Zack Greinke’s Hall of Fame Odds after Game 7 Disappointment

Houston Astros starting pitcher Zack Greinke has never been known for his loquaciousness. Mostly shy, Greinke prefers to fly under the radar. However, when you’re tabbed to start Game 7 of the World Series, it’s hard to blend into the background. Asked about the high profile start, Greinke was characteristically dry: “A little excited about it. But we’ll see. Wish it was a National League park.”

Zack Greinke’s Game 7 Start

Although he received a no-decision in the Houston’s 6-2 loss to the Washington Nationals, Greinke delivered a Hall of Fame caliber start in Game 7. For the first six innings, he was brilliant, baffling the Nats’ hitters with a wide assortment of pitches with velocities from the high 60’s to low 90’s. In those six frames, Greinke gave up just no runs on one hit while issuing just one walk. He had the Nats’ hitters so fooled that 6 of the first 15 outs involved Greinke fielding his position. The 5-time Gold Glover had five assists, including the start of a double play.

In the top of the 7th inning, after getting a ground out to start the inning, the 6’2″ right-hander hung a change-up which Anthony Rendon promptly deposited into the left field stands for a solo home run. Greinke, after Rendon’s tater, was still the winning pitcher of record, clinging to a 2-1 lead.

The next batter was 21-year old Juan Soto, who had already delivered game or series altering hits against four of the best pitchers in the game during this postseason. Greinke pitched carefully to Soto, mostly staying outside the left-handed hitting slugger’s zone. A 2-1 off-speed pitch seemed to hit the bottom of the zone but was called a ball by home plate umpire Jim Wolf, a rare miss in what was mostly a well called game.

Greinke walked Soto on the next pitch (his 80th of the game), prompting Astros’ manager AJ Hinch to replace the 205-game winner with reliever Will Harris. It was a controversial decision, one I personally disagreed with, as did others.

With Greinke out and Harris in, Washington’s Howie Kendrick promptly hit an opposite field home run off the foul pole screen in right field to give the Nationals a 3-2 lead and spoil Greinke’s chance for the ultimate signature postseason victory. Hinch’s decision to lift his potential Hall of Fame starter after just 80 pitches will be controversial forever.

Was Greinke pulled too soon?

My feeling was this. At his best, Zack Greinke is one of the 10 to 15 best pitchers in baseball. At his best, he’s better than any member of the Astros bullpen. He’s not better than Gerrit Cole at his best (Cole will finish 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting next month) but Cole had just pitched on Sunday. So whether Cole would be pitching at 100% of his normal effectiveness was an unknown.

There are two reasons that today’s baseball analytics tell managers to be careful about letting a starting pitcher go through the batting order for a third time. The first reason is because, typically, the starter is tired at this point because of a pitch count approaching 100. At 80 pitches, there’s no evidence that Greinke was laboring. The second reason is that, typically, this decision occurs when the pitcher is facing the heart of the opponent’s lineup. Well, Greinke had already faced the Nationals’ best two hitters (Rendon and Soto). The next batter was Kendrick, who had a career .238 BA (.606 OPS) against the Astros’ starter.

If Cole wasn’t the right choice because there was a runner on base, why was Harris the right choice? Greinke had just given up a home run to Rendon. Harris gave up a home run to Rendon the day before.

“You have to dribble with your head up. As a manager, you have to read body language… Greinke makes $35m. Will Harris, who’s tired, makes $4m… Do not overthink it.”

— Alex Rodriguez (October 30, on the FS1 postgame show)

Greinke, in his typical understated fashion, didn’t offer much in the way of his own analysis.

“I was pitching good… They got a good lineup, especially the top of the order. It’s tough to get through no matter one time, two times, three times. All of them are tough. Really good hitters up there.”

— Zack Greinke (October 30th, USA Today)

Before Harris came into the game, Cole had started warming up. Hinch’s plan for Cole (who has never pitched out of the bullpen or on two days of rest) was only to bring him in at the start of an inning. Regardless, the way Greinke was dealing, at least one man in the opposing dugout was hoping for ABZ (Anyone but Zack).

“When we saw Cole warming up, we were almost like, ‘Please bring him in.’ Because that’s how good Zack Greinke was.”

— Kevin Long (Nationals hitting coach, October 30th, USA Today)

Anyway, it was not to be. Greinke was out of the game, the Nationals were in the lead in the blink of an eye and went on to win the franchise’s first ever World Championship, dating back to its inception in Montreal in 1969.

Greinke had struggled in his three previous postseason outings this month but, last night, he showed the national TV audience the form that makes him a likely future inductee into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

After a brief recap of Greinke’s 16-year career, I’ll explain why he has the record that merits a plaque in Cooperstown.

Cooperstown Cred: Zack Greinke (SP)

• Kansas City Royals (2004-10), Milwaukee Brewers (2011-12), Los Angeles Angels (2012), Los Angeles Dodgers (2013-15), Arizona Diamondbacks (2016-19), Houston Astros (2019)
• Career: 205-123 (.625 WL%), 3.35 ERA, 2,622 SO
• Career: 66.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 125 ERA+
• 6-time All-Star, 5-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2009 Cy Young Award winner (16-8, 2.16 ERA, 10.4 WAR)

(cover photo: Houston Chronicle/Karen Warren)

Zack Greinke’s Early Career Highlights

Greinke was a first round draft pick (#6 overall) by the Kansas City Royals in 2002. Two years later, he began his career in obscurity in KC in 2004 at a time that the Royals were perpetually bad. He was only 20 years old when he made his MLB debut and finished 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting by going 8-11 with a 3.97 ERA.

In 2005, with super high expectations, Greinke was truly terrible: he went 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA. It wasn’t known at the time but Greinke was battling severe depression and thought about quitting the game that no longer gave him joy.

The prized prospect spent much of the 2006 season in the minor leagues while seeking psychological help. He returned to the big league team in 2007 with his illness cured. After spending most of ’07 in the bullpen, Greinke returned to the rotation in 2008 and had a solid 13-10 record with a 3.47 ERA. The next year, Greinke was arguably the best pitcher in baseball and won the A.L. Cy Young Award (16-8, 2.16 ERA, 10.4 WAR).

As would be the pattern throughout his career, Greinke followed up his superb campaign with a lackluster one; he went 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA with the Royals in 2010. With free agency looming in a couple of years, he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in a package that brought back Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jake Odorizzi.

In case you’ve forgotten Odorizzi’s relevance here, he was dealt two years later with Wil Myers to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis. Many of the building blocks of the Royals’ two World Series berths (2014 and 2015) can be traced to the Greinke trade to Milwaukee.

In 2011, pitching for a contending team for the first time in his career, Greinke posted the best win-loss record of his career (16-6) even though it wasn’t on balance one of his best seasons (3.83 ERA, 1.4 WAR). He struggled mightily in October, posting a 6.48 ERA in 3 starts. The Brewers prevailed in the first round of the playoffs but fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS.

Free Agent Riches for Greinke, Twice

After the 2012 season (split between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Angels), Greinke signed a 6-year, $147 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. One might think that big-market Los Angeles was the last thing the shy Greinke would want but he joined the Dodgers as the second banana in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. The slender right-hander was superb in Los Angeles, going 51-15 (.773) with a 2.30 ERA. In the 2015 season, he finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting (to Jake Arrieta) by posting a brilliant 19-3 record and ML-best 1.66 ERA (translating to a 222 ERA+ and 9.1 WAR).

Following that career best (or second best) season, Greinke opted out of his contract and signed a bigger 6-year, $206.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Again, he followed up a brilliant campaign with a mediocre one, going 13-7 with a 4.37 ERA (2.3 WAR). Greinke was better in 2017 (17-7, 3.20 ERA), in 2018 (15-11, 3.21 ERA) and 2019 (10-4, 2.90 ERA) before a trade deadline deal that sent him to the Astros.

The classic “under the radar” starter immediately settled in as Houston’s 3rd starter; in 10 starts in August and September, he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA. In the postseason, Greinke was uneven to poor, going 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in his first four starts until his superb effort in Game 7.

Greinke’s Hall of Fame Chances

Regarding the Hall of Fame, I would consider it to be extremely likely that Zack Greinke will eventually make it. He has two more years left on his contract. Assuming he stays in Houston, he should pass 225 wins, approach 3,000 strikeouts and surpass a 70.0 WAR. As a matter of fact, if you believe in counting offensive contributions by pitchers, Greinke already has a 71.7 WAR (66.7 for pitching and 5.0 for hitting).

Greinke has hit only .225 in his MLB career (with a .600 OPS) but that’s good by pitcher standards. Additionally, Greinke is one of the top fielding pitchers in the game. He showed the biggest audience possible (in Game 7 of the World Series) what a 5-time Gold Glove pitcher looks like by recording 5 assists in the first 5 innings.

Anyway, to make a couple of comparisons to recently elected Hall of Famers, let’s first take a look at how Zack’s numbers compare to the late Roy Halladay, who was posthumously inducted this summer.

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It’s hard to see much daylight between the two, isn’t it? Halladay has a superior ERA+ and a better win-loss record. Not shown on the graphic, Halladay also was unique as a 21st century pitcher in that he threw 67 complete games and 20 shutouts (Greinke has 16 CGs and just 5 shutouts). Halladay also has a perfect game and a postseason no-hitter. Greinke doesn’t have those.

Still, if Halladay is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, it looks like Greinke might at least be a multi-ballot selection in the future, even if his career ended last night, which is not what’s happening.

Next, considering that Greinke has just completed his age 35 season and has two years left on his contract, take a look at how he stacks up against recent Hall of Fame inductees Tom Glavine and Mike Mussina through their respective age 35 campaigns.

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Again, not a whole lot of difference. Glavine was a first-ballot Hall of Famer thanks to pitching to the age of 42 and thus winning 305 games. Mussina needed six ballots because he chose to retire with “only” 270 wins after his age 39 season.

WAR of 65+ and ERA+ of 125 or higher

Zack Greinke has a career ERA+ of 125 and a pitching WAR of 66.7. There are only four pitchers in baseball history who have matched those numbers and are not in the Hall of Fame…

• Roger Clemens (excluded due to PEDs).
• Curt Schilling (likely to get in next year or in 2021 and would likely already have made it if not for his Twitter habits).
• Kevin Brown (another PED user)
• Clayton Kershaw (still active with the Los Angeles Dodgers)
• Justin Verlander (Greinke’s still-active teammate with Houston)

Speaking of Verlander, here’s how Greinke stacks up against JV.

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As you can see, with respect to the numbers, Verlander is a few ticks ahead but not by much. His greater advantage is that he has the added value of 3,000 strikeouts and three career no-nos. Still, given that he’s still pitching well and is “only” 36, Greinke will probably make his eventual Hall of Fame selection an inevitability, even if not as a first-ballot inductee that most analysts assume Verlander will be.

Oh, by the way, did I mention that Greinke is rich? For whatever it’s (not) worth, he’s out-earned JV by over 20 million dollars ($247,003,000 to $226,515,000). He’s also owed $70 million in the last two years of his contract compared to Verlander’s $66 million owed for the final two seasons on his deal.

Given that Greinke already has numbers that are within range of the Hall of Fame and that he has those two years left on his contract, it’s a near certainty that he’ll make it to Cooperstown.

Zack Greinke Hall of Fame odds: 90%

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