Jeff Kent, after 10 Tries, Fails to Make the Hall of Fame

In a sense, the answer to the title of this piece can be summed up this way: Jeff Kent snuck up on the baseball world as a Hall of Fame-caliber player. Having bounced from the Blue Jays to the Mets to the Indians early in his career, Kent was an average player at best for five seasons in the major leagues before blossoming into a star in San Francisco.

Kent’s case for a plaque in Cooperstown is based on being one of the most prolific power hitters for a second baseman in the history of baseball. Among all players to log at least 50% of their appearances at the keystone, Kent has the most home runs, the second-highest slugging percentage, and the third most runs batted in.

Despite his prolific offensive resume, Kent has never gotten remotely close to the Hall of Fame, thanks to weak numbers on defense and on the basepaths, resulting in an underwhelming WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 55.4.

Kent was on the Hall of Fame ballot for the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) from 2014 to 2013. In his first 9 years on the ballot, he failed to get even as much as 33% of the vote, one which requires 75% for a Cooperstown plaque. With the longtime ballot backlog having dissipated, Kent supporters had hoped that his overlooked candidacy would start to gain some traction but that didn’t happen in the numbers necessary to get him to the Hall.

Last Tuesday, when the final BBWAA tallies for 2023 were revealed, Kent wound up with 46.5% of the vote, a nice increase of 13.8% from 2012 but not nearly enough to get into the Hall. There were 28 candidates on this year’s BBWAA ballot. Kent finished in a tie for 6th with Carlos Beltran, behind Scott Rolen (who was elected to the Hall of Fame), Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, and Gary Sheffield.

Kent was less than enthralled with the outcome.

“The voting over the years has been too much of a head-scratching embarrassment. Baseball is losing a couple generations of great players that were the best in their era because a couple non-voting stat folks keep comparing those players to players already voted in from generations past and are influencing the votes. It’s unfair to the best players in their own era and those already voted in, in my opinion.”

— Jeff Kent, San Francisco Chronicle (Jan. 25, 2023)

Still, history has shown as the players who get a bump of 10 or more percentage points in their final year with the BBWAA fare well in the future with the Eras Committee (which used to be called the Veterans Committee).

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In this piece, after a recap of Kent’s career highlights, I’ll explain why I still feel that more than half of the writers are wrong, why Kent deserves to be honored with a plaque in the Hall of Fame, and why I believe he’ll make it in three years.

Cooperstown Cred: Jeff Kent (2B)

10 years on the BBWAA ballot (received 46.5% of the vote in 2022)

• Blue Jays (1992), Mets (1992-96), Indians (1996), Giants (1997-2002), Astros (2003-04), Dodgers (2005-08)
• Career: .290 BA, .356 OBP, .500 SLG, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 Hits
• Career: 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR
• 377 HR: most all-time for 2B (behind Rogers Hornsby)
• 1,518 RBI: third most-all-time for 2B (behind Hornsby & Nap Lajoie)
• .500 slugging %: second best all-time for 2B (behind Hornsby)
• 2000 NL MVP (.334 BA, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 162 OPS+, 7.2 WAR)
• 5-time All-Star
• 4-time Silver Slugger

(Cover photo: Associated Press/Bob Galbraith)

Portions of this piece were originally published on August 20th, 2017. This is an updated version at the end of Kent’s 10 years of eligibility with the BBWAA.

Career Highlights

Jeffrey Franklin Kent was born on March 7, 1968, in Bellflower, California, and grew up in Huntington Beach (which is in the Orange County section of the greater Los Angeles area). His father Alan, a motorcycle cop, was a disciplinarian who instilled in young Jeff an intense desire to achieve perfection at whatever he was doing, whether it was baseball, surfing, or motocross.

Known later in his Major League Baseball career for his intensity, Kent clashed with both his high school baseball coach and his college coach at the University of California at Berkeley.

At the age of 21, Kent was selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 20th round of the 1989 June player draft. After 2 1/2 seasons in the minor leagues, Kent debuted in the major league with Toronto in 1992, playing mostly at 3rd base while filling in for the injured Kelly Gruber. Although the rookie hit just .240 with the Blue Jays, he showed impressive power, with 8 home runs and 13 doubles in 222 plate appearances.

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The Jays, a great team looking to bolster their starting pitching for the stretch run, traded Kent to the New York Mets late in August for David Cone, who helped them to their first World Series championship. Cone was extremely popular with Mets fans and, when Kent got off to a slow start with the bat, the boo birds really let him have it.

Kent also got off to a slow start in the clubhouse. In mid-September, he was targeted by an old initiation rite when some of his teammates removed his clothes from his locker, replacing them with purple knickers worn by broadcaster Lindsey Nelson. Kent, who had been through a similar hazing ritual with the Jays earlier in the season, was not amused and refused to play along.

1992-96: New York Mets

From August ’92 through the end of the 1995 season, Jeff Kent was the Not So Amazin’s regular 2nd baseman. In ’93, his first full season as a starting player, Kent established his reputation as a good-hit, no-field infielder by hitting 21 home runs while driving in 80 and committing 22 errors (which led all N.L. second sackers).

In 1994, the strike-shortened season, Kent hit .292 with 14 HR and 68 RBI. He led all N.L. second basemen in errors again, with 14. Even so, the news wasn’t all bad defensively. He was 2nd in the league in assists and double plays turned while recording the 3rd most putouts. Total Zone Runs (a statistic that didn’t exist at the time) puts Kent in a tie for 4th defensively in the league.

At the age of 27, Kent remained a steady but unspectacular presence in the Mets lineup; he hit .278 with 20 HR and 65 HR while again finishing in a tie for 4th in Total Zone Runs for 2nd sackers. Considering that he never received any All-Star consideration, it might surprise the reader to know that his 55 home runs from 1993-95 were tied (with Carlos Baerga) for the most among all second basemen in Major League Baseball.

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Although he played respectably at the keystone, there was always a feeling that Kent belonged at the hot corner; he was moved there for the 1996 season. In the first few months of the season, his power dipped a bit (9 HR in his first 361 PA). Shortly before the trading deadline, Kent was dealt to Cleveland with second baseman Jose Vizcaino in a four-player deal that brought Baerga to New York.

A Few Months in Cleveland

The trade of Jeff Kent to Cleveland was a bit of a shocker because Baerga was very popular in Cleveland and considered a rising star (having made three All-Star teams already). Baerga was 8 months younger than Kent and, prior to the 1996 season, if you asked 100 fans to pick which 2nd baseman would be a future Hall of Famer, likely 100 would have picked Baerga. Scott Mansfield of the Dayton News-Journal called Baerga “Cleveland’s version” of Cal Ripken Jr., Tony Gwynn, or Kirby Puckett.

However, in ’96, Baerga was having an injury-plagued mediocre season and was battling issues with his weight. General Manager John Hart, at the time, referred to the trade as one that would “strengthen our ballclub, especially on defense.” As it turned out, Baerga would never be the player the Mets had thought they were trading for.

As for Kent, he only spent a couple of months in Cleveland, serving as a utility player on a team that finished the season with 99 wins and their 2nd straight A.L. Central title. In 116 plate appearances, he had a lowly .749 OPS. In the playoffs, the defending A.L. pennant winners were bounced in the ALDS by the Baltimore Orioles. Kent went 1 for 8 with no RBI in his first postseason opportunity.

Summing up Jeff Kent’s First Five Seasons

Through that age 28 season (1996 with Cleveland), Jeff Kent’s career WAR was 10.3.

There are currently 167 position players in the Hall of Fame (excluding the Negro League Hall of Famers, for whom the statistical record is incomplete). Of all of them, only five had a WAR of less than 10.3 through their age 28 seasons (Jackie Robinson, Bill Terry, Earl Averill, Sam Rice, and David Ortiz). Robinson got a late start in the bigs because of the color barrier so there are really only four of them who had such inauspicious early years in their respective careers.

Most Hall of Famers announce themselves to the world early: from their first to third seasons, they look, feel, and smell like future Cooperstown inductees. The late bloomers are just plain rare: since they’re not on our radar as future Hall of Famers, we sometimes fail to notice what they’ve actually accomplished when their career is over.

This is the irony: look at the list of famous teammates that Kent had in Toronto, New York, and Cleveland and marvel at how improbable it was that Kent might be a potential future Hall of Famer. The actual Hall of Famers are in boldface.

Toronto (1992): Dave Winfield, Roberto Alomar, Jack Morris, John Olerud, Joe Carter, Jimmy Key, Dave Stieb, and David Cone.

New York (’92-’96): Eddie Murray, Dwight Gooden, Bret Saberhagen, John Franco

Cleveland (1996): Murray, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, Orel Hershiser, Dennis Martinez.

Winfield, Alomar, Murray, Thome, and Morris are in Cooperstown but many of those other names were looked upon as potential Hall of Famers while they playing. Vizquel and Ramirez are on the 2023 ballot. Jeff Kent wasn’t in the conversation as an All-Star or even a solid regular player, much less a future Cooperstown inductee.

A Trade to San Francisco: a Star Emerges

After the ’96 season, another trade sent Jeff Kent to the San Francisco Giants, near his alma mater at UC Berkeley. The deal to the Giants put him in the perfect situation that turned his career around. Besides his poor fielder rep, Kent had the reputation for not being a good teammate.

With the Giants, he had the perfect players’ manager in Dusty Baker, who saw a hard-nosed player and not a bad attitude player. Dusty also showed confidence in Kent by inserting him mostly into the cleanup role, putting him behind a player (Barry Bonds) who was the ideal teammate to hit behind. Although Bonds and Kent had a few documented issues of personal conflict, they were fantastic teammates on the field.

In the City by the Bay, Kent became an instant star. For 9 straight seasons (including three in other cities), Kent hit no less than 22 home runs and drove in no less than 93 runs (both totals which were higher than his previous career highs).

Take a look at the year-by-year numbers for Jeff Kent in San Francisco.

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In 1997, Bonds and Kent led the Giants to their first N.L. West title since 1989. Besides his blossoming bat, Kent was 3rd in the N.L. in Total Zone Runs for second basemen. He would finish the season in 8th place in the MVP vote.

Matched up against the Florida Marlins in the NLDS, the Giants lost the first two games in Miami to the league’s Wild Card entrant. Kent went 0 for 6 in those first two contests. Back in San Francisco for Game 3, the Giants’ second sacker went 3 for 4 with two solo home runs but, unfortunately, his teammates managed only four other hits in a 6-2 loss.

Kent improved significantly in 1998, establishing new career highs in all three slash line categories, home runs, doubles, RBI, and runs scored. With the Giants out of the playoffs, Kent still finished 9th in the MVP balloting.

1999-2000: An All-Star and MVP

At the age of 31, Jeff Kent made his first All-Star squad in 1999, although it ultimately was a down year compared to the previous two. Still, he joined Bonds, Willie McCovey and Willie Mays as the only San Francisco Giants to drive in 100 runs for three consecutive seasons. 1999 was the final season in which the Giants would call Candlestick Park their home.

It was in the new century (the year 2000) and in a new ballpark (Pacific Bell Park) that Kent had his signature campaign, the one that earned him MVP honors over his more acclaimed teammate. While playing solid defense, Kent blew away his previous career slash line bests while slugging 33 homers, hitting 41 doubles, driving in 125 runs, and scoring 114.

With Bonds also having a typically big season, the Giants won 97 games and the N.L. West despite an average staff ERA of 4.21 (yes, 4.21 was “average” in 2000). Kent his .375 in the NLDS against the New York Mets but the Giants still fell short again, losing in 4 Games to the New Yorkers.

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2002: N.L. Pennant Winners

In 2001, although he made his third straight All-Star squad at the age of 33, Jeff Kent had a bit of an off-year. Despite Bonds’ record-setting 73 home runs, the Giants failed to make the playoffs.

In 2002, Kent had what was arguably the second-best offensive season of his entire career. In the meantime, Bonds was intentionally walked 68 times, depressing his home run total to a mere 46. Still, he slashed a ridiculous .370/.582/.799. The Bonds-Kent tandem, without any other players having star seasons, led the team to 95 wins, which was good enough for the N.L. Wild Card.

Finally, these two stars would have the chance to appear in the World Series. The Giants defeated the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS (in 5 games) and the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS (also in 5 games), setting up a Fall Classic matchup against the Anaheim Angels. Kent hit only .263 with one RBI in the first 10 postseason tilts but Bonds’ notoriously cold October bat was on fire this year; he posted a 1.286 OPS with 4 HR and 10 RBI in the playoffs’ first two rounds.

Kent’s playoff slump continued in the first four games of the World Series; he hit just .188 with a solo home run and two RBI. The tater, a solo shot in the 3rd inning of Game 2, was overshadowed by other highlights in the Angels’ 11-10 victory.

The Giants and Angels split those first four games of the series. In Game 5, Kent’s bat woke up. He went 3 for 5 with 2 home runs, 4 RBI, and 4 runs scored in a 16-4 victory.

It was Game 6 in Anaheim that the Giants should have sealed the deal. When Kent delivered an RBI single off Francisco Rodriguez in the top of the 7th inning, it gave San Francisco a 5-0 lead. Unfortunately and famously, Dusty Baker used five pitchers who gave up a combined 6 runs in the 7th and 8th innings. Kent was in the on-deck circle in the top of the 9th when Angels’ closer Troy Percival struck out Rich Aurilia to end the game.

The next night the Giants lost Game 7 by a 4-1 score; Jeff Kent went 0 for 4. His final at bat in a Giants uniform was a strikeout at the hands of the rookie Rodriguez. All told, Kent hit .269 with a .781 OPS in October. After the season, he finished 6th in the MVP vote.

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2003-04: Houston Astros

After 6 productive seasons in San Francisco, Jeff Kent signed a two-year free-agent contract with the Houston Astros, moving teammate and future Hall of Famer Craig Biggio to the outfield. Baker’s contract had not been renewed by the Giants despite the World Series appearance; Kent cited that as the primary reason why he decided to move on.

Now 35 upon suiting up for the Astros, Kent’s production dipped slightly, but just slightly. In his first year in Houston, the right-handed-hitting slugger hit .297 with 22 HR, 93 RBI, and a 119 OPS+.

Kent rebounded a bit in 2004. He made his fourth All-Star team, hitting .289 with 27 HR, 107 RBI, 96 Runs, and a 123 OPS+. Despite the star power of Kent, Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and Lance Berkman to go with a rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt, the team was just 44-44 when manager Jimy Williams was fired, replaced by Phil Garner.

Houston’s new skipper was, like Kent, a hard-nosed right-handed hitting second sacker as a player, one who went by the nickname “Scrap Iron.” Helped by the mid-season acquisition of Carlos Beltran, the Astros went 48-26 under Garner, which was good enough to edge the Giants by one game in the N.L. Wild Card chase. Kent did his part, hitting .293 with 17 HR and 55 RBI in 69 games under Garner.

2004 Postseason

Although Pettitte was out for the season, the Astros entered the postseason with momentum and the aforementioned star power. The Astros were matched up against the Atlanta Braves, who had whipped Houston in three previous NLDS contests. This time, however, they were no match for Beltran (.455 BA, 1.591 OPS, 4 HR, 9 RBI); the Astros won the series in 5 games. (Kent’s bat was relatively quiet in the series; he hit .227 with 0 HR and 3 RBI).

In Game 1 of the NLCS against St. Louis, Kent hit a tie-breaking two-run home run off Woody Williams to give Houston a 4-2 lead in the 4th inning. The lead would not hold, however, as the Cardinals won 10-7. After another Game 2 loss, Game 3 was a crucial contest for the Astros at Minute Maid Park. In the bottom of the 1st inning, Kent swatted a two-run tater off Jeff Suppan to give Houston a 3-1 lead, a lead that would hold in a 5-2 win.

After a Game 4 win, Kent’s signature moment came in Game 5 when he hit a walk-off 3-run home run off Jason Isringhausen to give the Astros a 3-0 victory and a 3-2 series lead. Unfortunately for Kent and the Astros, the Redbirds won the next two games to advance to the Fall Classic.

2005-08: Los Angeles Dodgers

After two seasons in Houston, Jeff Kent spent the final four years of his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team that he rooted for in his youth. It was a special reunion. He invited his parents to the press conference announcing his signing with the Dodgers but didn’t tell them why they were there.

In 2005, Kent maintained his productivity with the bat, hitting 29 HR with 105 RBI, 100 Runs, and a 133 OPS+. He made his 5th and final All-Star team and won his 4th and final Silver Slugger for being the best-hitting second baseman in the league.

Kent played for three different managers during his four years in Chavez Ravine: Jim Tracy (in 2005), Grady Little (in 2006-07), and future Hall of Famer Joe Torre (in 2008). Now in his late 30’s, Kent was plagued by injuries in the final three seasons of his career (all with the Dodgers). He averaged just 124 games per season although he still managed to post a more than respectable 114 OPS+.

In 2006, the Dodgers were the N.L. Wild Card team, giving Kent his 6th postseason opportunity. The Dodgers were swept in the NLDS in 3 Games by the Mets but not because of what Kent did. Down 2 games to none, as the series moved to Dodger Stadium, Kent hit a 2-run home run in the bottom of the 5th to tie the score at 4. Although the Mets would go on to win 9-5, Kent went 4 for 5; for the series, he hit .615 with a 1.538 OPS.

Jeff Kent’s final MLB season was in 2008. Bothered by a bad back and arthroscopic knee surgery, he was limited to 121 games, including just 4 in September because of the surgery. In the postseason, Torre used him off the bench. Kent went 0 for 9 as the Dodgers swept the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS but lost in 5 Games to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS.

Kent officially retired on January 22, 2009.

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The Hall of Fame Case for Jeff Kent

After being an average starting player in the major leagues until he was 29 years old, Jeff Kent turned himself into a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate by the time he left the game 12 seasons later. At first glance, when you look at his power numbers at a key defensive position, it looks like there should be no debate whatsoever: he not only has the most home runs all-time for a 2nd baseman (377), he is WAY ahead of the man in 2nd place, Robinson Cano, who has 335. (Cano, as most fans know, has twice been suspended for PED use and seems to be finished as an MLB player).

To break down the home run totals further, Kent also has the most home runs when specifically playing second base, with a total of 351. Cano has the second most with 316. (Kent hit 26 home runs during his career when starting at other positions).

Kent had over 20 home runs and 100 RBI in 8 different campaigns. Among second sackers, all-time great Rogers Hornsby did that just 5 times, nobody else more than 4.

Comparing Jeff Kent to Hall of Famers Alomar and Biggio

Let’s look at how Kent compares to the last three second sackers inducted into the Hall (Biggio, Ryne Sandberg, and Roberto Alomar). All three were elected by the writers in their 2nd or 3rd turns on the ballot so if we can establish that Kent is in their league, then he should de facto be a Hall of Famer. Let’s start with traditional batting statistics, including OPS+ (which adjusts for ballpark effects and hitting era, with 100 being the league average):

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We can see that Kent dominates the power stats, Biggio dominates the “longevity” stats and Alomar is the on-base and speed king.

The Components of WAR

Next, we’re going to break down Wins Above Replacement into its component parts: batting, fielding, base-running, and double-play avoidance. It’s not crucial to understand precisely how the numbers are calculated. What they represent is the best approximation of the number of runs each player created (or saved) above or below that of a replacement-level player (defined as someone you could find at AAA, the top level of the minor leagues).

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I included the last two columns (All-Star appearances and Gold Gloves Awards) to help explain why Kent is struggling in the Hall of Fame balloting while the other three made it into the Hall fairly easily. They all established themselves as stars early in their careers. This is the Hall of Fame and they became famous early:

• Sandberg won the NL MVP in 1984, which was just his third full season in the majors, his age 24 season.
• Alomar, the son of a major leaguer, made his first All-Star game at the age of 22 and was a cog on two World Championship teams before his 26th birthday.
• Biggio made his first All-Star team at 25 and of course, he achieved the benchmark of 3,000 hits.

It’s interesting (and very surprising) that the “WAR runs fielding” puts 10-time Gold Glove winner Alomar into the same class of mediocrity as Kent and that Biggio was even worse. Still, while Kent’s OPS+ and WAR Batting show him to have been the superior offensive force, he wasn’t dramatically better than the others (except for the home runs) and he did not add the base-running value of all the others or the defensive value of Sandberg.

Biggio and Alomar were Kent’s peers, both within 3 years of age; the three players had significant overlap in their careers so if the former two can be considered demonstrably better overall players at the same position during the same era, it’s reasonable to question whether Kent deserves to join them in Cooperstown.

For whatever it’s worth to you, Kent’s career WAR of 55.4 is lower than the more recent inductees at the position but is better than that of seven older second sackers inducted in the past. Still, it’s also significantly lower than non-Hall of Fame 2nd basemen Lou Whitaker (75.1), Bobby Grich (71.1), and Willie Randolph (65.9).

On the other hand, using an all-encompassing metric invented by Bill James, Kent has 331 career Win Shares. That’s below Biggio (428), Alomar (377), and Sandberg (346), but it’s ahead of Grich (329), Randolph (312), and Chase Utley (291), who is a popular upcoming BBWAA candidate in the sabermetric community. (For the record, James credits Whitaker with 351).

The Bonds Effect

There’s also the question about whether Jeff Kent’s batting numbers (in particular his RBI stats) are in small part the result of the good fortune of having spent six seasons mostly hitting behind Barry Bonds and two more mostly behind Jeff Bagwell, two of the best on-base guys in the era.

In 1997, his first year hitting behind Barry, Kent had 532 runners on base for his 651 plate appearances, an average of 0.82 base runners per plate appearance. In his previous career, the combined rate was 0.65 runners per plate appearance. That’s an increase of over 25%, which contributed to a career-best 121 RBI, blowing away his previous career-high of 80.

Kent, however, deserves credit for delivering on the opportunities he was presented with. Starting with his reinvention season of 1997, look at how Kent performed in several key on-base situations, compared to all plate appearances:

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These numbers help explain why, from 1997-2008, Kent had the sixth most RBI of any player in baseball while posting an OPS+ of 125, a very solid number (especially for a 2nd baseman). Kent had the good fortune of hitting in favorable circumstances but he came through in the clutch.

Jeff Kent’s Peak (1997-2006)

Finally, the bottom line is that, if you take a 10-year stretch of time (that breakthrough 1997 season through 2006), for all 2nd basemen with at least 3,000 plate appearances, Jeff Kent is #1 in home runs, RBI, slugging, OPS+, and WAR (and way ahead in most of those categories).  Look at the numbers:

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Not on the chart but also noteworthy is that, among the 12 second baseman who qualified (with at least 3,000 PA over 10 years), Kent’s WAR runs from fielding are 4th best, and actually better than the numbers for Biggio and Alomar.

So, even if you don’t believe the defensive metrics and say what you will about him being a mediocre fielder, this man was by far and away the dominant hitter at his position for a decade. Beyond that, he has the most home runs ever (by a wide margin) at his position. He has the most RBI in the last 100 years at his position and, as we’ve seen, deserved those RBI by performing at a high level in situations with runners in scoring position.

Let’s Rig the Leader Boards in Favor of Alomar and Biggio

It’s fair to point out that you can take ten-year periods of time for many different players at many different positions and make Hall of Famers out of them. Any player at his peak has the potential to look better than his contemporaries who are on the front or back ends of their peak productivity. So, to be fair, let’s take an 11-year look at the top MLB 2nd basemen from 1991-2001 (using 11 years to include the best years for both Biggio and Alomar). Kent debuted in 1992 so this comparison will include the first ten seasons of his career including the early years when he had yet to establish himself as a star.

The years selected are rigged for Alomar and Biggio just as the other chart was rigged for Kent.

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Even when given a 6-year handicap (1991, when he didn’t play, and 1992-1996, the relatively slow start to his career), Kent still fares well here, especially with respect to the power numbers. And, for these 11 years, Kent has a higher WAR from fielding than his already enshrined Cooperstown contemporaries. You can believe the numbers or choose not to, but those numbers are telling us that Kent was a better fielder than Alomar or Biggio from 1991-2001.

For these reasons, in my view, Jeff Kent is a Hall of Fame player.

Why Kent Did Poorly in the Hall of Fame Vote:

The preponderance of Hall of Fame voters have not to date agreed with my assessment. In his first six years on the BBWAA ballot, Jeff Kent’s vote percentage held steady at between 14% and 18%, far, far, away from the 75% needed for election. From 2020 to 2022, with ballots less stacked than all that preceded them, many players saw their vote percentages surge: Kent’s did too but not by enough, from 18.1% in 2019 to 32.4% in 2021 and 32.7% in 2022.

By comparison, Scott Rolen has jumped from 17.2% to 63.2% from 2019 to 2022;  Todd Helton’s support has increased from 16.5% to 52.0%; Billy Wagner has zoomed up from 16.7% to 51.0%; Gary Sheffield has gone up from 13.6% to 40.6%. All four of those players had vote shares less than Kent’s in 2019 but have sped past him from 2020 to 2022.

There’s a small nucleus of writers who believe in him but not even close to enough to make him a lobbying cause. So why has he been forgotten by the vast majority of the writers who vote on the Hall of Fame?

The answers are really quite simple. First, as we’ve discussed, he was such a late-bloomer that people just never considered him to be a Hall of Fame-caliber player. The second is that, for the sabermetrically inclined writers, his career WAR of 55.4 is lower than many others on the ballot.

There’s a third factor that may or may not have slightly depressed Kent’s support among the members of BBWAA. Kent was quite prickly with the media, myself included. If you’ve got lots of players to choose from and he’s at the bottom of your list of ten (the maximum any writer can vote for), human nature sometimes comes into play.

The Scribes Weight In

Let’s take a sample of the reasons why some writers have chosen to check Kent’s name on their ballots and reasons why others haven’t. We’ll start with some of those in favor:

“I’ve changed my mind the longer he has on the ballot and now he is in his 10^th and final year. I didn’t vote for Kent when he first became eligible for the Hall in 2012 but his .290 career batting over 17 seasons with 377 home runs clearly makes him one of the best second basemen ever. And just to prove that my ballot isn’t a popularity contest, I can unequivocally say Kent is one of the least-favorite players I have ever dealt with.”

— John Perotto, Pittsburgh Baseball Now (Dec. 29, 2022)

“I’ve never quite understood why he (Kent) gets so little respect, other than the fact that the WARmongers, with all their formulas, relentlessly disparage his defense. And yet, in 17 seasons he was never moved off second base… Yes, he was a prickly interview at timse for the writers, but unlike his truly surly Giants teammate Bonds, in the height of the steroids era, Kent played the game clean. I don’t know what else the guy was supposed to do to prove himself a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill Madden, New York Daily News (Dec. 13, 2020)

“Being the best power hitting second baseman in history is a main reason he made this ballot. Kent hit 377 home runs, including 351 as a second baseman. The closest second baseman was Rogers Hornsby, who hit 301. We acknowledge that Hornsby had 325 fewer at-bats than Kent, but the 50- home run difference (as second basemen) is still jaw dropping, especially for a position that isn’t known for power.”

— Marc Narducci, Philadelphia Inquirer (Dec. 25, 2022)

Next, a look at some writers who chose not to check Kent’s name:

“I know it’s wrong, but I feel the same way about Jeff Kent that I felt last year and the year before that and the year before that, which is to say that I totally see his Hall of Fame argument — second baseman who hit a lot of home runs, drove in a lot of runs and won an MVP — but I just don’t find that argument compelling or interesting.”

— Joe Posnanski, JoeBlogs (Jan. 25, 2022)

“Kent was not an elite defensive second baseman who was also a very good hitter. He was a very good hitter who played a mildly competent second base because it was the best fit for his defensive skills, or lack thereof… Also, the Hall of Fame isn’t just about one facet of a player’s game… You have to show me more than just home runs… He was not great with the glove, putting it kindly, which is a big part of being a second baseman… Looking at the complete profile, I’m passing on Kent.”

— Ryan Fagan, The Sporting News (Jan. 3, 2023)

“In the end, Kent’s 45.6 JAWS is 11.5 points below the Hall standard for second basemen, 21st all-time, below 12 of the 20 Hall of Famers and too far to be made up for by the parts of his resumé that the system doesn’t capture… When Kent debuted on the 2014 ballot, I noted that it was rare that my own system surprised me to such an extent, as the distance between him and the Hall of Fame standard for second baseman is one of those cases where the data runs counter to my gut feeling. That said, it bears remembering that Kent played in such a high-offense era that 40 players with at least 5,000 plate appearances over the span of his career (1992–2008) surpassed his OPS+, in contrast to only six surpassing his RBI total, and it was the ribbies that made his reputation.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Nov. 29, 2022)

Conclusion

This was Kent’s 10th turn on the BBWAA ballot. Considering Kent’s prodigious offensive record, I still find his lack of support strikingly odd. We know he has the most home runs in baseball history for a second baseman. We know he has the most RBI in the last 100 years for a second-sacker.

For the analytically minded, he has the most “WAR Runs from batting” and the second-highest OPS+ with a minimum of 8,000 PA (to the PED-tainted Robinson Cano) in the last 40 years. But for all the reasons cited previously, not enough voters consider that to be sufficient.

Despite his disappointment with the BBWAA vote, I think he’ll be a strong candidate for the Eras Committee when he’s eligible for the “Today’s Game” vote in December 2025 (for the Hall of Fame Class of 2026).

For one thing, Kent has history on his side. It might surprise you to know that almost every BBWAA candidate who gets at least 40% of the vote at some point in their time on the ballot eventually gets voted in by the Eras Committee (what used to be known as the Veterans Committee). The only exceptions are these:

• Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling, who were all turned down by the Eras Committee last December. Bonds and Clemens, of course, have the taint of links to PEDs while Schilling has made himself a controversial figure due to his outspoken political views.
• Steve Garvey got over 40% three times (his best effort was 42.6% in 1995).
• Roger Maris finished with 43.1% in 1988.
• The late Maury Wills got 40.6% in 1981.
• Marty Marion received 40.0% of the vote in 1970.

You’ll notice that none of the examples not named Bonds, Clemens, or Schilling got as much as Kent’s 46.5%.

There’s something else in Kent’s favor for the future. The Eras Committee panels (which contain 16 voters, including multiple Hall of Famers), tend to support big, simple numbers and “fame” narratives.

Three cases in point: Jack Morris (254 wins, postseason ace), Lee Smith (478 saves), and Fred McGriff (493 HR) were the top vote-getters when they were presented to the Eras Committee (Morris for the Class of 2018, Smith for 2019, McGriff for the Class of 2023). Smith and McGriff were unanimous selections.

I submit that “most HR ever for a second baseman” will play well with the 2025 committee and that Kent will be on stage getting a plaque in Cooperstown in the summer of 2026.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig

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