The 2019 World Series: Chock Full of Future Hall of Fame Pitchers

The 2019 World Series, featuring the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros, is the culminating series in a postseason in which, so far, the role of the starting pitcher has clawed its way back to relevance. This Series in particular will feature some of the game’s best starters, with at least two, probably three and possibly four of or five of them destined for a spot in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

Houston’s Justin Verlander is a virtual lock for Cooperstown. His teammate Zack Greinke looks solid while Gerrit Cole has had two superb campaigns in a row that put him on the radar. For Washington, representing a city celebrating its first Fall Classic appearance since the Great Depression (1933), we have 3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer and former “can’t miss” phenom Stephen Strasburg, who has re-emerged as a legitimate ace.

This piece was originally published Tuesday morning. It has been updated to include the Game 1 World Series result.

(cover photos: Associated Press)

Five Potential Hall of Famers Among the Fall Classic’s Starters

If fate were to grant future Hall of Fame plaques for all five of these superb starters, it would represent the first time in baseball history that each World Series participant had at least two Hall of Fame starting pitchers and that the two teams combined for five. The fact that this hasn’t ever happened indicates how special this Fall Classic could wind up being in the annals of baseball history.

Suppose that the baseball gods smile upon “only” four of these starting pitchers, with Cole eventually falling shy of Cooperstown standards. That would produce what is still a rare event, a World Series in which each team had two Hall of Famers who started at least one game in the Fall Classic. It’s only happened four times in the history of the World Series with all four occurrences between 1905 and 1926. Of course, at the time, the fans following those Fall Classics weren’t talking about how many future Hall of Famers they were watching, since the Hall wasn’t created until 1936.

World Series contests featuring three starting pitchers who eventually make the Hall the are a bit more common. The Atlanta Braves of 1995, ’96 and ’99, of course, had Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz anchoring their rotations. The last two Fall Classics to showcase at least three future starters spread out among both teams were in 1991 and 1992. The 1991 World Series was highlighted by the Minnesota Twins’ veteran ace Jack Morris and Atlanta’s young guns, Smoltz and Glavine, with Morris and Smoltz tangling in the classic Game 7. One year later, Morris was with the Toronto Blue Jays, who defeated Smoltz, Glavine and the Braves in 6 games.

With the history lesson dispatched with, in the balance of this piece I’ll take a closer a look at the potential Hall of Fame starters we’ll be witnessing in the next week or so while also commenting on whether there are any position players on either team that look like they might have a Cooperstown plaque in their future.

Washington Nationals’ Potential Hall of Fame Candidates 

Besides Scherzer and Strasburg, are there any other potential Hall of Famers on the Washington Nationals?

Juan Soto, who turns 21 years of age on Friday, sure looks like a future Hall of Famer but it is way, way too early to be serious about it. The young left-handed swinging left fielder has had two spectacular regular season campaigns to start his career but he can’t even buy a beer legally yet.

Soto, of course, has also been the hitting star for the Nationals this postseason. He delivered the game-tying single in the 8th inning of the Wild Card Game (a two-run single off the Milwaukee’s Josh Hader which also scored the go-ahead run thanks to an error by the Brewers’ right fielder). Next, in the 8th inning of Game 5 of the NLDS, Soto swatted a massive 449 foot home run to right center field off the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw to tie the score at 3, leading to an eventual extra innings victory.

Finally, he got to the recently untouchable Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the World Series. Last night, in the top of the 4th inning, Soto hit a high fastball onto the train tracks at Minute Maid Park in deep left center field. That titanic tater tied the game at 2. In the next frame, Soto doubled to left center field to drive in two more runs to give the Nationals a 5-2 lead, leading to an eventual 5-4 win. That’s four game-altering hits off three of the top pitchers in all of baseball.

Among the position players, third baseman Anthony Rendon is currently the best bet to be in Cooperstown but the odds are against him. Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) by age as a measuring stick, Rendon’s career 27.3 WAR is just the 20th best for third basemen through their age 29 seasons who debuted in the last 50 years. That puts him behind five Hall of Famers, four players who are still active and eleven others who are not in the Hall.  Among those not in the Hall is Adrian Beltre, who is a lock for Cooperstown but not eligible yet.

A 27.3 WAR in your 20’s is not bad but it means that he’ll probably need to be, on balance, better in his 30’s than he was in his 20’s. That’s a heavy lift. Rendon has a shot but it’s a long shot, unlike the headline acts who will be on the mound.

Washington’s 3rd Starter Patrick Corbin

Before we get to our fabulous five starters on the Nationals and Astros, there is a sixth starting pitcher (Patrick Corbin of the Nationals) who has had two consecutive quality campaigns, giving him at least a small chance at the Hall. Corbin is coming off the best season of his career: he went 14-7, 3.25 ERA, with a 5.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Corbin has already passed his 30th birthday and his overall record (70-61, 3.80 ERA, 16.8 WAR) does not bespeak a future plaque in Cooperstown. He does have five seasons left on the six-year, $140 million contract he signed with Washington last December so he’ll certainly be given the opportunity to prove that 2019 is his “new normal.”

Max Scherzer (SP: Age 35) (12 years in MLB)

• Career: 170-89 (.656 WL%), 3.20 ERA
• Career: 58.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 132 ERA+
• 7-time All-Star
• Pitched 2 no-hitters in 2015
• 10th pitcher all-time to win 3 Cy Young Awards
• Career postseason: 7-5, 3.36 ERA, 134 SO in 107 IP

Scherzer, appearing in the World Series for the first time since he was with the Tigers in 2012 (as Justin Verlander’s teammate), was Washington’s starter in Game 1 last night. The hard-throwing right-hander struggled a bit with his command and had to pitch out of trouble all night long.

After giving up a 2-run double to Yuli Gurriel in the bottom of the 1st inning, Scherzer gutted out 4.1 innings of scoreless ball, stranding six runners on base in the process.

Scherzer’s $210 million contract with the Nationals represents one of the greatest eight-figure values in the history of Major League Baseball. He has a ridiculous 156 ERA+ in his five seasons with Washington and won two of his three Cy Youngs in the nation’s capitol. He’s pitched two no-hitters and authored a game with 20 strikeouts.

Where “Blue Eye” sometimes came up short in his first few seasons with Washington was in October but that changed this year. In his last three starts he’s pitched 19 innings and given up just 3 runs.

For a closer look at why Scherzer is a virtual certainty to make the Hall of Fame, please click here.

Stephen Strasburg (SP: Age 31) (10 years in MLB)

• Career: 112-58 (.659 WL%), 3.17 ERA
• Career: 32.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 130 ERA+
• 3-time All-Star
• Career postseason: 4-2, 1.10 ERA, 57 SO, 5 BB, 41 IP

Stephen Strasburg, inning by inning the best pitcher for the Nationals this October, will take the ball in Game 2 on tonight, matched up against Justin Verlander.

Strasburg, the #1 overall pick in the 2009 MLB player draft, was supposed to be the second coming of Walter “Big Train” Johnson, the Hall of Famer who won 417 games for the Washington Senators from 1907-27. Less than three months after his stellar MLB debut in June 2010, Strasburg was felled by a torn ulnar collateral ligament, the injury that means “Tommy John” surgery is coming.

In the years since, the 6’5″ right-hander has had his ups and downs but, in the last three seasons, has emerged as one of the top starters in baseball. Strasburg finished 3rd in the 2017 Cy Young voting and is a candidate to win the award for his 2019 season, in which he went 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA in a league-leading 209 innings pitched.

Strasburg has been a stud in October baseball. To help the Nats escape the “win or go home” Wild Card Game, he bailed out Scherzer when the Nats were trailing 3-1 after 5 innings; Strasburg tossed 3 innings of scoreless ball in relief of Mad Max. Stras followed that performance up with only 4 runs allowed in his three starts in the NLDS and NLCS, all wins for Washington.

Overall, he has posted a 1.64 ERA in four October outings this postseason.

You can read much more about Strasburg’s Hall of Fame chances in this piece I authored recently.

Houston Astros’ Potential Hall of Fame Candidates 

The Houston Astros are back in the World Series for the second time in three years. When you look at the players on Houston’s roster, you can understand why we’re watching a team that may be looked back upon as a dynasty of this era. The Astros started the series as heavy favorites, opening with odds of -235, according to ESPN. That means you would have had to wager $23.50 to win 10 bucks. That makes the ‘Stros the biggest Vegas favorites since the 2007 Boston Red Sox were matched up against the upstart Colorado Rockies, the N.L.’s Wild Card entrant that year.

Before we get to the troika of potential Hall of Fame starters, let’s briefly contemplate the excellence among the position players.

First of all, let’s recall the Juan Soto disclaimer before briefly discussing Yordan Alvarez. The 22-year old designated hitter from Cuba had a historic rookie campaign, hitting 27 HR with 78 RBI while posting an incredible slash line of a .313 BA/.412 OBP/.655 SLG.

For MLB rookies who are 22 years of age or younger and logged at least 300 plate appearances, Alvarez’ 1.067 OPS is the best in MLB history. When adjusted for the hitting-friendly season this was in general, his 173 OPS+ is the best since 1884 among all rookies at 22 or under. So, it’s way, way, way too early to contemplate the Hall of Fame for the 6’5″ slugger but what a debut.

The best bet for the Hall of Fame among Houston’s position players is second baseman Jose Altuve, who sent the Astros to the World Series with his 9th inning walk-off home run off the New York Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman in Game 6 of the ALCS. At the age of 29, Altuve has a career .315 batting average to go with a 127 OPS+, an excellent number for a middle infielder. I discussed Altuve’s Cooperstown chances in more detail in this piece posted shortly after the end of the game on Saturday.

Bregman, Correa and Springer

It’s very early but third baseman Alex Bregman (a potential MVP this year) has gotten off to a four-year start that is putting him on an early Hall of Fame track. The good news is that his 20.8 career WAR is the 4th best in baseball history for third basemen who completed their fourth campaign by their age 25 season. The bad news is that the player atop the list is Evan Longoria, whose career has tailed off after an incredible start. The others in front are Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews and Dick Allen, who came one vote short of the Hall via the Golden Era Veterans Committee in December 2014.

Next to Bregman on the diamond is shortstop Carlos Correa, the #1 overall pick of the 2012 draft. Correa got off to a fantastic start in the first 3 seasons of his career but has been slowed by injuries in the last two campaigns. Still, his 21.0 WAR through his age 24 season is the 9th best in MLB history among shortstops. Correa just turned 25 last month. He can’t be discounted as a future Cooperstown candidate given his age and talent.

The long-shot among the Astros is center fielder George Springer, who didn’t start his career until he was 24. Springer, who turned 30 last month, had the best year of his career in 2019 (.292 BA, 39 HR, 96 RBI, 150 OPS+, 6.2 WAR). His career WAR is only 24.6 so he would have to replicate his ’19 performance for at least four more seasons to have a shot at the Hall. His postseason record (including 5 HR and the MVP in the 2017 World Series) will be a significant bonus if he becomes a borderline case.

Justin Verlander (SP: Age 36) (15 years in MLB)

• Career: 225-129 (.636 WL%), 3.33 ERA, 3,006 SO
• Career: 71.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 129 ERA+
• 8-time All-Star
• 2011 A.L. Cy Young and MVP winner (24-5, 2.40 ERA, 8.6 WAR)
• Has pitched 3 career no-hitters
• Career postseason: 14-9, 3.26 ERA, 196 SO in 176.2 IP

It’s been quite a year for Justin Verlander. At the age of 36, Verlander tossed his 3rd career no-hitter, won 21 games (against 6 losses) with a 2.58 ERA and 300 strikeouts. The 300th K came in his final start of the season (in Anaheim) and occurred a couple of innings after he logged the 3,000 strikeout of his 15-year career. Verlander led all of Major League Baseball in Wins, Games Started, Innings Pitched (223) and WHIP (0.803).

Verlander will take the hill on tonight against Stephen Strasburg in Game 2 of the World Series in what is now a crucial contest for the Astros, given the unexpected loss in Game 1.

Although JV’s overall postseason record is very good, his performance in the Fall Classic has been lacking. In five career World Series starts, Verlander is 0-4 with a 5.67 ERA. Those weak numbers are influenced strongly by three weak efforts in 2006 and 2012 as a member of the Detroit Tigers. In 2017, with Houston, Verlander gave up 5 earned runs in 12 innings of work.

Considering that he has now thrown 247.1 innings overall in 2019, it would be understandable if JV was wearing down. In his last three starts this October, he’s gone 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA.

Regarding his Hall of Fame credentials, Verlander would be a first ballot Hall of Famer if he retired today. His career body of work statistically is already above the bar for a Hall of Fame starter and that doesn’t count the three no-hitters (only Nolan Ryan has pitched more), the MVP or postseason success. For more on what makes Justin Verlander a Hall of Fame lock, please click here.

Zack Greinke (SP: Age 36) (16 years in MLB)

• Career: 205-123 (.625 WL%), 3.35 ERA, 3,622 SO
• Career: 66.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 125 ERA+
• 6-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2009 Cy Young Award winner (16-8, 2.16 ERA, 10.4 WAR)
• Career postseason: 3-6, 4.44 ERA

Zack Greinke, who turned 36 years of age on Monday, has never been known for his loquaciousness. Mostly shy, Greinke prefers to fly under the radar. What he has been known for is being mostly excellent, occasionally brilliant, mostly below average in October, and very, very rich. He’ll start Game 3 of the World Series in Washington on Friday night.

Greinke is currently pitching for his sixth different MLB franchise. He started his career with the Kansas City Royals, for whom he won a Cy Young Award in 2009 (going 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA). After the 2010 season, with free agency two years away, the Royals traded their ace to the Milwaukee Brewers in a package that brought back Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jake Odorizzi.

In case you’ve forgotten Odorizzi’s relevance here, he was dealt two years later with Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. Many of the building blocks of the Royals’ two World Series berths (2014 and 2015) can be traced to the Greinke trade to Milwaukee.

Anyway, Greinke spent one and a half seasons in Milwaukee, pitching (poorly) in the postseason in 2011 before being traded to the Los Angeles Angels in July 2012. In the offseason, Greinke signed a 6-year, $147 million contract with the other team in Los Angeles, the Dodgers.

As the second banana to Clayton Kershaw, the lanky right-hander thrived, going 51-15 (.773) with a 2.30 ERA. In the 2015 season, he finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting (to Jake Arrieta) by posting a brilliant 19-3 record and ML-best 1.66 ERA (translating to a 222 ERA+ and 9.1 WAR).

Following that career best (or second best) season, Greinke opted out of his contract and signed a bigger 6-year, $206.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. After a shaky first season in the desert, Greinke pitched very well. Overall, he went 55-29 with a 3.40 ERA with the Snakes. With Arizona seemingly out of contention at the end of July, Greinke was traded for the third time in his career, this time to Houston.

The classic “under the radar” starter immediately settled in as Houston’s 3rd starter; in 10 starts in August and September, he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA. In the postseason, Greinke has been uneven to poor, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA. In the World Series, he’ll have a chance to flip that script in Game 3 and (if necessary) a potential Game 7.

Greinke’s Hall of Fame Chances

Regarding the Hall of Fame, I would consider it to be extremely likely that Zack Greinke will eventually make it. He has two more years left on his contract. Assuming he stays in Houston, he should pass 225 wins, approach 3,000 strikeouts and surpass a 70.0 WAR. As a matter of fact, if you believe in counting offensive contributions by pitchers, Greinke already has a 71.7 WAR (66.7 for pitching and 5.0 for hitting). Greinke has hit only .225 in his MLB career (with a .600 OPS) but that’s good by pitcher standards.

Anyway, take a look at how Zack’s numbers compare to Verlander’s.

WP Table Builder

As you can see, Verlander is a tick ahead but only a tick. His greater advantage is that he has a superior postseason record and the added value of 3,000 strikeouts and three career no-nos. Still, given that he’s still pitching well and is “only” 36, Greinke will probably make his eventual Hall of Fame selection an inevitability, even if not as a first-ballot inductee that most analysts assume Verlander will be.

Oh, by the way, did I mention that Greinke is rich? For whatever it’s (not) worth, he’s out-earned JV by over 20 million dollars ($247,003,000 to $226,515,000). He’s also owed $70 million in the last two years of his contract compared to Verlander’s $66 million owed for the final two seasons on his deal.

Gerrit Cole (SP: Age 29) (7 years in MLB)

• Career: 94-52 (.644), 3.22 ERA
• Career: 23.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 127 ERA+
• 3-time All-Star
• 326 strikeouts in 2019 (7th pitcher in MLB history with 325+ SO)
• Career postseason: 5-4, 2.76 ERA, 69 SO in 58.2 IP

Of the five potential Hall of Fame starting pitchers participating in the 2019 World Series, Gerrit Cole is the biggest long shot for Cooperstown. Cole, who will vie for the A.L. Cy Young Award with his teammate Justin Verlander, had the honor of starting Game 1 of the Fall Classic. As we’ve seen (in discussing Juan Soto), Cole had his worst outing in months, giving up 5 runs in 7 innings in the Astros 5-4 loss.

After profiling four starting pitchers who have made $739,232,000 combined, Cole is the pauper of the quintet, having earned a mere $25,584,500 according to Baseball Reference (with his 2013 salary not reported).

Before the 2019 season, one would not have included Cole in a mention of serious Cooperstown contenders on the Astros. Cole had an excellent 2018 campaign (15-5, 2.88 ERA, 5.2 WAR) but the body of work in his career was lacking. Cole’s 2019 campaign changes all of that.

Cole’s Magnificent 2019 Season

Gerrit Cole went 20-5 with a league-leading 2.50 ERA in the recently completed regular season. He also struck out a whopping 326 batters, the most in Major League Baseball since Randy Johnson’s 334 whiffs in 2002.

Considering that Cole had a 4-5 record and 4.11 ERA after a May 22nd start against the White Sox, where he finished is even more impressive. In his final 22 starts, Cole went 15-0 with a 1.78 ERA, striking out 226 batters against 31 walks in 146.2 IP.

That incredible run continued into the postseason. In his first 3 October starts, Cole went 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA. Cole held the batters of the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees to a .132 batting average in 22.2 innings, giving up 10 hits against 8 walks and 32 K’s.

Overall (with regular season and postseason numbers added up through the end of the American League Championship Series), Cole was…

• 18-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 25 starts dating back to May 27th.
• 14-0 with a 1.28 ERA in 16 starts dating back to July 17th.
• 8-0 with a 0.83 ERA in 9 starts in September and October.

That brilliant run of brilliance ended last night. Still, that makes him merely 18-1 with a 1.79 in his last 26 outings. As it always is with pitchers in October, it is possible that Cole is running on fumes. His combined 242 regular and postseason innings pitched (with a nifty 364 strikeouts) is by far a career high.

Anyway, the run of excellence that Cole was on recently is reminiscent of Orel Hershiser’s brilliant September/October run in 1988 when the Los Angeles Dodgers were the unlikely World Series champions.

Cole’s Hall of Fame Chances

What does Cole’s incredible stretch of dominant pitching mean for his Hall of Fame chances? Well, Hershiser was only one year older than Cole is now when he had his brilliant two months. The righty dubbed “Bulldog” by Tommy Lasorda had one more big year and then was essentially an average pitcher after that. As a result, Orel has never gotten close to the Hall of Fame.

Hershiser is just one example. Using WAR once again as a measuring stick, Cole’s career 94 wins and 23.4 Wins Above Replacement through his age 28 season is not awe-inspiring but his 2018-19 record is. It’s easy to forget that Cole was the #1 draft pick in all of MLB (by the Pittsburgh Pirates) in 2011, two years after the Nationals selected Strasburg with the top pick and a year after the Nats tabbed Bryce Harper #1.

Incidentally, with Cole, Strasburg and Correa highlighting the rosters, this is the first World Series ever to feature three different players who were the #1 overall draft pick.

In Cole’s third season with the Bucs in the majors (2015), he was a Cy Young contender, going 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA. Cole’s timing was poor for award season. Arrieta (1.77 ERA), Greinke (1.66) and Kershaw (2.13) all had microscopic Earned Run Averages; Cole finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.

After that brilliant 2015 season, Cole regressed in 2016-17, going 19-22 with a middling 4.12 ERA. Shortly after the Astros traded to get Cole from the Pirates in January 2018, the team sat down with their new acquisition and, using heat maps and video, showed how they could transform him into a dominant strikeout pitcher. In a piece by Travis Sawchik on 538.com, Cole explained that he also learned from Verlander how to increase his spin rate.

The results have been dramatic. In the last two seasons, nobody in all of baseball has more than Cole’s 602 strikeouts. His 163 ERA+ in 2018-’19 is third best in all of MLB, behind only Jacob deGrom and Verlander.

Cole is a free agent at the end of the season. How his eventual Hall of Fame case is built may ultimately be decided on where he chooses to hang his hat. He was a Yankees fan as a kid, has had his greatest success in Houston and grew up in Newport Beach, California, which puts the Angels and Dodgers in play. It seems to me that the Astros, as the team that unlocked the key to his greatest success, would be his best bet but the almighty dollar will likely decide the 6’4″ right-hander’s ultimate destination.

As a potential Hall of Famer, Cole has some catching up to do but he’s young enough to build a case in the upcoming years.

Remember as you watch the 2019 World Series that you may never again see a collection of five more accomplished starting pitchers.

Postscript: National Treasures and Texas-Sized Fortunes

By the way, a propos of nothing of earth-shattering importance, this World Series is also setting a record for the amount of salary earned by the six men who are slated to start the first three games of the series, plus possible Washington Game 3 or 4 starter Anibal Sanchez. 

If you add up the total salaries earned in Major League Baseball by Verlander, Greinke, Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin and Sanchez, these super seven have been paid a total of $894,765,392 and are owed an additional $466,369,334. Yes, sports fans, that’s $1,361 billion in current, past and future salaries for the likely starters in the 2019 World Series.

By the way, this does not account for the fact that Strasburg can opt out of his contract after the season and Cole will be a free agent for the first time. Very nice work if you can get it.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.