Gary Sheffield Inches Closer but is Falling Short of the Hall of Fame

Gary Sheffield, one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for 22 years, is on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) Hall of Fame ballot for the 10th and final time right now, with the results scheduled to be announced next Tuesday.

For 14 years (a remarkably long time for a player’s “peak”), Sheffield posted a slash line of a .304 batting average, a .411 on-base percentage, and a .551 slugging percentage. His ballpark-adjusted OPS+ was 153 (53% above league average), the fourth-best among all hitters from 1992-2005 (behind only Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and Manny Ramirez).

Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe, in his bio/analysis piece about Sheffield’s Hall of Fame candidacy, described him this way:

“At the plate, Sheffield was viscerally impressive like few others. With his bat twitching back and forth like the tail of a tiger waiting to pounce, he was pure menace in the batter’s box.”

— Jay Jaffe (FanGraphs, December 8, 2021)

“Every time I ever stepped into a batter’s box, I wanted to destroy whoever was on the mound. In my mind, that guy was trying to take food off my table and I would bite them if it meant me getting a hit.”

— Gary Sheffield (Where I’m Coming From, Players Tribune, July 14, 2016)

Sheffield was the kind of elite hitter that other teams had to plan around. Although he rarely led the league in any offensive category (black type on his baseball card or Baseball-Reference page), his overall offensive numbers scream “Hall of Famer.” What hurts his case, from an on-field performance standpoint, is that he was a weak player defensively. Still, if it weren’t for his name being mentioned in the Mitchell Report on steroids, Sheffield would almost certainly have a plaque in Cooperstown already.

To get elected to the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA, a player needs 75% of the total vote. With super-stacked ballots, Sheffield tallied between 11% and 14% in his first five tries. In the 2020 vote, however, Sheffield’s vote share zoomed up to 30.5%, more than doubling his previous support from the writers. Then, in 2021, he made another significant gain, to 40.6%, but remained in proverbial quicksand in 2022, getting precisely 40.6% again. Last year, he surged to 55.5%, but that’s a long way from 75%, and he has only one more bite at the BBWAA apple.

Based on the first 175 votes to be publicly revealed, Sheffield is currently showing 73.7% support on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker. That theoretically sounds promising, but the tracker almost always overestimates a player’s final support, and the number sags when the final tallies are revealed. There is no chance he will make the Hall next week.

Given that two all-time greats (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens) were ultimately rejected by the writers (and, in December 2022, by the Eras Committee), it seems like a near impossibility that Sheffield would ever make the Hall of Fame. This is because of the links of all three men to PEDs (Performance Enhancing Drugs). Sheffield’s PED story, however, is quite different than Bonds’ or Clemens’s,’ which, as I’ll explain later, could ultimately put him in a category all to his own.

In this piece, I’ll document all the reasons, briefly recap Sheffield’s career, analyze where he ranks among the game’s great hitters in the 1990s and 2000s, and offer a thumbs up or down for his Cooperstown candidacy.

Cooperstown Cred: Gary Sheffield (OF)

10th Year on the BBWAA Ballot in 2024 (received 55.0% of the vote in 2023)

• Brewers (1988-91), Padres (1992-93), Marlins (1993-98), Dodgers (1998-2001), Braves (2002-03), Yankees (2004-06), Tigers (2007-08), Mets (2009)
• Career: .292 BA, 509 HR, 1,676 RBI, 2,689 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 60.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 9-time All-Star
• 5-time Silver Slugger
• 6 times in the Top 10 of MVP Voting
• Member of 1997 World Series Champion Florida Marlins
• Hit .320 with 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1.061 OPS in the 1997 postseason

(cover photo: Dodger Blue)

Gary Sheffield Career Highlights

Gary Antonian Sheffield, born on November 18, 1968, in Tampa, Florida, was famous before he ever played Major League Baseball. Sheffield’s uncle is Dwight Gooden.

If you’re scratching your head about the math, Sheffield is just four years younger than his Uncle Dwight. Gooden, the younger brother of Sheffield’s mother, was more of an older brother than an uncle. The two boys shared a room growing up in Belmont Heights, a neighborhood in East Tampa.

Sheffield learned how to hit a fastball by hitting against his young uncle.

“We’re all products of our environment. I think that’s especially true for baseball players… Baseball is not something you just pick up if you’re a good athlete. To become a standout player, it takes discipline, passion, instincts and, in my case, a few bruised ribs… That was my reward if I ever got a hit off my mom’s little brother. You probably know him better as Doc Gooden.”

— Gary Sheffield (Where I’m Coming From, Players Tribune, July 14, 2016)

Doc Gooden’s nephew was the 6th overall draft pick (by the Milwaukee Brewers) in the 1986 June player draft. By the time Sheffield was drafted, his uncle had become one of the most famous players in baseball. Gooden’s first two seasons were filled with records; in ’85, Doctor K went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA and was a unanimous choice for the N.L. Cy Young.

Sheffield was 17 years old when drafted. He blitzed his way through the minor leagues and made his MLB debut with the Brewers in September 1988 at the age of 19.

After an 0 for 10 start, Sheffield’s first MLB hit was a solo home run; it came off the Seattle Mariners’ Mark Langston. In the 11th inning, with the score tied at 1 and Langston still on the bump for the M’s, Sheffield won the game with a walk-off RBI single.

Milwaukee Brewers (1988-1991)

Despite the fame and hype, Gary Sheffield’s tenure in Milwaukee was noteworthy more for its controversy than for his performance.

Sheffield was drafted as a shortstop, a position to which he was obviously ill-suited. In 268 minor league games, Sheffield committed 87 errors. Sheffield played shortstop only in September ’88 and was the Brewers’ starter at that position on Opening Day 1989.

It was a tough ride in the early going for the young prospect, who struggled at the plate and in the field for the first 80 games of ’89. He hit just .248 with just 29 RBI despite mostly hitting 3rd in the lineup.

Controversy swirled around Sheffield in ’89. There was a misdiagnosed foot injury, a demotion to AAA, and, upon his return to the major leagues, a move from shortstop to third base. The shift to third was the right baseball move for the Brewers but Sheffield felt it was racially motivated (the new shortstop, Bill Spiers, was white).

Sheffield had a solid campaign in 1990 (.294 BA, 10 HR, 67 RBI, 25 SB) but 1991 was a nightmare. Limited to just 50 games due to shoulder and wrist injuries, he hit just .194 in what would be his final year with the Brewers.

“Milwaukee wasn’t my kind of team. Far as I was concerned, Milwaukee was hell… From what I could see, white players got preferential treatment, and it made me angry.”

— Gary Sheffield, in his book Inside Power (reported in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, April 17, 2007)

Sheffield had several highly respected teammates during his four years in Milwaukee (including Hall of Famers Robin Yount and Paul Molitor) but it just didn’t work. Regarding his time with the Brewers, Sheffield did write that he “loved” manager Tom Trebelhorn “like a father.”

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All in all, in four partial seasons with the Brew Crew, the young Gary Sheffield hit just 21 home runs (in 1,244 plate appearances), posting a below-average 95 OPS+ to go with sub-par work in the field.

There was talk that Sheffield hated Milwaukee and General Manager Harry Dalton so much that he actually deliberately committed an error or two. That narrative, which has dogged Sheffield ever since was thoroughly chronicled and debunked in the piece by Jay Jaffe.

San Diego Padres (1992-1993)

Gary Sheffield, still just 23 years old, escaped his hell in Milwaukee when he was traded in March 1992 to the San Diego Padres.

Manager Greg Riddoch instantly installed his new third baseman into the #3 hole in the lineup. Sheffield was sandwiched in between future Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn and slugger Fred McGriff, who was elected just this past December.

Sheffield won the N.L. batting crown in his first year with the Padres, hitting .330. He also hit 33 home runs, drove in 100 runs, posted a 168 OPS+ (68% above average), and a 6.2 WAR. For this, he was third in the MVP voting (behind Barry Bonds and Terry Pendleton) and made his first All-Star squad.

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Sheffield’s stay in San Diego didn’t last long, however. As an arbitration-eligible player, his salary skyrocketed from $750,000 to $3,110,000. With new owner Tom Werner instituting a massive payroll draw-down, Sheffield and McGriff were both traded in the summer of 1993. The Crime Dog drew the long straw, getting traded to the two-time N.L. Champion Atlanta Braves.

Sheffield was dealt to the expansion Florida Marlins in a deal that brought a rookie right-handed relief pitcher (Trevor Hoffman, a future Hall of Famer) to San Diego.

Florida Marlins (1993-1998)

Between San Diego and Florida, Gary Sheffield followed up his spectacular 1992 campaign with a decent but less productive season. He finished the season with 20 taters, 73 RBI, and a 120 OPS+. His fielding at the hot corner, however, was brutal. With 34 errors, he had a .899 fielding percentage.

The Marlins signed their young star to a four-year, $22.45 million contract and then promptly moved him to right field. Sheffield worked hard to learn his new position and, although hardly a star, was less of a defensive liability than he had been at third.

Two separate injuries and the players’ strike limited Sheffield to just 150 games in 1994 and 1995, but when he was able to play, he hit at a high level. In those 150 games, Sheff hit 43 home runs with 124 RBI and a 158 OPS+.

Fully healthy in 1996, Sheffield played in 161 games and had a career-best offensive season. He hit .314 with 42 taters, 120 RBI, and 118 runs scored. He led the N.L. with a whopping .465 on-base%, was second in slugging% (.624), and first in OPS+ (a career-high 189). Equally impressive, he drew 142 walks while striking out just 66 times.

Sheffield was rewarded with a six-year, $61 million contract extension, the most lucrative in baseball history at that time.

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The 1997 World Champions

Gary Sheffield had an off-year right after signing his new contract. Hamstring woes and problems with his surgically repaired thumb limited him to 135 games. His numbers dropped to a .250 batting average, 21 HR, and 71 RBI. His OPS+, while still a solid 134, was the lowest number he would post until 2006.

Sheffield’s production was especially poor early in the season; his batting average sat at just .221 on June 27th. He was still drawing his walks (his OBP was .431 at the time), but his early hitting slump irked Marlins Owner H. Wayne Huizenga.

Fortunately for Sheffield and Marlins fans, General Manager David Dombrowski had assembled a team filled with star players to go with first-year manager Jim Leyland (who is now a Hall of Famer). The Marlins went 92-70, which was good enough to earn the N.L. Wild Card berth.

Sheffield got hot in September and, more importantly, in October. In the Marlins’ 16 postseason games, he hit .350 with a 1.061 OPS. The Marlins, in their first postseason in just the 5th year of the franchise’s existence, won a thrilling 7-game World Series against the Cleveland Indians.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (1998-2001)

Shortly after watching his team become World Champions, Huizenga ordered a fire sale. Gary Sheffield survived the purge until the following spring but, ultimately, was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deal that temporarily brought catcher Mike Piazza to Florida (Piazza was traded again shortly thereafter to the New York Mets).

The Florida native, who had a no-trade clause in his contract, was not pleased at all about being traded and threatened to hold up the deal. Sheffield flew to Los Angeles to meet with the Dodgers brass. He demanded an extra $6 million, plus a $3 million home and an extra $1 million to take care of his California taxes. By the end of the night, the Dodgers agreed to Sheffield’s demands.

“I played my ass off for Los Angeles, and I really loved it there and had some of the best years of my career. I demanded to be paid what I was worth because I approached the game as a professional. I was as competitive when it came to negotiating my compensation as I was whenever I went up to bat… When I was playing, being a $100 million player meant something. Now you can make that much and still suck.”

— Gary Sheffield (Where I’m Coming From, Players Tribune, July 14, 2016)

Sheffield immediately mashed for the Dodgers (posting a 162 OPS+ in 90 games) before an ankle sprain cut his season short at the end of August.

Sheffield was just 29 years old at the end of the 1998 season but he had only managed to play 140 or more games 3 times in 11 MLB seasons. It was hard to shake the notion that he was a player who was always getting hurt.

That all changed after his 30th birthday. Sheffield moved to left field in 1999 and, from ’99 to 2001, he averaged 145 games played with the Dodgers. He hit .312 with a .420 OBP, .581 SLG, and 159 OPS+ in those three seasons. He also averaged 38 HR, 103 RBI, and 102 runs.

For three consecutive years, Sheff posted a slash line with at least a .300 BA, .400 OBP, and .500 SLG. Only six other times in Dodger Stadium history did a player achieve this: Reggie Smith, Pedro Guerrero (twice), Eddie Murray, and Piazza (twice).

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Sheffield’s tenure with the Dodgers was not absent of controversy. Feeling the team wasn’t going in the right direction (the Dodgers failed to make the postseason in each of his four seasons there), he lobbied for a trade and insulted his teammates.

Atlanta Braves (2002-2003)

Ultimately, Gary Sheffield got his wish. He was traded to the Atlanta Braves in January 2002. He was excited to join the star-studded Braves.

The season started poorly for Sheffield (he went through a 15-game slump in April and May in which he hit just .133) but he rebounded to produce a solid campaign. Sheff finished 2002 with 25 HR, 84 RBI, and a .307/.404/.512 slash line.

In 2003, Sheffield had a monster season, mashing 39 homers with 132 RBI, 126 runs, and a slash line of .330/.419/.604. That output gave him an OPS+ of 162, which was good enough to put him 3rd in the MVP voting (behind Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols).

Sheffield’s two good seasons in Atlanta were marred slightly by two poor postseason efforts; he went 3 for 30 (.100) in 9 games as the Braves lost the LDS in both seasons.

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New York Yankees (2004-2006)

As a free agent for the first time after the 2003 season, Gary Sheffield signed a three-year contract with the New York Yankees, promising him continued opportunities to chase another World Series ring.

Sheffield was the model of consistency in his first two years in the Bronx, playing 154 games in both 2004 and 2005. He averaged 35 HR with 122 RBI while posting a 139 OPS+.  In ’04, he finished 2nd in the A.L. MVP voting to Vladimir Guerrero.

In 2006, the injury bug returned. Torn ligaments and tendons in his wrist limited Sheffield to just 39 games.

In all three seasons, the Yankees made it to the postseason but failed to advance to the Fall Classic.

At the time of the Bronx Bombers’ 3-0 series lead in the 2004 ALCS, Sheffield was mashing in the playoffs. He was hitting .412 with a 1.242 OPS. As the Red Sox famously won the final four games of that ’04 LCS, Sheffield’s bat went silent. He was 1 for 17 in Games 4 through 7.

In the 2005 and ’06 postseasons (both ALDS losses for the Yankees), Sheff hit just .212 with a .447 OPS.

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Detroit Tigers (2007-2008)

In the 2006 ALDS, the Yankees lost to the Detroit Tigers, who would go on to lose the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals. In November 2006, Gary Sheffield was traded for the fifth time in his career, by the Yankees to the Tigers, which reunited him with Jim Leyland.

Now 38 years old, Sheff was still a productive bat but not the top-tier hitter he had been in the past. He hit .265 with 25 HR, 75 RBI, and a 119 OPS+ in ’07.

Also in 2007, Sheffield made headlines on the issue of race once again by accusing Yankees’ manager Joe Torre of treating white players differently than black players.

In 2008, Sheff had the worst season of his career since 1991. He hit just .225 with a below-average OPS+ of 90.

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New York Mets (2009)

Even though he was sitting at 499 career home runs, the Tigers released Sheffield just a few days before the 2009 season.

Six days later, he was signed by the New York Mets, which is where he would hit his 500th home run and, ultimately, end his 22-year career.

Despite all of the injuries and missed time throughout his career, Sheffield still managed to log 10,947 plate appearances in 22 seasons, which is the 40th most in baseball history.

Gary Sheffield’s Career By the Numbers

Gary Sheffield finished his career with Hall-of-Fame-caliber numbers. At the time of his retirement, Sheff’s 509 career home runs were the 24th most in MLB history. His 1,676 career RBI were the 25th most.

Thanks to 1,475 walks (21st most ever), his 4,299 career times on base were 29th best.

Here’s how Sheffield ranks today all-time in various statistical categories with a list of players ahead of him on these lists who are not in the Hall.

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Notes: oWAR is WAR for Offense only. WPA = Wins Probability Added (see Glossary)

If you look at the names that Sheffield trails in these offensive categories, you’ll notice that almost all are either not yet eligible (still active or retired less than 5 years) or have a scandal they’re linked to (PEDs for most, gambling for Pete Rose). Sheff, of course, is also PED-linked, as we’ll discuss shortly.

Only 87 players in MLB history have logged 10,000 or more plate appearances. Sheffield’s OPS+ of 140 is tied for the 23rd best, behind 19 Hall of Famers plus Bonds, Miguel Cabrera, and Pujols.

Comparison to Vladimir Guerrero

Offensively at least, Gary Sheffield’s numbers are Hall of Fame worthy. Compare him to Vladimir Guerrero, who was inducted into Cooperstown in 2018 on the strength of 93% of the BBWAA vote.

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Due to almost 1,900 more plate appearances, Sheffield surpassed 500 home runs while Guerrero did not, but one can hardly hold that against Sheff. Vladdy’s career was over after his age 36 season, while Sheff played until the age of 40.

Besides the PED link (which obviously is a big deal), the principal difference between Guerrero and Sheffield is the way they began their careers. Vladdy made an instant impact with the Montreal Expos. He was a “wow” player. Meanwhile, Sheffield got off to a very slow start in Milwaukee and developed an early reputation as a malcontent.

There’s also, in fairness, the fact that Guerrero had a cannon for an arm in right field while Sheffield deservedly established an early reputation that he was a below-average player defensively.

Explaining Sheffield’s Performance in the Hall of Fame Vote?

After looking at those numbers, the question of the day isn’t just why Gary Sheffield isn’t in the Hall of Fame yet but why he got such a tiny percentage of the vote in his first five years of eligibility. As previously noted, Sheffield received between 11.1% and 13.6% in his first five years on the ballot before surging up to 40.6% by 2021, 55.0% in 2023, and is tracking at just under 75% now.

There are several reasons for five years of low vote totals, the first one of them being a big and obvious one in neon lights.

1. Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report on Steroids due to his links to BALCO.
2. He was a controversial figure who carried the baggage of a bad reputation of his early years in Milwaukee throughout the rest of his career.
3. Because of terrible defensive metrics, Sheffield’s career WAR of 60.5 is below the average for Hall of Fame inducted right fielders.
4. 500 home runs aren’t as sexy as they used to be.
5. As previously noted, Sheff’s first five BBWAA ballots were stacked with so many good players that it was easy for writers to leave Sheffield’s name off. Voters are limited to 10 selections per year. As good as he was, it’s arguable that Sheffield wasn’t one of the top 10 candidates in any of his first five years on the ballot.

Let’s look at these five factors one by one.

1. Gary Sheffield’s BALCO Connection

The BBWAA never put Bonds or Roger Clemens into the Hall of Fame because of their links to PEDs in general and the Mitchell Report in particular. The Eras Committee followed suit in December 2022, rebuking the all-time greats while electing Fred McGriff to the Hall unanimously. If Bonds and Clemens can’t get into Cooperstown due to their PED links, how in the world could Gary Sheffield get in?

What differentiates Sheffield’s case from Bonds and Clemens, however, is that he’s seemingly been forthright about why he was named in that report. From an article written by Sports Illustrated‘s Tom Verducci:

“Sheffield is the only star I know who, as an active player, without provocation admitted to using steroids; he did so in a 2004 SI story I wrote. Why would he make an admission? Because, he told me, he had testified under oath that he had been duped into using them.”

— Tom Verducci, si.com (December 16, 2014)

Verducci went on to write that Sheffield was told that the substances he used were legal arthritic balms or nutritional supplements. Also, in 2002, when the players were resisting the idea of testing for steroids, Sheffield was a rare player in favor, saying, “I would like to see testing. I mean, you see how much guys are using it. Unless you’ve got something to hide, you won’t mind testing, right?”

So, according to Verducci, the only known use of PEDs by Sheffield was in the off-season before the 2002 campaign when (he claims) he used them unknowingly while he was living in Bonds’ house and working out with him. Interestingly, the 2002 season was arguably Sheffield’s worst as a hitter between 1999 and 2005.

(I’ll have more writer thoughts on this distinction towards the end of the piece)

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For the record, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s vote tracker, Verducci voted for Sheffield in 2016 but not in 2015 or 2017-23. Verducci is a PED hard-liner (he has never voted for Bonds or Clemens), so the fact that he once cast a ballot for Sheffield indicates that (at least for a time) he truly believed that Sheff was a fairly innocent PED user.

As for myself, as a non-voting commentator, when it comes to the career of a player linked to PEDs and potential Hall of Fame candidacy, I always ask myself whether the player’s career was authentic.

I believe Gary Sheffield’s career was authentic. The 1992 version of Sheffield with San Diego revealed the best that he could be when healthy and motivated. This guy was a great hitter with a keen eye and a lightning-fast bat. In my opinion, his career numbers reflect the quality of the hitter that he was.

Sheffield’s BALCO connection is almost certainly the #1 (but not only) reason that he’s far short of 75% with the BBWAA. In my opinion, it’s a factor to consider in the decision whether or not to vote for him, but it should not be disqualifying. (Incidentally, the words “career authenticity” might explain why Sheffield surged on the 2020, 2021, and 2022 ballots while Sammy Sosa just barely inched upwards).

2. The Outspoken and Controversial Gary Sheffield

Before he ever set foot on a Major League Baseball diamond, Gary Sheffield found himself in the news for the wrong reasons. In December 1986, when he was 18 years old, Sheffield was arrested in Tampa along with his uncle Dwight Gooden and three others in an incident involving three cars driving erratically (two of which were driven by Gooden and Sheffield).

In Milwaukee, Sheff had his well-documented run-ins with management and was even once blamed for the stress that caused General Manager Harry Dalton to have a heart attack.

In two other cities (Los Angeles and New York), Sheffield complained to the media about racism. I’m not qualified to judge the veracity (or lack thereof) of his claims, but the existence of those claims contributes to the narrative that he was a perennial malcontent. For a player of Sheffield’s talent to be traded five times in his career is unusual, although, in fairness, two of those trades involved salary dumps.

“I’ve never gotten along with the media because I say what I believe. So while they might have pretended not to like me, the truth is they loved me because if I got upset they’d get a juicy quote. Then I’d read that shit, get angry and give them another quote. If more guys spoke their minds, baseball would probably be an even more high-profile sport. The game needs personalities. It would have been easier if I just always said the same canned b.s., but that’s not me.”

— Gary Sheffield (Where I’m Coming From, Players Tribune, July 14, 2016)

There’s no way to know to what degree Sheffield’s surliness and willingness to air his bellyaches publicly have contributed to his lack of Hall of Fame votes. If there’s a softening to him, however, it may be that he’s been a respected analyst for the TBS studio team.

3. Terrible Defensive Metrics hurt Gary Sheffield’s Hall of Fame Case

According to the fielding component of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) found on Baseball Reference, Gary Sheffield is the second-worst defensive player in the history of baseball, second only to Derek Jeter.

Let me say first that you have to play a lot for the defensive metrics to call you the worst (or second-worst). Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe (of FanGraphs, previously Sports Illustrated) has opined that he’s “troubled by the extent to which those outlying defensive stats—largely estimates from the pre-batted-ball-type era—nuke his value.”

Jaffe has created a system (JAWS) that is designed to objectively weigh the relative value of Hall of Famers and candidates. What I like about Jaffe is that he created a system that is widely cited and respected in the sabermetric community, but he is not a slave to it.

The truth is this: Gary Sheffield was not a good defensive player. It’s also true that we really can’t know for sure to what extent his defensive deficiencies hurt his teams. I’m inclined to think that his career WAR (60.5) does not reflect his overall value as a player.

Using the batting component (Rbat) that goes into WAR (which relies on more of the statistics that we grew up with), Sheffield is the 29th best in the history of baseball. He’s ahead of 145 non-Negro League Hall of Famers, including legendary sluggers like Mike Schmidt, Willie McCovey, Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, Carl Yastrzemski, and Ken Griffey Jr.

Personally, I can’t hold Sheffield’s defensive stats against him in comparison to the excellence of his offensive prowess.

4. 500 Home Runs Aren’t as Sexy as They Used to Be

When I was growing up watching baseball in the 1970s, 500 home runs were a really big deal. In 1978 (when I was 10 years old), the 40-year-old McCovey hit his 500th tater while on his second tour of duty with the San Francisco Giants. McCovey was just the 12th player in the history of baseball to hit that milestone. He was the first to join the 500 home run club since Frank Robinson and Harmon Killebrew both did it in 1971.

If you were a rabid baseball fan in the 1970s, you could quickly name all 12 members of the 500 home run club and exactly how many taters each had slugged.

Ten years later, when Gary Sheffield made his MLB debut, there were still only 14 members of this prestigious fraternity, with Reggie Jackson and Mike Schmidt having joined the party. All 14 either were already or would soon become inductees into the Hall of Fame.

Today, in 2024, there are 28 members of the 500 home run club. The milestone has now been tainted (and diminished) by the PED use of Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, and, yes, Gary Sheffield.

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It over-simplifies Sheffield’s place in BBWAA voting purgatory to ascribe it solely to his appearance in the Mitchell Report. Fred McGriff, Sheff’s former teammate in San Diego, finished his career with 493 home runs, the milestone likely denied to him by the players’ strike in 1994 that cut short his most productive season.

The Crime Dog was widely respected and believed to be a clean player, and yet, he never got more than 39.8% of the vote in 10 years on the BBWAA ballot before being inducted last year, thanks to the Eras Committee.

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Clearly, Sheffield’s numbers are slightly better than McGriff’s, but not dramatically. They’re both hurt by the dilution of what 500 home runs (or 493) mean.

Fun fact: McGriff and Sheffield are the only two players in MLB history who hit 30 or more home runs for 5 different ball clubs.

5. The Stacked Hall of Fame Ballots and the Rule of 10

This last point ties into all of the previous four. Until the 2021 ballot, ever since 2013, the Hall of Fame ballot was stacked with a bevy of qualified candidates. Voters are limited to selecting just 10 names on the ballot and, especially for those who are more lenient to PED users, there were far more than 10 players who are better than multiple existing Hall of Famers at their various positions.

For a BBWAA voter who believed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were all-time greats who would have been Hall of Famers if they had never used PEDs, they had only eight other players that they could vote for every year. In a PED-free universe, both Bonds and Clemens would have been first-ballot inductees in 2013. But that’s not the real world, and they both remained on the ballot for ten years, taking slots every year on the 10-player ballot from Sheffield and others.

What if you’re a “performance-only” voter who ignores a player’s links to PEDs and just goes by the numbers on the back of the baseball card? Sheffield’s problem is that he’s either just the second or third-best outfield option on the current ballot.

What’s the point here? The point is that a lot of voters have to start by thinking about each player as a “yes or no” vote for the Hall of Fame. Then, if completing that exercise, the voter has 12 to 15 “yes” votes, then the next step in the process is to whittle the list down to 10 names.

So, when it comes to Gary Sheffield, there are 4 ready-made reasons (excuses) to cross his name off those lists: BALCO link, malcontent, terrible defense, and 500 home runs are no big deal.

Why David Ortiz and not Gary Sheffield?

Finally, let me point this out. Ortiz was a first-ballot selection by the BBWAA two years ago, despite the fact that Ortiz has a PED link of his own (he was named as a player who tested positive in MLB’s “survey testing” in 2003).

There are two big distinctions regarding Ortiz (compared to other PED-linked players). The first is that Commissioner Rob Manfred has publicly stated that there were some “false positives” in the 2003 testing that were never followed up on. The second is that the bulk of Ortiz’s career occurred during the years that baseball had a drug-testing regimen. Ortiz had to pass tests from 2004 to 2016, which were the years in which he compiled virtually all of his Cooperstown credentials.

Anyway, just by the numbers, take a look at Big Papi’s numbers compared to Sheff’s:

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Ortiz hit more home runs and drove in more runs, but Sheffield’s “value” (measured by WAR and oWAR) is higher because Sheffield played the outfield while Big Papi was almost exclusively a designated hitter.

If you’re wondering why the gap is so much longer with oWAR (offensive WAR) than with WAR (which includes defense and base running), it’s because oWAR gives a player credit for merely occupying a defensive position. On the other hand, the full version of WAR dings Sheffield significantly for not playing well in the field. As previously noted, Sheffield’s defensive metrics are the 2nd worst in baseball history.

The number one thing that makes Ortiz a germane comparison is that they both have ties to PEDs but have mitigating factors. With Ortiz, it was the Manfred comment. With Sheffield, as we’ve seen, it was that he admitted what he called an accidental use and was an advocate for the drug testing program that the MLB Players Association ultimately agreed to.

Also, of course, Ortiz gets beaucoup bonus points for being the greatest clutch postseason hitter in baseball history. Still, I have a hard time seeing how Ortiz belongs in the Hall while Sheffield doesn’t.

The BBWAA Speaks

Before wrapping up, Let’s take a look at some of the thoughts of the writers who actually have a vote. First, let’s go with some “aye” votes:

“This is the first time I’m voting for Sheffield… Why did it take so long to come around? I’ll blame the other steroid-tainted players for clogging up the works for so many years. Now that Bonds and Clemens are finally off, I’ve got votes to play with.”

— Steve Politi, nj.com (Dec. 9, 2022)

“This is one for the trolls. I’m going to start with anecdotal evidence, always my favorite over maneuverable measurementsWithout a doubt, Sheffield was the most feared hitter of his time in his prime because of his bat speed… A joke he is not in the Hall of Fame and that he only got 40.6 percent of the vote last year. One more thing, his body never changed.

— Kevin Kernan, Ballnine (Dec. 29, 2022)

“Gary Sheffield admitted early on that he used a banned steroid cream and was tangentially connected to the BALCO PED scandal through his friendship with Bonds, but he gets a pass from me because he insisted that he didn’t know it was a steroid at the time and was an early proponent of mandatory steroid testing… You see, the latitude allowed in the BBWAA voting process pretty much let me create my own standard for judging Sheffield’s career.”

— Peter Schumck, Baltimore Baseball (Jan. 5, 2023)

“This one is always brutal. He was a terrible defender and was connected to PEDs… When I voted for David Ortiz last year, a guy who never played defense, I felt like I couldn’t remove Sheffield from my list. Because he was a hitter teams game-planned against for the better part of two decades. He defies many of my criteria, but Sheffield just feels like a Hall of Famer to me.”

— Dan Connolly, The Athletic (Jan. 6, 2023)

It’s often harder to find writer columns explaining specifically why they don’t vote for a player, so he’s a small sample of a couple who remain in the hard-line camp about PED users in general:

“I remain opposed to voting for candidates whose careers don’t pass the smell test when it comes to their use of performance-enhancing drugs. I’m not saying I’ll never vote for them, just not now. Not yet. It still seems like a bridge too far for me, philosophically.”

— David Haugh, 570 The Score (Dec. 15, 2022)

“Seeing the Veterans Committee pass on the likes of Bonds, Clemens & Co. was somewhat validating for those of us who’ve tried to honor the Hall’s request and keep cheaters out of Cooperstown. Had the committee said yes to those guys, I would have become a “strictly numbers” voter… In this spirit, I was all set to vote for Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltrán, Gary Sheffield, and Alex Rodriguez — players on this year’s ballot who have Hall of Fame numbers. But since the Hall of Fame players on the Vets Committee have indicated they don’t want these guys in, I will stay on the wall and steer clear.”

— Dan Shaughnessy, The Boston Globe (Jan. 10, 2023)

Conclusion

I don’t have a vote, but I believe that Gary Sheffield had a career worthy of the Hall of Fame. I tend to be more forgiving toward those who used Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), especially those whose careers mostly occurred during the “Wild Wild West” when MLB mostly turned a blind eye to the problem, and the players’ union resisted the implementation of a drug-testing regimen.

By the numbers, Sheffield is a no-brainer. Additionally, to echo Kernan’s point, Sheffield’s body never changed. His career statistics are, to this observer’s eye, an authentic representation of his hitting skill.

Clearly, many members of the BBWAA feel that way as well, which explains the jump from 13.6% in 2019 to 55.0% in 2023 and a net gain of 12 more votes in 2024 (as reported in Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame vote tracker).

The major stumbling block for Sheffield remains his BALCO connection. Although he has done much better in recent votes, the vast majority of his “flips” came from voters who had previously voted for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Given that Sheffield’s gains in recent years came almost exclusively among voters who are more forgiving of PED-linked players, it seems likely that Sheffield has the same vote ceiling that Bonds and Clemens have.

Anyway, Bonds and Clemens are off the ballot now and were rejected by the 16 members of the December 2022 Contemporary Baseball Eras Committee. On a vote that saw Fred McGriff get a unanimous nod for the Hall of Fame, Bonds and Clemens got “less than four votes,” which means they got anywhere from zero to three votes in the affirmative.

Even though he’s currently tracking at 73.7%, Sheffield has no path to 75% via the BBWAA. The voters who remain anonymous will depress his final total to something in the 60 percent range.

Also, given what happened in December 2022, it seems unlikely that the Eras Committee will be more forgiving. However, unlike the BBWAA, whose members are mostly the same from year to year, the composition of the 16-member Eras Committee varies significantly each time a given era of players is considered for Cooperstown. If I were Sheffield, I wouldn’t count on making the Hall of Fame anytime soon, but it’s not an impossibility.

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