR, 909 RBI, 1,999 Hits, 243 SB.
• Career: 107 OPS+, 54.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Member of 2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

Ian Kinsler was an intense player. His longtime teammate with the Texas Rangers, Michael Young, said he “had fun, played hard, and talked a lot of —t. He’s such a good friend and one of my favorite teammates.” Kinsler, a leadoff hitter for most of his career, combined a good batting eye with power and speed. He was also an excellent defensive player and was recognized with a pair of Gold Glove Awards.

Kinsler is just one of four second basemen in baseball history to hit over 250 home runs and steal more than 200 bases. The others are Hall of Famers Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, and Craig Biggio. His 257 career homers are the 8th most in history for second sacker, behind Jeff Kent, Robinson Cano, Rogers Hornsby, Biggio, Sandberg, Morgan, and Chase Utley.

Kinser’s combination of power and speed for a good fielding second baseman gives him a legitimate case for Cooperstown. The problem is that he’s on the bottom end of those lists. On the 250 HR/200 SB list, if you lower the bar to 200 HR and 200 SB, you also get Brandon Phillips, an excellent player but not a Hall of Famer.

According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS formula (seen in Baseball Reference), Kinsler is the 21st-best second baseman in history and is ahead of seven Hall of Famers at the keystone. But, sometimes, timing is the essence of being on a Hall of Fame ballot. Kinsler is behind Utley (#12 by JAWS) and Dustin Pedroia (#19).

Utley has a much higher WAR, thanks to off-the-charts fielding metrics, while Pedroia has the accolades (a Rookie of the Year award, MVP, four Gold Gloves, and three World Series rings). Kinsler never even cracked the top 10 in the MVP voting, while Pedroia and Utley did it ten times.

Here is a comparison between the three.

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Any player who does a lot of things well but none spectacularly will struggle on the Hall of Fame ballot. It’s why superior second basemen from the 1970s and 80s (Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and Willie Randolph) have never gotten close to Cooperstown.

On this ballot, with more decorated first-time candidates (Pedroia, Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Felix Hernandez) as well as 14 returning candidates, it’s hard to see him eclipsing 5% of the vote.

For more on Kinsler’s Cooperstown credentials, please click here.

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Cooperstown Cred: Curtis Granderson (CF)

• Tigers (2004-09), Yankees (2010-13), Mets (2014-17), Dodgers (2017), Blue Jays (2018), Brewers (2018), Marlins (2019)
• Career: .249 BA, .337 OBP, .465 SLG, 344 HR, 937 RBI, 1,800 Hits
• Career: 113 OPS+, 47.2 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2011 A.L. Silver Slugger Award winner
• Led the A.L. in triples in 2007 (23) and 2008 (13)
• Led the A.L. in Runs (136) and RBI (119) in 2011

Curtis Granderson was a late bloomer who didn’t become a full-time player in the Major Leagues until August 2006, his age-24 season. A sweet-swinging left-handed hitter, Granderson combined power and speed and was a solid defensive centerfielder.

He became a well-known player to baseball fans as the leadoff hitter on the 2006 Detroit Tigers, who won the American League pennant that year under Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland. In the A.L. Division Series, he hit two home runs with five RBI. Although the Tigers fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series (Granderson hit just .095 in the Fall Classic),

In his second full season (2007) with the Tigers, he looked like he might be a Hall of Famer in the making. He hit .302 with 23 HR, 74 RBI, and 23 triples, the most in the Majors since Hall of Famer Kiki Cuyler’s 26 three-baggers in 1925. He finished 10th in the MVP voting that year, but by WAR (7.6), he was the second-best player in the American League.

Two years later, in December 2009, Granderson was a part of a three-way trade (with the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks) that brought Max Scherzer to Motown. In 2011, his second campaign in the Bronx, Granderson finished 4th in the MVP vote with 41 HR and a league-leading 119 RBI and 136 runs scored.

That was the last truly big year of Granderson’s career. He hit 43 HR with 106 RBI in 2012 but hit only .232. After an injury-plagued 2013 campaign, Granderson signed as a free agent with the crosstown New York Mets. He was a key part of the 2015 squad that made it to the Fall Classic (he hit 3 HR with 5 RBI in the Mets’ World Series loss to the Kansas City Royals).

At his best (from 2007-11), he was easily the best center fielder in the American League. By WAR (29.6 for those years), he was the 8th best position player in baseball, behind Albert Pujols, Utley, Alex Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, and Matt Holliday.

His peak performance, however, was too short and not strong enough to merit serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. On this ballot, he’s the third-best center fielder, behind Carlos Beltran and Torii Hunter.

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Beltran is in a different category completely, obviously. If it weren’t for his role in the Houston Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, he’d probably already have made it to Cooperstown. But, as you can see, Granderson falls short of Hunter as well, and Hunter has nine Gold Gloves to go with superior offensive statistics. And Hunter has never gotten even 10% of the BBWAA vote in four tries.

If they built the Hall solely for players who were good teammates and good citizens, Curtis Granderson would be in it, but his statistics fall short.

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Cooperstown Cred: Troy Tulowitzki (SS)

• Rockies (2006-15), Blue Jays (2015-17), Yankees (2019)
• Career: .290 BA, .361 OBP, .495 SLG, 225 HR, 780 RBI, 1,391 Hits
• Career: 118 OPS+, 44.5 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Award winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner

Of all the ten players on this “one-and-done” list, Troy Tulowitzki is the one who most looked like he was heading to the Hall of Fame early in his career.

Tulowitzki was a junior at Long Beach State when, in 2005, he was the first-round draft pick by the Colorado Rockies (picked 7th overall). After just 144 games at three levels of the minor leagues, Tulo made his MLB debut on August 30, 2006.

Although Tulowitzki struggled in his first cup of coffee in the majors (at age 21), manager Clint Hurdle started him at short 23 times down the stretch.

Tulowitzki emerged as a star in 2007, hitting .299 with 24 HR and 99 RBI. Thanks to superb fielding metrics at short, Tulo’s 6.8 WAR was the 5th best among position players in the N.L.

The Rockies famously won 14 of their 15 games to nab the N.L. Wild Card spot, with a 13-inning one-game playoff win over the San Diego Padres the capstone of the comeback. In that epic game at Coors Field, Tulo had an RBI double off Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman, later scoring the tying run in a three-run inning that resulted in a 9-8 victory. Tulo went 4 for 7 with three runs scored in that classic tilt.

The 2007 Rockies swept their way through the NLDS and NLCS, resulting in 21 out of 22 wins overall, before being swept by the Boston Red Sox in the Fall Classic. Tulo struggled in his first postseason exposure, slashing .195/.267/341 with three RBI in 11 games.

After the season, Tulo barely lost out to Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun in the Rookie of the Year vote.

Overall, Tulowitzki spent parts of ten seasons with the Rockies, performing at an All-Star caliber in six of them, earning five nods to the All-Star Game.

Tulo’s run of brilliance in the Mile High City was interrupted by two injury-plagued campaigns (2008 and 2012); he was limited to 101 games in ’08 and just 47 in ’12. He was also limited to 122 games in 2010 but still managed to hit 27 HR with 95 RBI and post a 6.7 WAR.

Tulowitzki finished 5th in the MVP voting in both 2009 and 2010 while winning the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger in both campaigns. After the 2010 campaign, he signed a six-year contract extension worth $120 million, which, on top of his existing contract, was designed to keep him in Colorado through 2019.

At the end of 2014, his age 29 season, Tulo had 37.8 career WAR with 176 HR and a 125 OPS+.

Tulo’s 37.8 WAR through his age 29 campaign was the 16th best for a shortstop to debut in the modern era (1901 and beyond). Of the 15 players ahead of him on the list, 11 are (or would later be) in the Hall of Fame.

Alas, for Tulowitzki, his career in his 30s went down the path of Nomar Garciaparra, not Derek Jeter. Tulo only played in four more seasons, compiling 6.7 WAR with a 97 OPS+.

With the Rockies out of contention in 2015, Tulo was traded to the star-laden Toronto Blue Jays but hit just .239 (89 OPS+) in 41 games. The Jays won the A.L. East advanced to the ALCS before falling to the Kansas City Royals.

Tulo had a decent year in 2016 (.254 PA, 24 HR, 79 RBI, 3.2 WAR); the Jays made it to the ALCS again before losing to the Cleveland Indians.

Two separate injuries limited Tulowitzki to 66 games in 2017, and he missed the entire 2018 campaign due to surgery on his right ankle. The Jays released him in December, still owing $38 million on his contract.

Tulowitzki signed a minor-league contract with the Yankees in 2019 and appeared in only five games before hitting the shelf again with a left calf strain. He officially retired on July 25.

For whatever reason, some players are simply prone to injuries. By my unofficial count, Troy Tulowitzki was put on the disabled (or injured) list a dozen times, with most of the injuries unrelated and some freakish.

The toll of all the injuries caused Tulo’s career to end early, at age 34, robbing him of the chance to pile up the numbers that would have made him a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.

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Cooperstown Cred: Ben Zobrist (UT)

• Rays (2006-14), A’s (2015), Royals (2015), Cubs (2016-19)
• Career: .266 BA, .357 OBP, .426 SLG, 167 HR, 768 RBI, 1,566 Hits
• Career: 113 OPS+, 44.5 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• Member of 2015 World Series Champion Royals and 2016 Champion Cubs
• 2016 World Series MVP: .357 BA, .419 OBP, .500 SLG

Ben Zobrist was a true utilityman, providing value to his teams by being able to play virtually any position on the diamond. Additionally, as a switch-hitter nearly equally proficient from both sides of the plate, Zobrist gave his managers the flexibility of switching positions in the middle of the game when a pinch-hitter was required for a teammate with pronounced platoon splits.

Zobrist is one of only ten players in the modern game (1901 and beyond) to appear at every position on the diamond except for catcher. He played 911 games at second base, 446 in right field, 236 at shortstop, 223 in left field, 34 in center field, 27 at first base, 8 at third base, and he pitched once in 2019, his final campaign.

Zobrist was 23 years old when he was drafted (as a shortstop) by the Houston Astros in 2004. After a mid-July trade for Aubrey Huff, he was 25 when he made his MLB debut in August 2006 with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He was a backup shortstop for the Devil Rays in 2006 and 2007. In 303 plate appearances, he was woeful at the plate, slashing .200/.234/.275 for a 33 OPS+ and -1.7 WAR.

Zobrist was used first as a utilityman in 2008 (playing six positions) and started to hit, slashing .253/.339/.505 (120 OPS+) in 227 PA. Still, at the end of his age 27 season, Zobrist owned a career BA of .222, with 15 HR, 57 RBI, a WAR of -0.8, and a 69 OPS+.

The 2008 Rays unexpectedly made the postseason for the first time, advancing all the way to the World Series; Zobrist only logged 13 PA in 16 games. All-Star appearances did not appear to loom in his future.

But Zobrist had a massive and unexpected breakout year in his age 28 campaign. Lackluster productivity from the Rays’ two right fielders (Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross) and an injury to second baseman Akinori Iwamura gave him the opportunity to play in 152 games. He slashed .297/.405/.543 (149 OPS+) with 27 HR, 91 RBI, and an 8.6 WAR, the best in the A.L.

Now known as Zorilla or Zobi-Wan Kenobi, Zobrist made his first All-Star team and finished 8th in the MVP voting.

Zobi-Wan never quite matched his 2009 campaign, but he still averaged 21 HR, 72 RBI with a 119 OPS+ and 5.5 WAR in his next five seasons with the Rays.

Zobrist was traded to the Oakland A’s in January 2015; he spent half a season in Oakland before being dealt to the Kansas City Royals in late July. Zorilla slashed .303/.365/.515 in the postseason, helping the Royals to their first World Series title since 1985.

A free agent, and now a bit of a star, the 34-year-old Zobrist signed with the Chicago Cubs for four years and $56 million, reuniting him with his manager with the Rays (Joe Maddon).

On a team of bigger stars, Zobrist played a complementary role (his 3.4 WAR was the 8th highest on the team) but helped the franchise to its first World Series appearance since 1945. In the Fall Classic, he slashed .357/.419/.500 while scoring 10 runs and was the World Series MVP. In Game 7 (against the Cleveland Indians), his 10th-inning RBI double broke a 6-6 tie and led the Cubs to the championship.

Zobrist played for three more years with the Cubs (.268 BA, 95 OPS+, 3.3 WAR) before retiring in the spring of 2020.

BenZobrist finished his career with a .266 batting average, 167 HR, and 1,566. Those numbers don’t even sniff the Hall of Fame. And yet his career WAR (44.5) is higher than that of recently elected Hall of Famers Harold Baines, Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, and Dave Parker.

How is that possible? There are a couple of answers. One, he drew a lot of walks, yielding a .357 OBP, allowing him to score 80 or more runs five times. The second reason is that he was an excellent fielder, regardless of his position.

In fairness, the fielding metrics that boosted his WAR were in part due to the cutting-edge organizational philosophy of the Rays and their managers, who used positional shifts more aggressively than all of the other teams in baseball, resulting in more putout and assist opportunities.

Zobrist’s WAR has nothing to do with his usefulness as a utility man. That’s a bonus unrecognized by the algorithm but one that was immensely helpful to his teams.

For a player whose primary position was 2nd base, Zobrist has the 6th highest WAR since World War II for the ages of 28 and above. He’s behind only Joe Morgan, Jackie Robinson, Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, and Craig Biggio.

Ultimately, however, Ben Zobrist won’t make the Hall of Fame simply because his career as a productive player began too late in his life. His entire positive career value began in his age 28 campaign.

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Cooperstown Cred: Hanley Ramirez (SS)

• Red Sox (2005. 2005-18), Marlins (2006-12), Dodgers (2012-14), Indians (2019)
• Career: .289 BA, .360 OBP, .486 SLG, 271 HR, 917 RBI, 1,834 Hits, 281 SB
• Career: 124 OPS+, 38.0 WAR
• 2006 N.L. Rookie of the Year winner (.292 BA, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 119 Runs, 51 SB, 4.9 WAR)
• 2nd in 2009 N.L. MVP voting (.342 BA, 24 HR, 106 RBI, 101 Runs, 27 SB, 7.3 WAR)
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner

Even more than Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez looked like a Hall of Famer in the making early in his career as a shortstop with power and speed.

Born in the Dominican Republic, Ramirez was signed as an amateur free agent by the Boston Red Sox in 2000 when he was only 16 years old. He spent several years in the minor leagues before a brief stop with the Sox at the end of the 2005 campaign (he had just two plate appearances, striking out both times).

In the offseason, Ramirez was one of the two key prospects (along with pitcher Anibal Sanchez) who was dealt to the Florida Marlins in a seven-player deal that brought Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to Boston.

In the spring of 2006, Ramirez won the starting shortstop for new manager Joe Girardi, and he made an instant presence atop the Marlins’ lineup. Ramirez slashed .292/.353/.480 as a rookie, with 17 HR, 59 RBI, 119 Runs, and 51 SB. His OPS+ was 119, his WAR 4.9, and he was named the N.L. Rookie of the Year.

Ramirez was one of the best players in the league from 2007-09. He averaged .325, with a .398 OBP and .549 SLG (145 OPS+). He also averaged 29 HR, 85 RBI, 117 Runs, 38 SB, and a 6.1 WAR for those three years.

In ’09, his .342 BA led the N.L. and finished second in the MVP voting to Albert Pujols.

With a career .313 average, 138 OPS+, and 23.3 WAR after just four full seasons, Hanley looked like he might be destined for Cooperstown.

Ramirez was injured twice in 2010; while he still played in 142 games, his productivity dropped (2.8 WAR, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 126 OPS+). He only played in 92 games in 2011 due to a shoulder injury; he hit just .243 with 10 HR, 45 RBI, and a 0.2 WAR.

For the 2012 campaign, Hanley was moved to third base to accommodate free agent acquisition Jose Reyes. Although he wasn’t happy about it, moving to third base was overdue for the defensively challenged Ramirez. He was only hitting .246 with 14 HR when, at the end of July, he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a package that sent Nathan Eovaldi to Miami.

Ramirez maintained his mediocre play once in L.A. and finished the season with a middling 1.3 WAR and 105 OPS+.

In 2013, his age 29 season, Ramirez was moved back to shortstop and briefly recaptured the brilliance of his early 20s. In just 86 games, he slashed .345/.402/.638 with 20 HR and 57 RBI, producing a 5.2 WAR and 189 OPS+.

The much beefier Ramirez was no longer a major threat on the basepaths (10 SB), but his offensive output gave him an 8th-place finish in the MVP vote despite missing nearly half the season.

After a decent but less productive 2014 campaign, Ramirez signed a four-year, $88 million contract with the Boston Red Sox. The Sox already had a shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) and also signed third baseman Pablo Sandoval, so Hanley was moved to left field.

Hanley’s first year in Boston was a disaster: he posted a -0.7 WAR (thanks in part to brutal play in left field) and a lowly 89 OPS+. He moved to first base in 2016, and he had one final solid season (30 HR, 111 RBI, 126 OPS+).

Ramirez produced -0.4 WAR with a 91 OPS+ for his final three years (including 16 games in Cleveland in 2019). His career was over at 35.

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Cooperstown Cred: Adam Jones (OF)

• Mariners (2006-07), Orioles (2008-18), Diamondbacks (2019)
• Career: .277 BA, .317 OBP, .454 SLG, 282 HR, 945 RBI, 1,939 Hits
• Career: 106 OPS+, 32.6 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove winner, 2013 Silver Slugger Award winner

Adam Jones was a player who had five tools, but none of those tools were truly elite. He could hit fairly well (.277 career BA), hit with some power (282 HR), had decent speed (97 SB), was a good fielder (won four Gold Gloves), and could throw (led the American League in assists three times).

Drafted as a pitcher and a shortstop by the Seattle Mariners in the first round of the 2003 draft, Jones moved to the outfield in his minor league days. He was only 20 when he made his MLB debut in 2006 and played part-time for the M’s in both ’06 and ’07.

In February 2008, he was one of the five players dealt to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for pitcher Erik Bedard.

In Baltimore, the right-handed-hitting Jones was a regular presence in the lineup as the team’s center fielder for eleven years. As a 22-year-old in 2008, Jones mostly hit at the bottom of the order but ascended to the #2 hole in 2009, when a strong first half (.303 BA, 12 HR, 47 RBI) led to his first All-Star berth. He tailed off in the second half and missed the last month of the season with an ankle sprain but was still granted his first Gold Glove.

From 2010-18, Jones was reliable and durable, though rarely spectacular. He averaged 151 games played per season. His best years were from 2012-15, when he hit .281 with an average of 30 HR, 92 RBI, and a 4.3 WAR. He was an All-Star in all four of those campaigns, won three more Gold Gloves, and earned down-ballot MVP consideration from 2012-14.

Under manager Buck Showalter, the O’s made the postseason three times while Jones roamed center field, advancing as far as the ALCS in 2014. Jones was never much of a factor in October, slashing .155/.206/.207 in 14 postseason games.

The O’s were downright terrible in Jones’ (and Showalter’s) last season with the team, going 47-115.

In 2019, Jones spent his final MLB campaign with the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting a -0.8 WAR and 87 OPS+ as the team’s starting right fielder. He spent the final two years of his professional baseball career with the Orix Buffaloes in Japan.

As a member of the Orioles family, Jones will always be beloved. His 263 HR are the fifth most in the history of the franchise, behind Cal Ripken Jr., Eddie Murray, Boog Powell, and Brooks Robinson.

Jones’s overall career counting stats (282 HR, 1,939 Hits), however, put him far short of the Hall of Fame. His relatively low 32.4 career WAR is because of inconsistent fielding metrics and his lack of walks. Although he was a career .277 hitter (decent), Jones averaged only 30 bases on balls per year, yielding a low career OBP (.317).

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Cooperstown Cred: Carlos Gonzalez (OF)

• A’s (2008), Rockies (2009-18), Indians (2019), Cubs (2019)
• Career: .285 BA, .343 OBP, .500 SLG, 234 HR, 785 RBI, 1,432 Hits
• Career: 112 OPS+, 24.4 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner

Carlos Gonzalez was involved in two major trades before he ever made his mark in Major League Baseball. Signed as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela by the Arizona Diamondbacks, he was a part of an eight-player trade to the Oakland A’s in December 2007 that brought Dan Haren to Arizona.

Then, a year later, he was traded (along with closer Huston Street) to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday.

Gonzalez became a star in 2010  when he finished 3rd in the MVP voting, hitting .336 with 34 HR, 117 RBI, 197 Hits, 26 stolen bases, and a 5.9 WAR. Although not quite as prolific as in 2010, CarGo had three more solid campaigns before an injury-plagued 2014 season in which he hit .232 and posted a -0.5 WAR.

The left-handed-hitting Gonzalez had a couple more solid campaigns (40 HR with 97 RBI in 2015 and 25 HR with 100 RBI in 2016) but really tailed off in 2017 (-0.2 WAR).

CarGo spent one more year in Denver before splitting time between the Indians and the Cubs in 2019, his final MLB season.

Gonzalez had a nice career, but it was obviously not remotely close to Hall of Fame caliber.

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Cooperstown Cred: Fernando Rodney (RP)

• Tigers (2002-09), Angels (2010-11), Rays (2012-13), Mariners (2014-15), Cubs (2015), Padres (2016), Marlins (2016), Diamondbacks (2017), Twins (2018), A’s (2018-19), Nationals (2019)
• Career: 48-71 (.403 WL%), 3.80 ERA
• Career: 110 ERA+, 7.4 WAR
• Career: 327 Saves, 77 Blown Saves (81% success rate)
• Led the A.L. with 48 saves in 2014
• 3-time All-Star

When I first saw that Fernando Rodney was on the 2025 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, I didn’t think much of it. It’s normal for BBWAA ballots to have multiple players who aren’t remotely worthy of the Hall.

As long as you’ve played at least ten years in Major League Baseball, you’re eligible to be put on the ballot. But it’s not automatic. There were about five dozen first-year eligibles based on the ten-year rule.

I thought there might be an unwritten tradition that players who had reached certain milestones would be natural additions to the ballot. Rodney is one of only 31 pitchers to save 300 or more games. But then I saw that Francisco Cordero (329 saves) never made the 2018 ballot, so there goes that theory.

Rodney had a couple of big years, most notably in 2012 with the Tampa Bay Rays, when he saved 48 games and had a 0.60 ERA (he finished 5th in the Cy Young voting). He also led the A.L. in saves in 2014 when he saved 48 games for the Seattle Mariners (while posting a 2.85 ERA).

The problem with Rodney’s career is that he posted a combined 4.18 ERA in his other 15 MLB campaigns. Of the 54 relievers in history with at least 200 saves, his lifetime 3.80 ERA is third to last. His career WAR (7.4) is dead last, and his WPA (4.4) is second to last (see the Glossary for an explanation of Win Probability Added (WPA).

Of the 14 first-time candidates on the 2025 BBWAA ballot, the only other pitchers are CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. Maybe he’s on the ballot for that reason. Or maybe he’s there to make Billy Wagner (in his 10th and final year of eligibility) look good by comparison.

Rodney had a nice career, but he won’t get a single vote on this ballot.

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