Scott Rolen’s Path to the Hall of Fame: a WAR Story

This Sunday, Scott Rolen, one of the greatest defensive third basemen in the history of baseball, will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York. This January, the 389 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) elected Rolen to the Hall with 76.3% of the vote in an election that requires 75% or more for induction.

Rolen will join Fred McGriff on stage in Cooperstown on Sunday. The Crime Dog was unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame by the Contemporary Baseball Eras Committee last December.

Rolen, who won 8 Gold Gloves and made 7 All-Star squads during his 17-year career with the Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Reds, barely made it to the Hall this year, with just a five-vote surplus above the 292 out of 389 required to make the 75% number. Rolen’s razor-thin margin was the 12th most narrow margin for a player to make it to Cooperstown.

How Scott Rolen Made It to Cooperstown

Every once in a while there is a Hall of Fame candidate who comes along that is an obvious “yes” for many that yields a pair of shrugged shoulders from many others. Scott Rolen was that kind of candidate. At 6’4″, 245 pounds, Rolen had the body of a linebacker but was a nimble third baseman who combined quick reflexes with a powerful arm. He won eight Gold Gloves Awards thanks to his defensive prowess, the fourth most for any third sacker in Major League Baseball history.

Rolen also made seven All-Star teams, hit 316 career home runs, and posted a .490 slugging percentage.

Still, his offensive resume is devoid of black type (he never led the league in any offensive category). Additionally, he only finished in the top 10 of the MVP vote one time in his 17-year career, eliciting those shrugs from many of the writers who vote on the Hall of Fame.

By advanced metrics, most specifically WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Rolen was an obvious selection, one that finally resulted in his election. His career WAR of 70.1 is the 9th best among third basemen in the history of the game. Despite that sterling credential, Rolen only received only 43 out of 422 votes (10.2%) in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame in 2018. Candidates who debut with such a low percentage don’t usually climb to 75% (the minimum required for a plaque in Cooperstown) in the years that follow.

However, Rolen surged in the years since, to 17.2% in 2019, 35.3% in 2020, 52.9% in 2021, 63.2% in 2022, and, finally, 76.3% this January.

In the last 50 years of the BBWAA voting, Rolen’s induction represents a new standard for the biggest leap from the player’s first-ballot tally to an eventual 75% and a plaque in Cooperstown. Prior to Rolen’s election, you have to go all the way back to 1964 (Bob Lemon) to find a player who received less than 15% in their first BBWAA vote but climbed all the way to 75% in the years that followed.

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Rolen’s progression from 10% to over 75% does have recent precedent, however. Rockies and Expos right fielder Larry Walker (also a high WAR candidate with a 72.7 career total) climbed from 10.2% in 2014 to 76.6% in 2021. Now both players are Hall of Famers.

This piece was originally published in December 2017. It has been updated and expanded in anticipation of Rolen’s induction into the Hall.

Cooperstown Cred: Scott Rolen (3B)

Elected to the Hall of Fame in 2023 with 76.2% of the vote (6th year on ballot)

• Phillies (1996-2002), Cardinals (2002-07), Blue Jays (2008-09), Reds (2009-12)
• Career: .281 BA, .364 OBP, .490 SLG, 316 HR, 1,287 RBI, 2,077 Hits
• Career: 122 OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 8-time Gold Glove Award winner (4th most for any 3rd baseman) (behind Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt & Nolan Arenado)
• 7-time All-Star
• 1997 Rookie of the Year (.283 BA, 21 HR, 92 RBI, 121 OPS+)
• Hit .421 with 1.213 OPS in the 2006 World Series title with the Cardinals

(cover photo: KSDK)

Because his career ended prematurely due to multiple injuries and because he always played second or third fiddle to other players more famous than he, Scott Rolen is the kind of player who would have been easily overlooked by Hall of Fame voters in the past. However, he crossed the finish line in the BBWAA vote because of his high career WAR and the eight Gold Gloves.

In the history of baseball, there are only 10 other players with a WAR of 70 or greater who have been eligible for the Hall of Fame who were not eventually granted a plaque:

• 3 of the 10 exhausted their 10 years of eligibility on the 2022 BBWAA ballot: Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling.
• Alex Rodriguez, who will be on the ballot for the 3rd time in 2024
• Carlos Beltran, who will be on the ballot for the 2nd time in 2024
• The other five: Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, PED-tainted Rafael Palmeiro, and 19th-century players Bill Dahlen and Jim McCormick.

Pete Rose (79.6 WAR) has technically never been eligible for the Hall of Fame due to his lifetime ban from baseball.

For the record, there are several other 70+ WAR players who aren’t in the Hall of Fame, but that’s because they have yet to hit the BBWAA ballot. Albert Pujols and Adrian Beltre haven’t hit the ballot yet (Beltre is eligible in 2024). Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke are still active.

Scott Rolen: Early Life & Career

Scott Bruce Rolen was born on April 4, 1975, in Evansville, Indiana. He grew up in Jasper, a small town about an hour east that’s about halfway in the middle of nowhere in between St. Louis and Cincinnati. Summer vacations in the Rolen family often were wrapped around homestands to ballparks in those cities.

Rolen was a three-sport star in high school; as a senior, he was named “Mr. Baseball” in the state of Indiana and was the runner-up for “Mr. Basketball” while also playing tennis.

Although the 6’4″ Rolen was heavily recruited to play basketball in college and had committed to play at Georgia, a $250,000 signing bonus convinced him to join the Philadelphia Phillies organization. He was the team’s second-round draft pick in 1993.

By his age 21 season, Rolen was tearing up the minor leagues offensively. Between AA Reading and AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, Rolen had a slash line of .324 BA/.416 OBP/.515 SLG when he was brought up to the Major Leagues. Rolen made his Major League Baseball debut on August 1, 1996, and was immediately installed as the Phillies’ starting third baseman. He started 37 games in a row before his season was ended prematurely by a broken right arm, having been hit by a pitch from Chicago’s Steve Trachsel.

1996-2002: Philadelphia Phillies

The premature end to Rolen’s “first” season allowed 1997 to officially become his “rookie” season. Rolen took advantage of the opportunity by winning the Rookie of the Year award in the National League, thanks to 21 HR, 92 RBI, 93 Runs, and a 121 OPS+. His 4.5 WAR as a rookie was third-best among N.L. third sackers. The 22-year-old right-handed hitting rookie played 156 of 162 games for rookie manager Terry Francona.

Rolen became a legitimate star in 1998. In his first 76 games, he had a slash line of .312/.389/.535 while hitting 15 HR with 57 RBI. It was certainly an All-Star caliber season but Rolen was beaten out by Chipper Jones, already a superstar, and Colorado’s Vinny Castilla, who had 23 taters and 68 ribbies.

By the end of the season, Rolen had 31 HR with 110 RBI, 120 runs scored, and a robust 139 OPS+. Rolen also earned his first Gold Glove Award in ’98.

Rolen regressed a bit in the next two seasons. An injured lower back helped limit him to 112 games in 1999 while a left ankle sprain was partially responsible for limiting him to 128 games in 2000. Rolen was still productive for those two seasons (averaging 83 RBI with a 124 OPS+) but had not yet broken through into legitimate superstar status.

Conflict and a Premature End to Scott Rolen’s Philadelphia Story

2001 brought Scott Rolen good health, a talented rookie shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) to join him on the left side of the infield, and a new manager (Larry Bowa). Rolen won his third Gold Glove and drove in 107 runs with 25 long balls.

Although he homered on Opening Day for the third straight season, Rolen’s overall start to 2001 was slow. The Phillies’ right-handed slugger was hitting just .202 after 27 games. After 64 games, he had improved to .261 but his OPS was just .754 (he had only 6 HR in those first 64 contests).

As the Phillies were swept in Tampa Bay by the lowly Devil Rays, the hard-nosed Bowa blamed the team’s sluggish play (having lost 9 of 11 games) on Rolen. The two got into a heated argument in Tampa, after which the young star heard the boo-birds at Veterans Stadium upon the team’s return to Philly.

Rolen heated up in the second half of the season. In his final 43 games, he slashed .306/.405/.682 with 15 homers and 39 RBI. His hot close with the bat helped the Phillies win 19 of their final 28 games and finish two games out of first place in the N.L. East. It was the first time that Rolen had the chance to enjoy a pennant race.

Although he had yet to make an All-Star squad, Rolen had three Gold Gloves and more RBI through his first 6 seasons in Philadelphia than Mike Schmidt had in the 1970s.

In the off-season, the strain between the young star and the Philadelphia brass was evidenced when he turned down a 7-year, $90 million contract extension offer. Besides his clash with Bowa, Rolen did not forget it when club executive Dallas Green referred to Rolen as a “so-so player” during a radio interview in August.

After another confrontation with Bowa during spring training that resulted in Bowa demanding (on camera) that General Manager Ed Wade trade Rolen, it was obvious that the free agent-to-be wouldn’t spend his entire career with the Phillies. After 100 regular-season games and his first All-Star berth in 2002, Rolen’s career in the City of Brotherly Love came to an end.

Scott Rolen Traded to the St. Louis Cardinals

The Phillies were in contention in July 2002 but traded Scott Rolen to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 29th. He told ESPN’s Peter Gammons that he had “died and gone to heaven” upon learning of the deal that would send him to the baseball team he often rooted for in childhood.

The Redbirds, under Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa, were near the beginning of a seven-year stretch in which they would make the playoffs six times. The Cards’ new third sacker was joining a team that was already 5 games ahead in the N.L. Central. The team featured another multiple Gold Glove winner (center fielder Jim Edmonds) and the 2001 N.L. Rookie of the year, left fielder Albert Pujols (not yet a first baseman).

Rolen posted a 139 OPS+ with 44 RBI in 55 games with the Cardinals in the 2002 stretch run. Besides his prowess with the bat, his new manager was especially impressed with his new third baseman’s defensive ability. “I told him once, my happiest day would be if there’s a game where 27 ground balls get to third base,” La Russa said. Shortly before the end of the season, Rolen eschewed free agency by signing an eight-year, $90 million contract.

The Cardinals easily won the N.L. Central and were matched up in the ’02 National League Division Series against the defending World Series Champion Arizona Diamondbacks. In his first postseason game, Rolen broke a 2-2 fourth-inning tie with a 2-run home run off future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson. Unfortunately, an on-field collision in Game 2 took Rolen out for the rest of the postseason. He watched his teammates win the NLDS before falling to the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS.

After the disappointing end to 2002, Rolen had a terrific first full season with the Cardinals in 2003. He swatted 28 home runs with 104 RBI, 98 Runs, and a 138 OPS+, all while winning his 5th Gold Glove. And he was happy to be in St. Louis.

“I am very comfortable in this environment… I come to the park, and it’s all about baseball. As I drove in (last Saturday) there were 30 people outside the stadium having a barbecue. They were all dressed in red. It was three, four hours before the game! This is for a baseball game — it’s not Lambeau Field! But there they were.”

— Scott Rolen, as told to Sports Illustrated‘s Tom Verducci (July 12, 2004)

2004: Career Year

In 2004, Scott Rolen had a career-best season. Offensively, he set career highs in all three slash line categories (.314 BA/.409 OBP/.598 SLG) to go with 34 HR and 124 RBI, also career bests. Coincidentally, Baseball Reference’s “WAR Runs Above Average from Fielding” metric also labeled it his best season with the glove. By the advanced metrics, Rolen had a 9.2 WAR and 158 OPS+. Normally, that might have meant an MVP title but Barry Bonds, Adrian Beltre, and Pujols all also had huge seasons so Rolen settled for fourth.

With Pujols and Edmonds both posting big years to go with Rolen’s, the Redbirds won 105 games in the regular season. The team beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in 4 games the NLDS, despite Rolen going 0 for 12.

In the NLCS (against the Houston Astros), Rolen played a key role in the Cards’ Game 2 win. In the bottom of the 5th inning, with the Astros up 3-2, Rolen hit a two-run home run off reliever Chad Harville to give the Redbirds a 4-3 lead. Then, in the bottom of the 8th, with the score tied at 4, Pujos and Rolen hit back-to-back taters to give St. Louis the 6-4 lead that would ultimately be the final score. Click here to enjoy both of Rolen’s taters. The series would ultimately go to seven games, thanks to Edmonds’ walk-off blast that ended Game 6.

In Game 7, although the game was in St. Louis, the Astros were favored to make their first-ever Fall Classic thanks to the favorable pitching matchup of Jeff Suppan for the Cards against Roger Clemens for the ‘Stros. Although the Rocket was now 42 years old, he had gone 18-4 with a 2.98 ERA in the ’04 regular season en route to his 7th Cy Young Award.

In the bottom of the 6th inning, Clemens was clinging to a 2-1 lead. After a two-out double by Pujols tied the score at 2, Rolen came up to the plate. On the first pitch, Rolen hit a 93-MPH fastball for a line drive that barely cleared the left-field wall to give the Redbirds a 4-2 lead. The Cardinals won the game 5-2 and made their first trip to the World Series since 1987.

In the American League, the Boston Red Sox finished off an even more thrilling 7-game series, coming back from 3 games to 0 to defeat the New York Yankees. The Sox swept the Cardinals in four games in the World Series, with Rolen disappointing with a 0 for 15 performance.

A Lost 2005 Season and a Championship 2006 Campaign

The magnificent 2004 campaign for Scott Rolen was followed up by a disappointing 2005. An early-season collision resulted in a tear in his left labrum. Surgery eventually was required, ending his season on July 21 after just 56 games played with just 5 HR, 28 RBI, and a then-career low 84 OPS+. Despite the early-season injury and subpar stats, Rolen was named to his 4th All-Star team, perhaps because La Russa was the N.L. skipper.

Although he would never replicate his 2004 campaign, Rolen returned to All-Star form in 2006. He hit 22 HR with 95 RBI and a 126 OPS+. This, along with his 7th Gold Glove, was good enough for a 5.9 WAR, the third-highest of his 17-year career.

The Redbirds were back in postseason baseball in 2006. Rolen only hit .188 (with a .528 OPS and 0 RBI) in the Cardinals’ NLDS and NLCS series wins, although he could have been a Game 7 star were it not for one of the greatest catches in the history of October, by the Mets’ Endy Chavez.

Rolen’s bat, however, woke up in the Fall Classic. He hit .421 with a 1.213 OPS in the Redbirds’ 5-game World Series win over the Detroit Tigers. In Game 1, Rolen continued his October tradition of beating baseball’s best pitchers by hitting a solo home run off Detroit’s rookie right-hander Justin Verlander.

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The Honeymoon in St. Louis Ends

Scott Rolen’s first 4+ seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals could not have worked out better. He made the All-Star team every year while winning 3 Gold Gloves, 2 pennants, and a World Series title.

The title run, however, did not come without some drama. In October 2006, Rolen was fighting fatigue in his surgically repaired left shoulder. After he went 1 for 14 in the team’s first 4 postseason games, La Russa benched his star third sacker in Game 2 of the NLCS against the New York Mets in favor of veteran utilityman Scott Spiezio, who responded with 2 hits and 3 RBI. Rolen returned to the lineup and got at least one hit in the team’s final 10 postseason tilts but the seeds of discontent had been sown.

Although, thanks to continued stellar play at the hot corner, Rolen would post some respectable seasons as measured by WAR, he never again would approach the heights of his ’02, ’03, ’04, or ’06 campaigns.

Continuing shoulder woes limited Rolen to 112 games in 2007, one of his worst offensively. He hit .265 with just 8 HR and 58 RBI in 112 games while posting a below-league-average 89 OPS+.

Traded to Toronto

By the end of 2007, Scott Rolen’s relationship with La Russa was downright frosty. In January 2008, the Indiana native who grew up rooting for the Redbirds was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for another third baseman, Troy Glaus.

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2008 was the lone full season for Scott Rolen with the Jays. Injuries again limited his games played and production. In 115 games, he hit just 11 HR with 50 RBI and a 109 OPS+. His defense remained first-rate, allowing for a 3.4 WAR in spite of the average offensive production.

A little healthier in 2009, Rolen had an improved season with the bat. In the first four months of the season, he was hitting .320 with an OPS+ of 121. With the Jays out of contention, Rolen was traded back to the Midwest in a deal that sent him to the Cincinnati Reds, the other team he watched during his childhood. The deal sent a struggling third baseman (Edwin Encarnacion) to the Blue Jays although, as Jay Jaffe has noted, Encarnacion would not develop into a star for another three years and the Jays actually briefly lost him to the A’s in the 2010-11 offseason.

Scott Rolen’s Final 3+ Seasons in Cincinnati

Initially, the trade looked like a bust for Cincinnati; in 40 games with the Reds, Rolen hit only 3 home runs with a 103 OPS+. Still, with the defensive metrics favoring his glove, Rolen finished the combined season with a 5.2 WAR.

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In 2010, at the age of 35, Rolen had a last hurrah, a terrific season in which he would finish 14th in the MVP vote, make the Mid-Summer Classic, and win his 8th and final Gold Glove. Rolen delivered 20 home runs with 83 RBI along with a 126 OPS+. His exploits, along with those of N.L. MVP first baseman Joey Votto, helped lead Dusty Baker’s Reds to their first postseason appearance since 1995.

Rolen would disappoint in October baseball once again, however. He went 1 for 11 as the Reds were swept in 3 games by his former team (the Phillies, who were the two-time defending N.L. Champs). In Game 1 of that series, Rolen’s 2008-09 teammate in Toronto (Roy Halladay) pitched a no-hitter.

Scott Rolen played for two more seasons, limited by back and shoulder woes to 65 games in 2011 and 92 games in 2012. He hit a combined .244 in those two seasons with a woeful .301 OBP and .397 SLG, which translates to a well-below-average 86 OPS+. Based on reputation (one assumes), he made the 2011 All-Star squad.

Final Postseason in 2012

The 2012 Reds won 97 games, easily winning the N.L. Central. Matched up in the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, the Reds took the first two games at AT&T Park, with Rolen going 1 for 7. Baker’s Reds needed just one win in Cincinnati to advance to the NLCS.

In Game 3, the score was tied at 1 in the top of the 10th inning. With two outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd, Rolen bobbled a soft grounder from Buster Posey, allowing the go-ahead run to score, ultimately giving the Giants a 2-1 win.

Baker sat Rolen in Game 4 in favor of rookie Todd Frazier although, in typical Baker fashion as a player’s manager, he said it was routine to give the 37-year-old Rolen a day off when the team had a day game after a night game. It didn’t matter. The Reds lost 8-3.

In Game 5, Posey broke open the game with a grand slam in the top of the 5th inning, giving the Giants a 6-0 lead. Still, the Reds scraped back to get the score to 6-3 entering the bottom of the 9th inning. Cincinnati cut the lead to 6-4 on a one-out RBI single by Ryan Ludwick. After Jay Bruce flew out to left, Rolen came to the plate with the tying run at first base. On four pitches, Sergio Romo struck out Rolen to end the season for the Cincinnati Reds and ultimately help lead the Giants to their 2nd of 3 World Series titles from 2010 to 2014.

Scott Rolen’s final at bat in Major League Baseball was the strikeout that ended Game 5. In a piece of bitter irony, the last play the 8-time Gold Glover ever made was the error in the 10th inning of Game 3. Not one ball was hit to Rolen in Game 5.

The balance of this piece makes the case for Rolen for the Hall of Fame (originally published in 2017), a case that has now been agreed to by over 75% of the BBWAA voters, resulting in a plaque unveiling in Cooperstown this Sunday.

The Hall of Fame Case for Scott Rolen

The quick pitch for Scott Rolen for Cooperstown is fairly simple. He was a well-above-average hitter with good power and was a superlative fielder at third base. Backing up the words are 316 home runs, a career OPS+ of 122 (22% above league average), and 8 Gold Gloves. Only Hall of Famers Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and the still-active Nolan Arenado have more Gold Gloves at the hot corner than Rolen.

As for hitting 300+ homers with an OPS+ of 120 or above, only 9 other third sackers have ever done that in baseball history: Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, George Brett, Chipper Jones, Ron Santo, Ron Cey, and the still-active Arenado, Manny Machado and Evan Longoria. All but Cey and the active players have plaques in Cooperstown.

Note: for whatever it’s worth, the club of third basemen with 300+ HR and an OPS+ of 120 or above only had 9 members prior to the 2023 campaign. Both Arenado and Machado passed the 300 Home Run mark this season.

Anyway, regarding the players who are retired, while Rolen and Cey each have 316 career taters, Rolen’s numbers are superior to the Penquin’s in virtually every other offensive category. Also, Cey never won a Gold Glove.

Regarding the active players, Longoria has won only won 3 Gold Gloves and made 3 All-Star teams (compared to 8 and 7 for Rolen). Machado has made, so far, 6 All-Star squads and has won a pair of Gold Gloves. Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves and is an 8-time All-Star, making him arguably the most like future Hall of Famer of the trio.

If you want to make a “club” of players with 300 home runs and 8 Gold Gloves at 3rd base, it’s Schmidt, Rolen, and Arenado, period.

Using sabermetric arguments, Rolen’s 70.1 career WAR is 9th best among all third sackers in the history of the game, 10th best if you count Paul Molitor as a third baseman.

Scott Rolen’s 8-Year Peak (1997-2004)

When analyzing a Hall of Fame case, with most players we like to look at a 7-year to a 10-year peak. Rolen was a dominant force from his official rookie year in 1997 until 2004, an eight-year period of time in which he was arguably one of the top players in all of baseball.

During those eight years, Rolen’s WAR of 46.3 was the third-best in baseball for all position players, behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, both of whom used Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs) during some of the years in question. Yes, sports fans, WAR is telling you that Rolen was the best “clean” player in baseball from 1997-2004. That by itself makes his Hall of Fame case pretty easy to make.

During these years, Rolen won 6 Gold Gloves, backed by fielding metrics that were the best for all who played the hot corner during this time. A baseball analyst has every right to look at Gold Glove Awards and advanced fielding statistics with a bit of skepticism. When, however, a player has the numbers that match the hardware, you can feel pretty confident that you’re looking at the best.

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Offensively, Rolen hit over 25 home runs 7 times during these 8 seasons while driving in over 100 runs five times.  Compared to his peers at third base, Rolen was second (to Chipper Jones) in HR, RBI, Runs, SB, OBP, SLG, and OPS+ while leading in doubles. Being 2nd best offensively at your position over an eight-year period of time is not a Cooperstown deal-breaker when you’re second to a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

A Wider of View of Scott Rolen vs his Contemporaries

Another way to evaluate Scott Rolen’s Cooperstown credentials is to look at his entire career directly against his contemporaries. Remember, injuries limited Rolen to 105 games per season for the final eight years of his career. If Rolen had duplicated his first eight full campaigns, he would likely have been a first-ballot inductee in 2018 with Chipper.

For this comparison I’m instituting two ground rules: I’m only including players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances and who had careers that were concurrent with Rolen’s for at least eight of his seventeen seasons; Rolen played from 1996 to 2012.

There are 21 third-sackers who meet these basic criteria. Here is how Rolen ranks in multiple categories with them, including dWAR (which counts defense only).

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Anyway, assuming that you believe the defensive metrics at least a little bit, it’s pretty clear that Rolen was the third-best third baseman during his era, behind Chipper and Adrian Beltre. If you’re curious about Aramis Ramirez, whose name appears on a lot of these lists, he was a good power hitter but one who had a low walk rate. Defensively, the numbers are brutal; hence his career WAR is 32.4, not even half of Rolen’s.

All-Time Rankings

In addition to being the third-best of his era, we’ve seen that Scott Rolen’s 70.1 WAR is 9th best all-time among third basemen, behind 7 Hall of Famers and Beltre.

However, there is this: just barely behind Rolen in 10th place is Graig Nettles (with a 68.0 WAR); in 11th place is Buddy Bell (with a 66.3 WAR). Neither Nettles nor Bell came remotely close to Cooperstown (although one could make a good case for each, Nettles in particular).

So let’s look at these same nine categories with all-time rankings among all third basemen, defined as those who played at least 50% of their career games at the position and those with at least 5,000 plate appearances.

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The offensive numbers for Rolen are solid but not extraordinary. Among these 116 third basemen, Rolen’s 8,518 career plate appearances rank 20th. So, among the “counting” stats, if he’s better than 20th, he’s over-performing the others. When he’s worse than 20th, he’s underperforming. In general, he’s over-performing but not by a wide margin.

Scott Rolen and other non-Hall of Fame Third Basemen

Third base has always been a tricky position in Hall of Fame voting. For most of the first 100 years of the game of baseball, it was considered a defensive position first. For the last several decades, teams have required big bats for those manning the hot corner. As a point of comparison, I’m picking just a handful of third basemen here, from the last 70 years, that had a legitimate case to be made for Cooperstown but didn’t get any respect whatsoever from the writers.

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Two of these players (Nettles and Sal Bando) won multiple World Series. All of these players except for Rolen played during an era of much bigger ballparks and thus a less offensive-friendly era. It is fair to say that Scott Rolen wasn’t dramatically better than these five players, none of whom ever got remotely close to Cooperstown.

Scott Rolen v Ron Santo

Based on this history, six years ago (when he got just 10.2% of the vote) I thought it might be a tough road for Rolen. Statistically, the most comparable Hall of Fame third baseman to Rolen is long-time Chicago Cub Ron Santo.

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I’m not old enough to have seen Santo play so I can’t testify to the quality of his glove. The writers of the 1960s saw fit to reward him with five Gold Gloves. I did see Rolen play, and, at least to my eye, he was every bit as good defensively as the metrics and eight Gold Gloves would attest. He had exceptional reflexes; he was the guy you wanted at the hot corner on a scorching line drive.

Over the years, I came to believe that Scott Rolen belonged in the Hall of Fame and it became clear after a few years on the ballot that his road to Cooperstown would be much easier than Santo’s was. In fifteen years on the ballot, Santo topped out at 43% of the writers’ vote in 1998. After four unsuccessful tries at various incarnations of the Veterans Committee, Santo was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame in the summer of 2012, a year and a half after he passed away.

Rolen’s case is a sabermetric and a fielding case. He’s a very borderline Hall of Famer based strictly on his offensive numbers. It’s always been true that, unless you’re a Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, or Ivan Rodriguez, a player with a Cooperstown case that starts with their ability as a gloveman is going to have an uphill battle.

The Hall of Fame Case Against Scott Rolen

I’ve got to say, the Hall of Fame case against Scott Rolen is not convincing, especially to someone like me who believes in a “big Hall.”

If you insist on black type from your Hall of Fame candidates, that’s an argument to make against Rolen. Offensively, he never led the league in anything and rarely came close. In 2004, Rolen was 2nd in the N.L. with 124 RBI. In this, what was his best offensive season ever, he was still just 7th in OPS+.

It’s only defensively that Rolen shows up on leaderboards. He was in the top 5 of assists eight times, leading the league twice. He was in the top 5 of putouts six times, also leading the league twice.

Also factoring against Rolen’s Cooperstown case is the lack of MVP voting recognition. Likely because voters tend to cast MVP votes based mostly on offensive numbers, Rolen only cracked the top 10 one time, in the 2004 campaign, when he finished 4th.

Finally, although Rolen had a good number of 25+ HR and 100+ RBI campaigns, he did it during an era in which offense exploded and numbers such as those were fairly commonplace.

And as for Rolen’s membership in the 300 HR/120 OPS+ club, if you barely relax the standards to 275 dingers and a 115 OPS+, the 10-person club boasts 17 members, including Beltre, Ken Boyer, Darrell Evans, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Glaus, Aramis Ramirez, and Josh Donaldson.

Rolen’s Size and Athleticism

Scott Rolen, listed at 6’4″ and 245 pounds on Baseball-Reference, is now by far the biggest third sacker to make the Hall of Fame. Only Chipper Jones (6’4″, 210 pounds) is even close. Rolen has the body type that would have assumed an eventual move to first base, as it was for other big-bodied third basemen of the last few decades, including Mark McGwire, Jim Thome, Albert Pujols, and Miguel Cabrera. The fact that he was able to remain at the hot corner for his entire 17-year career and perform at such a high level defensively is a testimony to his superior athleticism.

Tony La Russa, with his personal relationship healed with his former star third baseman, noted Rolen’s size before his induction into the Cardinals’ Hall of Fame in August 2019.

“Scott Rolen would be tied for first for the most amazing athlete I’ve ever seen on a baseball diamond.. Scott was a good-sized guy. He could have played in the NBA. He could have played in the NFL, size-wise. Scott was as good a defensive third baseman that the game has ever seen. He was an outstanding base runner. He was the high average hitter that could produce in big situations and hit for power.”

— Tony La Russa (August 24, 2019)

The BBWAA Ballot

As previously noted, the lowest first-ballot voting percentage for an eventual Hall of Famer elected by the BBWAA in the last 60 years belonged to Bob Lemon, who got 11.9% in 1964 (Walker got 20.3% in his first year before slipping to 10.2% in 2014). So, based on that history, Rolen’s first year at 10.2% in 2018 would not normally have foreshadowed a Cooperstown plaque via the BBWAA.

What did predict a more favorable outcome, however, is that the super-crowded ballot was unclogged recently after several years in which it was packed with more obvious Hall of Famers and the ballot-clogging PED superstars (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens).

Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina were inducted into the Hall of Fame with the Class of 2019. Fred McGriff exhausted his ten years of BBWAA eligibility and was elected last December by the Eras Committee. That opened five slots for voters who had felt squeezed by the limit of 10 names per ballot. Walker and Derek Jeter were elected in January 2021, with Walker having previously occupied space on multiple voter ballots. Finally, Bonds, Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa exhausted their ten years of eligibility on the 2022 ballot.

As the ballot clog has eased, as we noted earlier, Rolen surged in recent years, getting just under 53% in 2021 and just over 63% in 2022. Using myself as an example (as a “virtual” voter), I had Rolen ranked as the 11th best player in 2019 (and thus not on my virtual ballot) but had ranked him as the 7th best player in 2020, easily within the top 10. Many actual voters clearly agreed. For 2022, I had him at #4 and he was my #1 choice this year.

The Writers Speak

“Since 1967, there have been 670 players to get less than 15% support in their first year on the ballot. None have been elected by the writers. Why is Rolen the guy who can break this 0-for-670, 56-year streak? Modern metrics have taken a crack at measuring subtle skills in which Rolen flourished: defense and baserunning… If you appreciate how the game is played, and not just batting stats, Rolen played it like a Hall of Famer. The subtle beauty was in how he made plays on the run at third base or the perfect cut around a base as he went first to third or second to home.”

— Tom Verducci, si.com (Jan. 4, 2023)

Jeffrey Flanagan from mlb.com, who voted for Rolen for the first time on his 2020 ballot, echoed something I’ve felt for a long time, that the limit of 10 players per ballot has often forced writers to leave off players that they would have otherwise deemed worthy of Cooperstown.

“My biggest complaint about this system, though, is the limitation of voting for 10 players on the ballot. I will continue to bang the drum that we need a binary system for HOF voting — a simple yes or no on each eligible candidate. I have never understand why we need to limit the number of players we vote on. In many years there have been more than 10 players deserving, and in those years, those deserving players are often not voted for simply because of a flawed process.”

— Jeffrey Flanagan, mlb.com (Jan. 7, 2020)

Here are some other examples of the less-stacked ballots that resulted in flips from “no” to “yes” on Rolen in 2020:

“This is his third time on the ballot; his was the final name I crossed off my list in each of the past two years. Over the course of the 2019 season, I chatted with a few players and coaches who are familiar with Rolen. I kept hearing the same thing: Fantastic player, certainly Hall-worthy. A deeper dive into his numbers won me over.”

— Rob Biertempfel, The Athletic Pittsburgh (Dec. 30, 2019)

“I’ve reconsidered some past ballots and now am voting for Rolen, Sheffield and Walker because I think time and the full weight of the analytics age are serving them well. Frankly, they just look better as the top of my ballot has thinned out of the last few years and spaces have opened up.”

— Tim Kawakami, The Athletic Bay Area (Dec. 30, 2019)

These quotes also help explain how voters who are initially skeptical about a player’s worthiness for Cooperstown can become swayed over time:

“Here’s a guy whose career was clearly better in the rear-view mirror than you felt when you were watching him. His support is rapidly growing like Larry Walker’s did, and at a position that is oddly underrepresented.”

— Mike Harrington, Buffalo News (Jan. 22, 2021)

“I hadn’t voted for him (Rolen) in the past. Matt Chapman, in some ways, changed my view of Rolen. I watched Chapman play third base for the Blue Jays this past season and was incredibly impressed. I mentioned that to people in baseball I trust implicitly. They told me, great as Chapman might be defensively, Rolen was better.”

— Steve Simmons, Toronto Star (Dec. 27, 2022)

Despite all of the converts, there remained resistance to Rolen’s candidacy to the very end. Here’s one example of a writer who explained his ballot for 2023 and why Rolen’s name wasn’t on it:

“Rolen was a terrific defender at third base, as his eight Gold Gloves attest. But he was a good, not great, offensive performer. And over the course of a long career, Rolen had exactly one (1) season in which he earned Top 10 MVP votes. To me, some level of dominance should be expected from those enshrined in Cooperstown, and I didn’t see that in Rolen.”

— Sean McAdam, Boston Sports Journal (Dec. 31, 2022)

Scott Rolen’s Makes the Hall of Fame

The biggest thing that Rolen had going for him, as time passed, is that the composition of the BBWAA electorate has slowly become more analytically minded. Every year, there are more writers citing WAR and fewer citing hits and RBI. This helped him as the years went by.

I don’t believe in choosing Hall of Famer solely based on their WAR. There are three different versions of WAR (Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus) and the calculations change every year. For me, WAR is just one factor that I use to evaluate a player’s Cooperstown credentials. I also look at “old school” stats, postseason performance, and accolades. Rolen falls a little short on the old-school stats and in October (despite a couple of good series, he hit .220 with a .678 OPS in 39 postseason games).

However, when a player has a WAR of 70 or above and the reason for it (superior defensive metrics) is backed up by 8 Gold Gloves, that’s hard for me to overlook. I’m pleased that more than 75% of the BBWAA voters agreed. Congratulations, Scott, on your big day this Sunday!

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